Palmeiras vs Grêmio – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie A Palmeiras - Grêmio
Result
1:0
26/07/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie A Betano - Round 17
  • Referee: Zanovelli P. (Bra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Sport 2
brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
chinaChinaK-Ball
ecuadorEcuadorEl Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
germanyGermanySportdigital FUSSBALL
portugalPortugalCanal 11
russiaRussiaMATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
switzerlandSwitzerlandSunrise TV, Sunrise TV
turkeyTurkeySpor Smart 2
usaUsaFanatiz

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.570.39
Ball Possession
61%39%
Total shots
105
Shots on target
33
Big Chances
03
Corner Kicks
23
Passes
88% (494/564)81% (293/362)
Yellow Cards
12
Expected Goals (xG)
0.570.39
xG on target (xGOT)
0.660.65
Total shots
105
Shots on target
33
Shots off target
51
Blocked Shots
21
Shots inside the Box
63
Shots outside the Box
42
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
03
Corner Kicks
23
Touches in opposition box
159
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
01
Free Kicks
2020
Passes
88% (494/564)81% (293/362)
Long passes
51% (27/53)39% (21/54)
Passes in final third
76% (110/144)51% (29/57)
Crosses
30% (3/10)10% (1/10)
Expected assists (xA)
0.570.51
Throw-ins
2117
Fouls
2020
Tackles
68% (13/19)61% (11/18)
Duels won
5559
Clearances
1723
Interceptions
610
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
32
xGOT faced
0.650.66
Goals prevented
0.65-0.34

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 3', 1 - 0, Torres F. , Mauricio (A),
  • 26', Pavon C. 🟨,
  • 34', Martinez E. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 46', Alex Santana , Camilo Reijers ,
  • 58', Luighi , Raphael Veiga ,
  • 58', Mauricio , Sosa R. ,
  • 58', Vitor Roque , Flaco Lopez ,
  • 69', Pavon C. , Alysson ,
  • 70', Lucas Evangelista , Moreno A. ,
  • 70', Olivera C. , Aravena A. ,
  • 77', Freitas dos Santos R. , Edenilson ,
  • 82', Torres F. , Ramon ,
  • 83', Gustavo Martins 🟨,
  • 87', Dodi , Jardiel ,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Palmeiras
70.5%
Draw
19.5%
Grêmio
10%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
62.4% 23.6% 14%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.7% 23.1% 13.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Palmeiras's performance.
  • Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (-6.8%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Palmeiras that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+3.7%)
  • Palmeiras - Grêmio Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.37
    (1.51)
    5.05
    (4)
    10.18
    (6.74)
    2.9%
    (5.9%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
  • What is the prediction for Palmeiras - Grêmio?
  • Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Palmeiras will win (votes: 10 - 71.4%). Grêmio will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Palmeiras: 47.7%95.1%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Palmeiras will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 14).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 3.
    • Palmeiras is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Grêmio's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • Grêmio may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Recently, Palmeiras has had a series of home games.
    • In this match, Palmeiras is the obvious favorite.
    • There will not play in Palmeiras: Allan (Red Card) Bruno Rodrigues (Knee Injury) Murilo (Thigh Injury)
    • There will not play in Grêmio: Cuellar G. (Muscle Injury) Joao Lucas (Muscle Injury) Joao Pedro (Ankle Injury) Rodrigo Ely (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in Palmeiras: Felipe Anderson (Injury) Figueiredo (Inactive) Paulinho (Leg Injury)
    • There are questionable in Grêmio: Villasanti M. (Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 11 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 31:16. (average 1.6:0.8).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Palmeiras won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:7. (average 1.6:0.7).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Palmeiras - Grêmio were as follows:
    08.11.2024 Palmeiras - Grêmio 1:0
    04.07.2024 Grêmio - Palmeiras 2:2
    21.09.2023 Grêmio - Palmeiras 1:0
    10.05.2023 Palmeiras - Grêmio 4:1
    Latest results of Palmeiras
    23.07.2025 Fluminense - Palmeiras 1:2
    16.07.2025 Palmeiras - Mirassol 1:1
    13.07.2025 Santos - Palmeiras Postponed
    04.07.2025 Palmeiras - Chelsea 1:2
    Latest results of Grêmio
    24.07.2025 Grêmio - Botafogo RJ Postponed
    23.07.2025 Grêmio - Alianza Lima 1:1
    19.07.2025 Vasco da Gama - Grêmio 1:1
    16.07.2025 Alianza Lima - Grêmio 2:0
    13.07.2025 Cruzeiro - Grêmio 4:1
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Flamengo RJ19134236:92743
    2Palmeiras18123324:15939
    3Cruzeiro20115432:141838
    4Bahia1896325:17833
    5Botafogo RJ1885523:111229
    6Mirassol1878329:191029
    7Sao Paulo2078524:22229
    8Fluminense1883723:24-127
    9Bragantino2083922:26-427
    10Ceara1974819:19025
    11Atletico-MG1866620:21-124
    12Internacional1966722:26-424
    13Gremio1965819:25-623
    14Corinthians2057819:25-622
    15Santos19631020:29-921
    16Vasco19541025:26-119
    17Vitoria20310718:24-619
    18Juventude19531117:38-2118
    19Fortaleza19361019:31-1215
    20Sport Recife18171012:27-1510

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet