Mamelodi Sundowns vs Orlando Pirates – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football South African MTN 8 Cup Mamelodi Sundowns - Orlando Pirates
Result
1:2 penalties
23/08/2025 at 09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • MTN 8 Cup - Semi-finals

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.590.86
Ball Possession
55%45%
Total shots
1010
Shots on target
32
Big Chances
21
Corner Kicks
27
Passes
81% (295/363)74% (202/274)
Yellow Cards
31
Expected Goals (xG)
0.590.86
xG on target (xGOT)
0.441.23
Total shots
1010
Shots on target
32
Shots off target
43
Blocked Shots
35
Shots inside the Box
74
Shots outside the Box
36
Hit the Woodwork
10
Big Chances
21
Corner Kicks
27
Touches in opposition box
1830
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
28
Free Kicks
1317
Passes
81% (295/363)74% (202/274)
Long passes
60% (36/60)46% (24/52)
Passes in final third
58% (42/73)58% (59/102)
Crosses
17% (1/6)32% (8/25)
Expected assists (xA)
0.590.83
Throw-ins
1820
Fouls
1714
Tackles
61% (14/23)74% (14/19)
Duels won
4351
Clearances
3415
Interceptions
78
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
12
xGOT faced
1.230.44
Goals prevented
0.23-0.56

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 17', 1 - 0, Rayners I. ,
  • 38', Maswanganyi P. , Shandu B. ,
  • 42', Rayners I. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 57', Nduli S. 🟨,
  • 62', Makgopa E. , Mabasa T. ,
  • 62', Nduli S. , Mariko A. ,
  • 65', Matthews T. , Maseko T. ,
  • 71', Williams R. 🟨,
  • 73', 1 - 1, Sebelebele K. , Mabasa T. (A),
  • 78', Maseko T. 🟨,
  • 80', Kekana G. , Lebusa M. ,
  • 80', Adams J. , Modiba A. ,
  • 80', Arthur Sales , Mothiba L. ,
  • 86', Appollis O. , Kwayiba S. ,
  • 86', Mbatha T. , Mbule S. ,
  • 86', Rayners I. , Shalulile P. ,
  • Penalties (1 - 4)
  • 1, Hotto D. (Pen),
  • 1, Mokoena T. (Pen),
  • 2, Mariko A. (Pen),
  • 2, Allende M. (Pen),
  • 3, Mbule S. (Pen),
  • 3, Mothiba L. (Pen),
  • 4, (Pen),

Chances of winning


Mamelodi Sundowns
49.8%
Draw
28.3%
Orlando Pirates
21.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
51.1% 28.1% 20.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.4% 26.9% 19.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Mamelodi Sundowns has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)
  • Orlando Pirates has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mamelodi Sundowns than the current prediction. (+3.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orlando Pirates than the current prediction. (-2%)
  • Mamelodi Sundowns - Orlando Pirates Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.79
    (1.77)
    3.15
    (3.22)
    4.09
    (4.34)
    12%
    (10.6%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
  • Preview Facts
    • 1st leg result: 1-1. 2nd leg.
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mamelodi Sundowns won 1.
    • Mamelodi Sundowns is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Orlando Pirates's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • Recently, Orlando Pirates has had a series of home games.
    • In this match, Mamelodi Sundowns is the team to beat.
    • We predict that Mamelodi Sundowns will win today's game, with odds of 1.8.
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Mamelodi Sundowns won 9 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 26:14. (average 1.3:0.7).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Mamelodi Sundowns won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:9. (average 1.7:0.9).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Mamelodi Sundowns - Orlando Pirates were as follows:
    16.08.2025 Orlando Pirates - Mamelodi Sundowns 1:1
    16.03.2025 Orlando Pirates - Mamelodi Sundowns 2:0
    08.02.2025 Mamelodi Sundowns - Orlando Pirates 4:1
    01.06.2024 Mamelodi Sundowns - Orlando Pirates 1:2
    17.02.2024 Mamelodi Sundowns - Orlando Pirates 1:1
    Latest results of Mamelodi Sundowns
    Latest results of Orlando Pirates
    Draw
    2025

    Quarter-finals
    1Orlando PiratesPolokwane2 : 0
    2Mamelodi SundownsRichards Bay4 : 0
    3StellenboschAmaZulu3 : 2
    4SekhukhuneTS Galaxy3 : 2

    Semi-finals
    1Orlando PiratesMamelodi Sundowns2 : 1, 1 : 1
    2StellenboschSekhukhune1 : 1, 2 : 0

    Final
    1Orlando PiratesStellenbosch