Result
4:1
20/09/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 24
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
 Ecuador | El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
 Mexico | Disney+, ESPN 2, Fanatiz |
 Portugal | Canal 11 |
 Russia | MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.38 | 1.07 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 66% | 34% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 23 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 9 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (398/460) | 69% (167/243) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.38 | 1.07 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.57 | 1.32 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 23 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 9 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 0 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 16 | 6 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 28 | 15 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (398/460) | 69% (167/243) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 48% (25/52) | 30% (14/47) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 71% (86/121) | 44% (24/55) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 40% (10/25) | 11% (1/9) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.08 | 0.24 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 19 | 11 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 50% (2/4) | 61% (11/18) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 50 | 47 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 15 | 13 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.32 | 2.57 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.32 | -1.43 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 10', 1 - 0, Raphael Veiga (Pen),
- 23', 1 - 1, Lucas Crispim ⚽,
- 2nd Half (3 - 0)
- 57', 2 - 1, Sosa R. ⚽, Micael (A),
- 59', Lucas Crispim ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
- 59', Lucero J. ↓, Deyverson ↑,
- 70', Allan ↓, Lucas Evangelista ↑,
- 70', Mauricio ↓, Lopez J. ↑,
- 71', Raphael Veiga ↓, Vitor Roque ↑,
- 74', Yago Pikachu ↓, Marinho ↑,
- 74', Breno Lopes ↓, Pochettino T. ↑,
- 74', Torres F. ↓, Pereira A. ↑,
- 75', Sosa R. ↓, Felipe Anderson ↑,
- 80', Micael 🟨,
- 82', 3 - 1, Pereira A. ⚽, Felipe Anderson (A),
- 85', Pereira M. ↓, Bareiro A. ↑,
- 90', 4 - 1, Pereira A. ⚽, Jefte (A),
- 90+1', Britez E. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Palmeiras
71.5% | Draw
18.6% | Fortaleza
9.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Palmeiras's performance.Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (-2.5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+2.2%)
Palmeiras - Fortaleza Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.35 ↓
(1.43) |
5.38 ↑
(4.4) |
10.22 ↑
(7.45) |
2.3%
(6.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Palmeiras - Fortaleza?
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Palmeiras will win (votes: 8 - 88.9%). Fortaleza will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Palmeiras: 68.4% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Fortaleza (votes: 1 - 33.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 2.
- Palmeiras is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Fortaleza is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Palmeiras may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Palmeiras is the clear favorite.
- There will not play in Palmeiras: Paulinho
(Leg Injury)
- There will not play in Fortaleza: Benevenuto
(Inactive)
Kuscevic B.
(Hamstring Injury)
Moises
(Thigh Injury)
Tinga
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Fortaleza: Brenno
(Finger Injury)
Herrera J.
(Knee Injury)
Lucas Sasha
(Calf Injury)
Yago Pikachu
(Injury)
- We predict that Palmeiras will win today's game, with odds of 1.4.
- In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 26:16. (average 1.7:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Palmeiras won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 21:6. (average 3:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Palmeiras won against Fortaleza?
Palmeiras has won 4 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Fortaleza won against Palmeiras?
Fortaleza has won 2 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Palmeiras - Fortaleza were as follows:
20.04.2025
Fortaleza
-
Palmeiras
1:2
26.10.2024
Palmeiras
-
Fortaleza
2:2
26.06.2024
Fortaleza
-
Palmeiras
3:0
26.11.2023
Fortaleza
-
Palmeiras
2:2
22.07.2023
Palmeiras
-
Fortaleza
3:1
Latest results of Palmeiras
Latest results of Fortaleza
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 28 | 19 | 4 | 5 | 53:26 | 27 | 61 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | 28 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 56:15 | 41 | 61 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 29 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 42:21 | 21 | 56 |
| 4 | Mirassol | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 52:31 | 21 | 55 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 40:34 | 6 | 49 |
| 6 | Botafogo RJ | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 39:26 | 13 | 46 |
| 7 | Fluminense | 29 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 36:35 | 1 | 44 |
| 8 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 33:33 | 0 | 41 |
| 9 | Vasco | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 46:41 | 5 | 39 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 32:35 | -3 | 39 |
| 11 | Bragantino | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 34:44 | -10 | 36 |
| 12 | Atletico-MG | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 27:32 | -5 | 36 |
| 13 | Gremio | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 30:37 | -7 | 36 |
| 14 | Ceara | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 27:28 | -1 | 35 |
| 15 | Internacional | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 35:43 | -8 | 35 |
| 16 | Santos | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 28:40 | -12 | 31 |
| 17 | Vitoria | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 27:44 | -17 | 31 |
| 18 | Juventude | 29 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 23:53 | -30 | 26 |
| 19 | Fortaleza | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 26:44 | -18 | 24 |
| 20 | Sport Recife | 29 | 2 | 11 | 16 | 22:46 | -24 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
