Result
3:2
25/11/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 36
- Referee: Sampaio S. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Globoplay, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
 Israel | Sport 4 |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 Portugal | Canal 11 |
 Russia | MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.68 | 1.67 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 46% | 54% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 20 | 22 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 10 | 6 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (335/387) | 88% (407/465) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.68 | 1.67 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 3.07 | 1.51 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 20 | 22 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 10 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 11 | 12 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 10 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 22 | 24 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (335/387) | 88% (407/465) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 53% (20/38) | 51% (23/45) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 81% (60/74) | 79% (107/136) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 11% (2/18) | 38% (5/13) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.53 | 0.95 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 11 | 13 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 43% (6/14) | 77% (10/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 42 | 40 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 21 | 18 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.51 | 3.07 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.49 | 0.07 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 24', 0 - 1, Torres F. ⚽, Sosa R. (A),
- 25', Carlos Vinicius 🟨,
- 34', Marlon 🟨,
- 45+3', 1 - 1, Amuzu F. ⚽, Wagner Leonardo (A),
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 46', Pavon C. ↓, Alysson ↑,
- 46', Edenilson ↓, Willian ↑,
- 60', Moreno A. 🟨,
- 61', 2 - 1, Carlos Vinicius (Pen),
- 66', Torres F. 🟨,
- 67', Sosa R. ↓, Bruno Rodrigues ↑,
- 67', Mauricio ↓, Luighi ↑,
- 72', Micael ↓, Riquelme Fillipi ↑,
- 76', Amuzu F. 🟨,
- 77', Amuzu F. ↓, Cristaldo F. ↑,
- 77', Dodi ↓, Cuellar G. ↑,
- 78', Luighi 🟨,
- 79', Torres F. ↓, Allan ↑,
- 79', Moreno A. ↓, Pereira A. ↑,
- 84', Giay A. 🟥,
- 85', 3 - 1, Willian (Pen),
- 88', Marcos Rocha ↓, Joao Lucas ↑,
- 90+3', 3 - 2, Benedetti ⚽,
Chances of winning
Grêmio
37.5% | Draw
30% | Palmeiras
32.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Grêmio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.6%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Grêmio's performance.Palmeiras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Palmeiras might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (-12.4%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Grêmio that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (+15.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Palmeiras could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Grêmio - Palmeiras Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.64 ↓
(3.65) |
3.25 ↓
(3.4) |
2.94 ↑
(2.04) |
2.5%
(5.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Grêmio - Palmeiras?
Users Predictions:
10 users predict this event. Grêmio will win (votes: 5 - 50%). Palmeiras will win (votes: 3 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Grêmio: 19% – 81%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Grêmio (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH +0.5 - Grêmio (1.37) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- DNB - Grêmio (1.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DC - Palmeiras (1.58) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 7 high ROI users predict this event. Grêmio (votes: 6 - 85.7%). Palmeiras (votes: 1 - 14.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).
- Palmeiras is Qualified for Copa Libertadores (Group Stage )
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 1.
- Grêmio has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- In recent matches, Palmeiras has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Palmeiras may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
- There will not play in Grêmio: Amuzu F.
(Inactive)
Arthur Melo
(Inactive)
Braithwaite M.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Fabian Balbuena
(Ankle Injury)
Gustavo Martins
(Yellow Cards)
Joao Pedro
(Muscle Injury)
Monsalve M.
(Inactive)
Noriega E.
(Yellow Cards)
Olivera C.
(Ankle Injury)
Rodrigo Ely
(Knee Injury)
Villasanti M.
(Knee Injury)
Willian
(Leg Injury)
- There will not play in Palmeiras: Lucas Evangelista
(Hamstring Injury)
Murilo
(Yellow Cards)
Paulinho
(Leg Injury)
Weverton
(Finger Injury)
- There are questionable in Grêmio: Noriega E.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 14:31. (average 0.7:1.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Grêmio won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 7:14. (average 0.8:1.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Grêmio won against Palmeiras?
Grêmio has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Palmeiras won against Grêmio?
Palmeiras has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Grêmio - Palmeiras were as follows:
26.07.2025
Palmeiras
-
Grêmio
1:0
08.11.2024
Palmeiras
-
Grêmio
1:0
04.07.2024
Grêmio
-
Palmeiras
2:2
21.09.2023
Grêmio
-
Palmeiras
1:0
10.05.2023
Palmeiras
-
Grêmio
4:1
Latest results of Palmeiras
Brazilian Serie A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12:5 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Sao Paulo | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6:2 | 4 | 10 |
| 3 | Corinthians | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5:3 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Bahia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5:4 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Athletico-PR | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Bragantino | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3:3 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Gremio | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8:8 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Chapecoense-SC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8:6 | 2 | 5 |
| 10 | Mirassol | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6:5 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Flamengo RJ | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:4 | 0 | 4 |
| 12 | Coritiba | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5:6 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Santos | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6:8 | -2 | 4 |
| 14 | Botafogo RJ | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7:6 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Vitoria | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:7 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | Remo | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6:8 | -2 | 3 |
| 17 | Atletico-MG | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6:8 | -2 | 2 |
| 18 | Internacional | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3:6 | -3 | 2 |
| 19 | Cruzeiro | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4:9 | -5 | 2 |
| 20 | Vasco | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3:6 | -3 | 1 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
