Result
4:1
20/09/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 24
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
---|
Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping |
China | K-Ball |
Ecuador | El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
Mexico | Disney+, ESPN 2, Fanatiz |
Portugal | Canal 11 |
Russia | MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
---|
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
2.38 | 1.07 |
Ball Possession |
---|
66% | 34% |
Total shots |
---|
23 | 8 |
Shots on target |
---|
9 | 5 |
Big Chances |
---|
3 | 2 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
11 | 2 |
Passes |
---|
87% (398/460) | 69% (167/243) |
Yellow Cards |
---|
1 | 1 |
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
2.38 | 1.07 |
xG on target (xGOT) |
---|
2.57 | 1.32 |
Total shots |
---|
23 | 8 |
Shots on target |
---|
9 | 5 |
Shots off target |
---|
8 | 0 |
Blocked Shots |
---|
6 | 3 |
Shots inside the Box |
---|
16 | 6 |
Shots outside the Box |
---|
7 | 2 |
Hit the Woodwork |
---|
1 | 0 |
Big Chances |
---|
3 | 2 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
11 | 2 |
Touches in opposition box |
---|
28 | 15 |
Accurate through passes |
---|
0 | 0 |
Offsides |
---|
2 | 3 |
Free Kicks |
---|
15 | 11 |
Passes |
---|
87% (398/460) | 69% (167/243) |
Long passes |
---|
48% (25/52) | 30% (14/47) |
Passes in final third |
---|
71% (86/121) | 44% (24/55) |
Crosses |
---|
40% (10/25) | 11% (1/9) |
Expected assists (xA) |
---|
1.08 | 0.24 |
Throw-ins |
---|
19 | 11 |
Fouls |
---|
11 | 15 |
Tackles |
---|
50% (2/4) | 61% (11/18) |
Duels won |
---|
50 | 47 |
Clearances |
---|
15 | 13 |
Interceptions |
---|
4 | 7 |
Errors leading to shot |
---|
0 | 0 |
Errors leading to goal |
---|
0 | 0 |
Goalkeeper Saves |
---|
4 | 5 |
xGOT faced |
---|
1.32 | 2.57 |
Goals prevented |
---|
0.32 | -1.43 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 10', 1 - 0, Raphael Veiga (Pen),
- 23', 1 - 1, Lucas Crispim ⚽,
- 2nd Half (3 - 0)
- 57', 2 - 1, Sosa R. ⚽, Micael (A),
- 59', Lucas Crispim ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
- 59', Lucero J. ↓, Deyverson ↑,
- 70', Allan ↓, Lucas Evangelista ↑,
- 70', Mauricio ↓, Lopez J. ↑,
- 71', Raphael Veiga ↓, Vitor Roque ↑,
- 74', Yago Pikachu ↓, Marinho ↑,
- 74', Breno Lopes ↓, Pochettino T. ↑,
- 74', Torres F. ↓, Pereira A. ↑,
- 75', Sosa R. ↓, Felipe Anderson ↑,
- 80', Micael 🟨,
- 82', 3 - 1, Pereira A. ⚽, Felipe Anderson (A),
- 85', Pereira M. ↓, Bareiro A. ↑,
- 90', 4 - 1, Pereira A. ⚽, Jefte (A),
- 90+1', Britez E. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Palmeiras 71.5% | Draw 18.6% | Fortaleza 9.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Palmeiras's performance.Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (-2.5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+2.2%)
Palmeiras - Fortaleza Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now (Initially) |
1.35 ↓ (1.43) |
5.38 ↑ (4.4) |
10.22 ↑ (7.45) |
2.3% (6.3%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Palmeiras - Fortaleza?
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Palmeiras will win (votes: 8 - 88.9%). Fortaleza will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Palmeiras: 68.4% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Fortaleza (votes: 1 - 33.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 2.
- Palmeiras is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Fortaleza is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Palmeiras may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Palmeiras is the clear favorite.
- There will not play in Palmeiras: Paulinho
(Leg Injury)
- There will not play in Fortaleza: Benevenuto
(Inactive)
Kuscevic B.
(Hamstring Injury)
Moises
(Thigh Injury)
Tinga
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Fortaleza: Brenno
(Finger Injury)
Herrera J.
(Knee Injury)
Lucas Sasha
(Calf Injury)
Yago Pikachu
(Injury)
- We predict that Palmeiras will win today's game, with odds of 1.4.
- In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 26:16. (average 1.7:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Palmeiras won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 21:6. (average 3:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Palmeiras won against Fortaleza?
Palmeiras has won 4 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Fortaleza won against Palmeiras?
Fortaleza has won 2 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Palmeiras - Fortaleza were as follows:
20.04.2025
Fortaleza
-
Palmeiras
1:2
26.10.2024
Palmeiras
-
Fortaleza
2:2
26.06.2024
Fortaleza
-
Palmeiras
3:0
26.11.2023
Fortaleza
-
Palmeiras
2:2
22.07.2023
Palmeiras
-
Fortaleza
3:1
Latest results of Palmeiras
Latest results of Fortaleza
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
1 | Flamengo RJ | 25 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 50:12 | 38 | 55 |
2 | Palmeiras | 24 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 39:19 | 20 | 52 |
3 | Cruzeiro | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 39:19 | 20 | 51 |
4 | Botafogo RJ | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 37:23 | 14 | 43 |
5 | Mirassol | 25 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 42:25 | 17 | 43 |
6 | Bahia | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 33:30 | 3 | 40 |
7 | Fluminense | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 33:31 | 2 | 38 |
8 | Sao Paulo | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 29:25 | 4 | 38 |
9 | Bragantino | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 32:38 | -6 | 33 |
10 | Gremio | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 28:32 | -4 | 33 |
11 | Internacional | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 32:38 | -6 | 32 |
12 | Ceara | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 23:24 | -1 | 31 |
13 | Vasco | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 38:38 | 0 | 30 |
14 | Corinthians | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 26:32 | -6 | 30 |
15 | Atletico-MG | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 22:29 | -7 | 29 |
16 | Santos | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 25:35 | -10 | 28 |
17 | Vitoria | 26 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 21:38 | -17 | 25 |
18 | Juventude | 25 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 20:46 | -26 | 23 |
19 | Fortaleza | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 24:40 | -16 | 21 |
20 | Sport Recife | 24 | 2 | 9 | 13 | 18:37 | -19 | 15 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet