Result
4:1
20/09/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 24
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
 Ecuador | El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
 Mexico | Disney+, ESPN 2, Fanatiz |
 Portugal | Canal 11 |
 Russia | MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.38 | 1.07 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 66% | 34% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 23 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 9 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (398/460) | 69% (167/243) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.38 | 1.07 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.57 | 1.32 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 23 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 9 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 0 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 16 | 6 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 28 | 15 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (398/460) | 69% (167/243) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 48% (25/52) | 30% (14/47) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 71% (86/121) | 44% (24/55) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 40% (10/25) | 11% (1/9) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.08 | 0.24 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 19 | 11 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 50% (2/4) | 61% (11/18) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 50 | 47 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 15 | 13 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.32 | 2.57 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.32 | -1.43 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 10', 1 - 0, Raphael Veiga (Pen),
- 23', 1 - 1, Lucas Crispim ⚽,
- 2nd Half (3 - 0)
- 57', 2 - 1, Sosa R. ⚽, Micael (A),
- 59', Lucas Crispim ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
- 59', Lucero J. ↓, Deyverson ↑,
- 70', Allan ↓, Lucas Evangelista ↑,
- 70', Mauricio ↓, Lopez J. ↑,
- 71', Raphael Veiga ↓, Vitor Roque ↑,
- 74', Yago Pikachu ↓, Marinho ↑,
- 74', Breno Lopes ↓, Pochettino T. ↑,
- 74', Torres F. ↓, Pereira A. ↑,
- 75', Sosa R. ↓, Felipe Anderson ↑,
- 80', Micael 🟨,
- 82', 3 - 1, Pereira A. ⚽, Felipe Anderson (A),
- 85', Pereira M. ↓, Bareiro A. ↑,
- 90', 4 - 1, Pereira A. ⚽, Jefte (A),
- 90+1', Britez E. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Palmeiras
71.5% | Draw
18.6% | Fortaleza
9.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Palmeiras - Fortaleza Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.35 ↓
(1.43) |
5.38 ↑
(4.4) |
10.22 ↑
(7.45) |
2.3%
(6.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Palmeiras - Fortaleza?
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Palmeiras will win (votes: 8 - 88.9%). Fortaleza will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Palmeiras: 68.4% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Fortaleza (votes: 1 - 33.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 2.
- Palmeiras is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Fortaleza is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Palmeiras may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Palmeiras is the clear favorite.
- There will not play in Palmeiras: Paulinho
(Leg Injury)
- There will not play in Fortaleza: Benevenuto
(Inactive)
Kuscevic B.
(Hamstring Injury)
Moises
(Thigh Injury)
Tinga
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Fortaleza: Brenno
(Finger Injury)
Herrera J.
(Knee Injury)
Lucas Sasha
(Calf Injury)
Yago Pikachu
(Injury)
- We predict that Palmeiras will win today's game, with odds of 1.4.
- In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 26:16. (average 1.7:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Palmeiras won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 21:6. (average 3:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Palmeiras won against Fortaleza?
Palmeiras has won 4 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Fortaleza won against Palmeiras?
Fortaleza has won 2 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Palmeiras - Fortaleza were as follows:
20.04.2025
Fortaleza
-
Palmeiras
1:2
26.10.2024
Palmeiras
-
Fortaleza
2:2
26.06.2024
Fortaleza
-
Palmeiras
3:0
26.11.2023
Fortaleza
-
Palmeiras
2:2
22.07.2023
Palmeiras
-
Fortaleza
3:1
Latest results of Palmeiras
Latest results of Fortaleza
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Flamengo RJ ✔ | 38 | 23 | 10 | 5 | 78:27 | 51 | 79 |
| 2 | Palmeiras ✔ | 37 | 22 | 7 | 8 | 63:32 | 31 | 73 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro ✔ | 37 | 19 | 13 | 5 | 55:28 | 27 | 70 |
| 4 | Mirassol ✔ | 38 | 18 | 13 | 7 | 63:39 | 24 | 67 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 37 | 18 | 7 | 12 | 48:39 | 9 | 61 |
| 6 | Bahia | 37 | 17 | 9 | 11 | 50:44 | 6 | 60 |
| 7 | Botafogo RJ | 37 | 16 | 12 | 9 | 54:36 | 18 | 60 |
| 8 | Sao Paulo ✔ | 37 | 14 | 9 | 14 | 43:46 | -3 | 51 |
| 9 | Bragantino ✔ | 37 | 14 | 6 | 17 | 44:54 | -10 | 48 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 37 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 41:46 | -5 | 46 |
| 11 | Gremio | 37 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 43:50 | -7 | 46 |
| 12 | Vasco | 37 | 13 | 6 | 18 | 55:55 | 0 | 45 |
| 13 | Atletico-MG | 37 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 38:44 | -6 | 45 |
| 14 | Santos | 37 | 11 | 11 | 15 | 42:50 | -8 | 44 |
| 15 | Ceara | 37 | 11 | 10 | 16 | 33:37 | -4 | 43 |
| 16 | Fortaleza | 37 | 11 | 10 | 16 | 41:54 | -13 | 43 |
| 17 | Vitoria | 37 | 10 | 12 | 15 | 34:52 | -18 | 42 |
| 18 | Internacional | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 41:56 | -15 | 41 |
| 19 | Juventude ✔ | 37 | 9 | 7 | 21 | 34:68 | -34 | 34 |
| 20 | Sport Recife ✔ | 37 | 2 | 11 | 24 | 28:71 | -43 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
Clinched Spots for Teams
Flamengo RJ is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Copa Libertadores (Group Stage )
Palmeiras is Qualified for Copa Libertadores (Group Stage )
Cruzeiro is Qualified for Copa Libertadores (Group Stage )
Mirassol is Qualified for Copa Libertadores (Group Stage )
Sao Paulo is Qualified for Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage )
Bragantino is Qualified for Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage )
Juventude is Relegated to Serie B Superbet
Sport Recife is Relegated to Serie B Superbet
