Result
1:0
26/07/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 17
- Referee: Zanovelli P. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 2 |
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
 Ecuador | El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
 Germany | Sportdigital FUSSBALL |
 Portugal | Canal 11 |
 Russia | MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
 Switzerland | Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
 Turkey | Spor Smart 2 |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.57 | 0.39 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 61% | 39% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 5 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (494/564) | 81% (293/362) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.57 | 0.39 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.66 | 0.65 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 5 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 15 | 9 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 20 | 20 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (494/564) | 81% (293/362) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 51% (27/53) | 39% (21/54) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 76% (110/144) | 51% (29/57) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 30% (3/10) | 10% (1/10) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.57 | 0.51 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 21 | 17 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 20 | 20 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 68% (13/19) | 61% (11/18) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 55 | 59 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 17 | 23 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.65 | 0.66 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.65 | -0.34 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 3', 1 - 0, Torres F. ⚽, Mauricio (A),
- 26', Pavon C. 🟨,
- 34', Martinez E. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Alex Santana ↓, Camilo Reijers ↑,
- 58', Luighi ↓, Raphael Veiga ↑,
- 58', Mauricio ↓, Sosa R. ↑,
- 58', Vitor Roque ↓, Flaco Lopez ↑,
- 69', Pavon C. ↓, Alysson ↑,
- 70', Lucas Evangelista ↓, Moreno A. ↑,
- 70', Olivera C. ↓, Aravena A. ↑,
- 77', Freitas dos Santos R. ↓, Edenilson ↑,
- 82', Torres F. ↓, Ramon ↑,
- 83', Gustavo Martins 🟨,
- 87', Dodi ↓, Jardiel ↑,
Chances of winning
Palmeiras
70.5% | Draw
19.5% | Grêmio
10% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Palmeiras's performance.Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (-6.8%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Palmeiras that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+3.7%)
Palmeiras - Grêmio Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.37 ↓
(1.51) |
5.05 ↑
(4) |
10.18 ↑
(6.74) |
2.9%
(5.9%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Palmeiras - Grêmio?
Users Predictions:
14 users predict this event. Palmeiras will win (votes: 10 - 71.4%). Grêmio will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Palmeiras: 47.7% – 95.1%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Palmeiras will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 14).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 3.
- Palmeiras is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Grêmio's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Grêmio may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Palmeiras has had a series of home games.
- In this match, Palmeiras is the obvious favorite.
- There will not play in Palmeiras: Allan
(Red Card)
Bruno Rodrigues
(Knee Injury)
Murilo
(Thigh Injury)
- There will not play in Grêmio: Cuellar G.
(Muscle Injury)
Joao Lucas
(Muscle Injury)
Joao Pedro
(Ankle Injury)
Rodrigo Ely
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Palmeiras: Felipe Anderson
(Injury)
Figueiredo
(Inactive)
Paulinho
(Leg Injury)
- There are questionable in Grêmio: Villasanti M.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 11 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 31:16. (average 1.6:0.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Palmeiras won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:7. (average 1.6:0.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Palmeiras won against Grêmio?
Palmeiras has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Grêmio won against Palmeiras?
Grêmio has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Palmeiras - Grêmio were as follows:
08.11.2024
Palmeiras
-
Grêmio
1:0
04.07.2024
Grêmio
-
Palmeiras
2:2
21.09.2023
Grêmio
-
Palmeiras
1:0
10.05.2023
Palmeiras
-
Grêmio
4:1
Latest results of Palmeiras
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Flamengo RJ | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 45:10 | 35 | 47 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 21 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 32:17 | 15 | 46 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 35:15 | 20 | 44 |
| 4 | Mirassol | 21 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 36:20 | 16 | 38 |
| 5 | Bahia | 20 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 28:22 | 6 | 36 |
| 6 | Botafogo RJ | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 30:13 | 17 | 35 |
| 7 | Sao Paulo | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 26:23 | 3 | 32 |
| 8 | Bragantino | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 28:33 | -5 | 31 |
| 9 | Corinthians | 23 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 24:28 | -4 | 29 |
| 10 | Fluminense | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 25:29 | -4 | 28 |
| 11 | Internacional | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 26:33 | -7 | 27 |
| 12 | Ceara | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 19:20 | -1 | 26 |
| 13 | Gremio | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 20:27 | -7 | 25 |
| 14 | Atletico-MG | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 20:24 | -4 | 24 |
| 15 | Vasco | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 30:31 | -1 | 22 |
| 16 | Santos | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 20:31 | -11 | 22 |
| 17 | Vitoria | 23 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 19:34 | -15 | 22 |
| 18 | Juventude | 21 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 19:41 | -22 | 21 |
| 19 | Fortaleza | 22 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 22:34 | -12 | 18 |
| 20 | Sport Recife | 21 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 15:34 | -19 | 11 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
