Result
2:1
04/10/2025 at 12:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- HNL - Round 9
- Referee: Culina A. (Cro)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 3 |
 Croatia | MAX Sport 1, MAXtv To Go |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.56 | 1.19 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 41% | 59% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 71% (219/308) | 81% (359/444) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.56 | 1.19 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.29 | 1.23 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 9 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 18 | 22 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 17 | 19 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 71% (219/308) | 81% (359/444) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 39% (28/72) | 41% (18/44) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 61% (64/105) | 68% (93/136) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 22% (2/9) | 26% (6/23) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.47 | 0.72 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 17 | 21 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 19 | 17 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 57% (12/21) | 80% (12/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 70 | 64 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 35 | 29 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.23 | 1.29 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.23 | -0.71 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 7', 1 - 0, Agbekpornu M. ⚽, Suto A. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Babec H. ↓, Jurisic R. ↑,
- 46', Shopov S. 🟨,
- 49', Jurisic R. 🟨,
- 58', Cvijanovic I. 🟨,
- 59', Shopov S. ↓, Toure Y. ↑,
- 59', Sivalec G. ↓, Mitrovic J. ↑,
- 59', 2 - 0, Suto A. ⚽, Nestorovski I. (A),
- 65', Jakupovic A. 🟨,
- 68', Cvijanovic I. ↓, Mkrtchyan S. ↑,
- 68', Bukvic D. ↓, Mikolcic S. ↑,
- 69', Nestorovski I. 🟨,
- 70', Mkrtchyan S. 🟨,
- 71', Nestorovski I. 🟨,
- 77', Colina D. ↓, Zivkovic F. ↑,
- 81', Suto A. 🟨,
- 82', Agbekpornu M. ↓, Crepulja L. ↑,
- 83', Suto A. ↓, Lepinjica I. ↑,
- 90+3', Jagusic A. ↓, Liber A. ↑,
- 90+3', 2 - 1, Jelenic L. ⚽, Mkrtchyan S. (A),
- 90+13', Caimacov M. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Slaven Belupo
37.7% | Draw
28% | Osijek
34.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Slaven Belupo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)Osijek has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)The ML Model estimate for Slaven Belupo aligns with the current prediction.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Osijek than the current prediction. (+0.6%)
Slaven Belupo - Osijek Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.53 ↑
(2.38) |
3.4 ↑
(3.3) |
2.83 ↑
(2.65) |
4.2%
(10.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Slaven Belupo - Osijek?
Users Predictions:
10 users predict this event. Osijek will win (votes: 7 - 70%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Osijek: 41.6% – 98.4%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 8 and 7)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Slaven Belupo won 3.
- In recent matches, Slaven Belupo has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Osijek is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Osijek may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, the opponents have had a series of away games.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- There will not play in Slaven Belupo: Bozic I.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Osijek: Hasic E.
(Injury)
Jugovic V.
(Inactive)
Matkovic A.
(Knee Injury)
Mersinaj J.
(Inactive)
Vrbancic L.
(Red Card)
- There are questionable in Slaven Belupo: Nestorovski I.
(Inactive)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Slaven Belupo won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 14:34. (average 0.7:1.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, Slaven Belupo won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 8:15. (average 0.9:1.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Slaven Belupo won against Osijek?
Slaven Belupo has won 5 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Osijek won against Slaven Belupo?
Osijek has won 7 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Slaven Belupo - Osijek were as follows:
25.07.2025
Osijek
-
Slaven Belupo
4:0
04.05.2025
Slaven Belupo
-
Osijek
1:4
02.04.2025
Slaven Belupo
-
Osijek
1:0
01.03.2025
Osijek
-
Slaven Belupo
1:2
30.11.2024
Slaven Belupo
-
Osijek
3:2
Latest results of Slaven Belupo
Croatian HNL Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | D. Zagreb | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22:8 | 14 | 22 |
| 2 | Hajduk Split | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 17:7 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | Lok. Zagreb | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12:12 | 0 | 16 |
| 4 | Varazdin | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 13:11 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Slaven Belupo | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13:18 | -5 | 13 |
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 9:14 | -5 | 12 |
| 7 | Rijeka | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 12:12 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Gorica | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12:16 | -4 | 11 |
| 9 | Osijek | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9:11 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Vukovar 1991 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9:19 | -10 | 6 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Relegation ~ Prva NL
