Palmeiras vs Fortaleza – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie A Palmeiras - Fortaleza
Result
4:1
20/09/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie A Betano - Round 24
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
chinaChinaK-Ball
ecuadorEcuadorEl Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
mexicoMexicoDisney+, ESPN 2, Fanatiz
portugalPortugalCanal 11
russiaRussiaMATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
usaUsaFanatiz

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.381.07
Ball Possession
66%34%
Total shots
238
Shots on target
95
Big Chances
32
Corner Kicks
112
Passes
87% (398/460)69% (167/243)
Yellow Cards
11
Expected Goals (xG)
2.381.07
xG on target (xGOT)
2.571.32
Total shots
238
Shots on target
95
Shots off target
80
Blocked Shots
63
Shots inside the Box
166
Shots outside the Box
72
Hit the Woodwork
10
Big Chances
32
Corner Kicks
112
Touches in opposition box
2815
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
23
Free Kicks
1511
Passes
87% (398/460)69% (167/243)
Long passes
48% (25/52)30% (14/47)
Passes in final third
71% (86/121)44% (24/55)
Crosses
40% (10/25)11% (1/9)
Expected assists (xA)
1.080.24
Throw-ins
1911
Fouls
1115
Tackles
50% (2/4)61% (11/18)
Duels won
5047
Clearances
1513
Interceptions
47
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
45
xGOT faced
1.322.57
Goals prevented
0.32-1.43

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 1)
  • 10', 1 - 0, Raphael Veiga (Pen),
  • 23', 1 - 1, Lucas Crispim ,
  • 2nd Half (3 - 0)
  • 57', 2 - 1, Sosa R. , Micael (A),
  • 59', Lucas Crispim , Rodrigo ,
  • 59', Lucero J. , Deyverson ,
  • 70', Allan , Lucas Evangelista ,
  • 70', Mauricio , Lopez J. ,
  • 71', Raphael Veiga , Vitor Roque ,
  • 74', Yago Pikachu , Marinho ,
  • 74', Breno Lopes , Pochettino T. ,
  • 74', Torres F. , Pereira A. ,
  • 75', Sosa R. , Felipe Anderson ,
  • 80', Micael 🟨,
  • 82', 3 - 1, Pereira A. , Felipe Anderson (A),
  • 85', Pereira M. , Bareiro A. ,
  • 90', 4 - 1, Pereira A. , Jefte (A),
  • 90+1', Britez E. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Palmeiras
71.5%
Draw
18.6%
Fortaleza
9.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
66% 21.4% 12.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69% 20.5% 12.1%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Palmeiras's performance.
  • Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (-2.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+2.2%)
  • Palmeiras - Fortaleza Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.35
    (1.43)
    5.38
    (4.4)
    10.22
    (7.45)
    2.3%
    (6.3%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
    What is the prediction for Palmeiras - Fortaleza?
  • Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Palmeiras will win (votes: 8 - 88.9%). Fortaleza will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Palmeiras: 68.4%100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Fortaleza (votes: 1 - 33.3%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 2.
    • Palmeiras is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Fortaleza is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • Palmeiras may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, Palmeiras is the clear favorite.
    • There will not play in Palmeiras: Paulinho (Leg Injury)
    • There will not play in Fortaleza: Benevenuto (Inactive) Kuscevic B. (Hamstring Injury) Moises (Thigh Injury) Tinga (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Fortaleza: Brenno (Finger Injury) Herrera J. (Knee Injury) Lucas Sasha (Calf Injury) Yago Pikachu (Injury)
    • We predict that Palmeiras will win today's game, with odds of 1.4.
    • In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 26:16. (average 1.7:1.1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Palmeiras won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 21:6. (average 3:0.9).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Palmeiras - Fortaleza were as follows:
    20.04.2025 Fortaleza - Palmeiras 1:2
    26.10.2024 Palmeiras - Fortaleza 2:2
    26.06.2024 Fortaleza - Palmeiras 3:0
    26.11.2023 Fortaleza - Palmeiras 2:2
    22.07.2023 Palmeiras - Fortaleza 3:1
    Latest results of Palmeiras
    Latest results of Fortaleza
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Palmeiras28194553:262761
    2Flamengo RJ28187356:154161
    3Cruzeiro29168542:212156
    4Mirassol301510552:312155
    5Bahia30147940:34649
    6Botafogo RJ29137939:261346
    7Fluminense291351136:35144
    8Sao Paulo301181133:33041
    9Vasco291161246:41539
    10Corinthians301091132:35-339
    11Bragantino291061334:44-1036
    12Atletico-MG29991127:32-536
    13Gremio29991130:37-736
    14Ceara29981227:28-135
    15Internacional30981335:43-835
    16Santos28871328:40-1231
    17Vitoria307101327:44-1731
    18Juventude29751723:53-3026
    19Fortaleza28661626:44-1824
    20Sport Recife292111622:46-2417

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet