Arminia Bielefeld vs Paderborn – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football German 2 Bundesliga
Result
2:2
14/03/2026 at 08:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • 2. Bundesliga - Round 26
  • Referee: Ittrich P. (Ger)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
argentinaArgentinaDisney+, ESPN
armeniaArmeniaFast Sports
australiaAustraliabeIN Connect, ESPN
austriaAustriaSky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Bundesliga 5
bulgariaBulgariaDiema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
canadaCanadaDAZN Canada
colombiaColombiaESPN
croatiaCroatiaSportKlub 7
czech-republicCzech-republicNova Sport 5, Oneplay
denmarkDenmarkViaplay
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV, Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay
germanyGermanySky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Bundesliga 5, WOW
hong-kongHong-kongbeIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Now Player
icelandIcelandViaplay
israelIsraelSport 3, Sport 4
laosLaosbeIN Connect
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
maltaMaltaGO TV, TSN Malta 1
mexicoMexicoSky Sport
netherlandsNetherlandsViaplay
new-zealandNew-zealandbeIN Connect
norwayNorwayTV2 Play, Viaplay
peruPeruDisney+, ESPN
philippinesPhilippinesbeIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
polandPolandEleven Sports 2
portugalPortugalDAZN / App
romaniaRomaniaDigi Online, Digi Sport 4
saudi-arabiaSaudi-arabiaMBC Shahid
serbiaSerbiaArena Premium 5
singaporeSingaporebeIN Sports 3
slovakiaSlovakiaNova Sport 5, Sport TV2, Voyo
swedenSwedenViaplay
switzerlandSwitzerlandSky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Bundesliga 5
thailandThailandbeIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
turkeyTurkeyS Sport+, Tivibu Spor 3
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+, ESPN
worldWorldOnefootball

Match Stats

Expected goals (xG)
3.210.73
Ball possession
40%60%
Total shots
267
Shots on target
94
Big chances
61
Corner kicks
41
Passes
69% (186/270)78% (325/416)
Yellow cards
33
Expected goals (xG)
3.210.73
xG on target (xGOT)
2.370.97
Total shots
267
Shots on target
94
Shots off target
102
Blocked shots
71
Shots inside the box
214
Shots outside the box
53
Hit the woodwork
00
Headed goals
11
Big chances
61
Corner kicks
41
Touches in opposition box
3816
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
34
Free kicks
1214
Passes
69% (186/270)78% (325/416)
Long passes
36% (20/56)42% (25/59)
Passes in final third
52% (44/84)53% (54/101)
Crosses
47% (9/19)17% (3/18)
Expected assists (xA)
1.960.80
Throw ins
1922
Fouls
1412
Tackles
73% (8/11)58% (7/12)
Duels won
5057
Clearances
2929
Interceptions
48
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
10
Goalkeeper saves
25
xGOT faced
0.972.37
Goals prevented
-1.030.37

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 5', Brackelmann C. 🟨,
  • 9', Mehlem M. 🟨,
  • 17', Handwerker T. 🟨,
  • 24', 1 - 0, Grodowski J. ⚽, Sicker A. (A),
  • 45+7', Bauer M. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 2)
  • 53', 1 - 1, Marino S. ⚽, Curda L. (A),
  • 62', 1 - 2, Marino S. ⚽, Baur M. (A),
  • 67', Bilbija F. ↓, Klaas S. ↑,
  • 73', Sarenren Bazee N. ↓, Uldrikis R. ↑,
  • 73', Handwerker T. ↓, Worl M. ↑,
  • 76', Curda L. ↓, Sticker J. ↑,
  • 76', Muller R. ↓, Tigges S. ↑,
  • 80', Boakye B. ↓, Lannert C. ↑,
  • 87', Castaneda S. 🟨,
  • 87', Mehlem M. ↓, Rochelt J. ↑,
  • 87', Grodowski J. ↓, Telalovic S. ↑,
  • 90', 2 - 2, Corboz M. (Penalty Awarded),
  • 90+1', Marino S. ↓, Batzner N. ↑,
  • 90+1', Castaneda S. ↓, Hansen M. ↑,
  • 90+2', Kettemann R. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Arminia Bielefeld
33.8%		Draw
27.4%		Paderborn
38.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
35% 27.9% 37%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.8% 27.8% 37.2%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Arminia Bielefeld has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)
  • Paderborn has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arminia Bielefeld than the current prediction. (+1%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paderborn than the current prediction. (-1.6%)
    •

    Arminia Bielefeld - Paderborn Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.8 ↑
    (2.67)    		 3.43 ↑
    (3.35)    		 2.41 ↓
    (2.53)    		 6.2%
    (7%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
    What is the prediction for Arminia Bielefeld - Paderborn?
  • Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Arminia will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). Paderborn will win (votes: 5 - 38.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 30.8%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Paderborn: 12% – 65%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Arminia (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH 0 - Paderborn (1.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Arminia (votes: 2 - 50%). Paderborn (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 12 and 4).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arminia won 2.
    • Arminia has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Paderborn is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • Arminia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
    • There will not play in Arminia: Hilterman J. (Shoulder Injury) Richter D. (Knee Injury) Russo S. (Yellow Cards) Young I. (Leg Injury)
    • There will not play in Paderborn: Bauerle A. (Inactive) Hoffmeier M. (Knee Injury) Michel S. (Yellow Cards)
    • In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Arminia won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 22:18. (average 2:1.6).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Arminia won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 13:7. (average 2.2:1.2).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Arminia Bielefeld - Paderborn were as follows:
    18.10.2025 Paderborn - Arminia Bielefeld 4:3
    20.05.2023 Arminia Bielefeld - Paderborn 2:2
    08.11.2022 Paderborn - Arminia Bielefeld 0:2
    Latest results of Arminia Bielefeld
    06.03.2026 Schalke 04 - Arminia Bielefeld 1:0 ✺
    28.02.2026 Arminia Bielefeld - Hannover 0:1 ✺
    20.02.2026 Greuther Fürth - Arminia Bielefeld 2:1 ✺
    15.02.2026 Magdeburg - Arminia Bielefeld 0:2 ✺
    08.02.2026 Arminia Bielefeld - Eintracht Braunschweig 3:2 ✺
    Latest results of Paderborn
    07.03.2026 Paderborn - Eintracht Braunschweig 1:1 ✺
    28.02.2026 Kaiserslautern - Paderborn 1:2 ✺
    22.02.2026 Paderborn - Hertha Berlin 5:2 ✺
    15.02.2026 Bochum - Paderborn 0:0 ✺
    07.02.2026 Paderborn - Nürnberg 2:1 ✺
    German 2 Bundesliga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Schalke26156537:231451
    2Darmstadt261310348:291949
    3Elversberg26146644:281648
    4Paderborn26146643:301348
    5Hannover26137645:341146
    6Hertha Berlin26118737:31641
    7Kaiserslautern261241045:38740
    8Karlsruher SC26971040:50-1034
    9Bochum2689936:33333
    10Nurnberg26961134:37-333
    11Dusseldorf26941324:35-1131
    12SG Dynamo Dresden26781144:44029
    13Braunschweig26851329:43-1429
    14Greuther Furth26851339:56-1729
    15Arminia Bielefeld26771238:36228
    16Preussen Munster26681230:44-1426
    17Holstein Kiel26671331:40-925
    18Magdeburg26731636:49-1324

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