Result
2:1
02/04/2026 at 20:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 9
- Referee: Arleu B. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Flow Eventos |
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Ecuador | Canal del Futbol |
 Mexico | Azteca Deportes |
 North-central-america | Flow Sports 1 Caribbean |
 Paraguay | Flow Eventos |
 Peru | Liga 1 Max |
 Portugal | Canal 11 |
 Russia | MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
 Uruguay | Flow |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.63 | 0.60 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 60% | 40% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (418/486) | 78% (255/328) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.63 | 0.60 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.78 | 1.13 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 7 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 30 | 13 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (418/486) | 78% (255/328) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 52% (22/42) | 45% (30/66) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 77% (115/150) | 60% (39/65) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 13% (3/24) | 25% (3/12) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.68 | 0.44 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 10 | 21 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 77% (10/13) | 36% (5/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 51 | 40 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 15 | 26 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.13 | 0.78 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.13 | -1.22 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 40', Pedro Gabriel 🟨,
- 44', 1 - 0, Marlon Freitas ⚽, Andreas Pereira (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Noriega E. ↓, Dodi ↑,
- 46', Monsalve M. ↓, Gabriel Mec ↑,
- 46', Tete ↓, Amuzu F. ↑,
- 54', 1 - 1, Carlos Vinicius ⚽, Gustavo Martins (A),
- 67', Jefte ↓, Arthur Gabriel ↑,
- 71', Mauricio ↓, Felipe Anderson ↑,
- 72', Lopez J. ↓, Sosa R. ↑,
- 72', 2 - 1, Marlon Freitas ⚽,
- 74', Gustavo Martins 🟨,
- 76', Enamorado J. ↓, Braithwaite M. ↑,
- 80', Nardoni J. ↓, Bernardo Zortea ↑,
- 84', Arias J. ↓, Khellven ↑,
- 84', Allan Elias ↓, Lucas Evangelista ↑,
- 86', Dodi 🟨,
Chances of winning
Palmeiras
61.9% | Draw
22.4% | Grêmio
15.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (+0.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+0.2%)
Palmeiras - Grêmio Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.53 ↓
(1.55) |
4.19 ↓
(4.24) |
5.89
(5.89) |
6.1%
(5.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Palmeiras - Grêmio?
Users Predictions:
11 users predict this event. Palmeiras will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Grêmio will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Palmeiras: 46.4% – 99%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 2.
- Palmeiras is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Grêmio has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Palmeiras may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Palmeiras is a strong favorite.
- There will not play in Palmeiras: Figueiredo
(Injury)
Paulinho
(Leg Injury)
- There will not play in Grêmio: Marlon
(Broken ankle)
Villasanti M.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Palmeiras: Piquerez J.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Grêmio: Joao Pedro
(Muscle Injury)
- We predict that Palmeiras will win today's game, with odds of 1.52.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 12 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 32:16. (average 1.6:0.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Palmeiras won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:6. (average 1.6:0.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Palmeiras won against Grêmio?
Palmeiras has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Grêmio won against Palmeiras?
Grêmio has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Palmeiras - Grêmio were as follows:
25.11.2025
Grêmio
-
Palmeiras
3:2
26.07.2025
Palmeiras
-
Grêmio
1:0
08.11.2024
Palmeiras
-
Grêmio
1:0
04.07.2024
Grêmio
-
Palmeiras
2:2
21.09.2023
Grêmio
-
Palmeiras
1:0
Latest results of Palmeiras
Brazilian Serie A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 21:10 | 11 | 26 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 18:10 | 8 | 20 |
| 3 | Sao Paulo | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15:9 | 6 | 20 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 18:13 | 5 | 20 |
| 5 | Bahia | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15:10 | 5 | 20 |
| 6 | Athletico-PR | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 17:13 | 4 | 19 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 13:12 | 1 | 16 |
| 8 | Atletico-MG | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 14:13 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 11:12 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | Vitoria | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11:14 | -3 | 14 |
| 11 | Botafogo RJ | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 18:21 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 | Gremio | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 14:14 | 0 | 13 |
| 13 | Vasco | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 16:17 | -1 | 13 |
| 14 | Internacional | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 9:10 | -1 | 13 |
| 15 | Santos | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 14:16 | -2 | 13 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 8:11 | -3 | 11 |
| 17 | Cruzeiro | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14:21 | -7 | 10 |
| 18 | Remo | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11:18 | -7 | 8 |
| 19 | Chapecoense-SC | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 10:18 | -8 | 8 |
| 20 | Mirassol | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11:16 | -5 | 6 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
