Result
1:0
26/07/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 17
- Referee: Zanovelli P. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
---|
Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 2 |
Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping |
China | K-Ball |
Ecuador | El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
Germany | Sportdigital FUSSBALL |
Portugal | Canal 11 |
Russia | MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
Switzerland | Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
Turkey | Spor Smart 2 |
Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
---|
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
0.57 | 0.39 |
Ball Possession |
---|
61% | 39% |
Total shots |
---|
10 | 5 |
Shots on target |
---|
3 | 3 |
Big Chances |
---|
0 | 3 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
2 | 3 |
Passes |
---|
88% (494/564) | 81% (293/362) |
Yellow Cards |
---|
1 | 2 |
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
0.57 | 0.39 |
xG on target (xGOT) |
---|
0.66 | 0.65 |
Total shots |
---|
10 | 5 |
Shots on target |
---|
3 | 3 |
Shots off target |
---|
5 | 1 |
Blocked Shots |
---|
2 | 1 |
Shots inside the Box |
---|
6 | 3 |
Shots outside the Box |
---|
4 | 2 |
Hit the Woodwork |
---|
0 | 0 |
Big Chances |
---|
0 | 3 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
2 | 3 |
Touches in opposition box |
---|
15 | 9 |
Accurate through passes |
---|
0 | 0 |
Offsides |
---|
0 | 1 |
Free Kicks |
---|
20 | 20 |
Passes |
---|
88% (494/564) | 81% (293/362) |
Long passes |
---|
51% (27/53) | 39% (21/54) |
Passes in final third |
---|
76% (110/144) | 51% (29/57) |
Crosses |
---|
30% (3/10) | 10% (1/10) |
Expected assists (xA) |
---|
0.57 | 0.51 |
Throw-ins |
---|
21 | 17 |
Fouls |
---|
20 | 20 |
Tackles |
---|
68% (13/19) | 61% (11/18) |
Duels won |
---|
55 | 59 |
Clearances |
---|
17 | 23 |
Interceptions |
---|
6 | 10 |
Errors leading to shot |
---|
0 | 0 |
Errors leading to goal |
---|
0 | 0 |
Goalkeeper Saves |
---|
3 | 2 |
xGOT faced |
---|
0.65 | 0.66 |
Goals prevented |
---|
0.65 | -0.34 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 3', 1 - 0, Torres F. ⚽, Mauricio (A),
- 26', Pavon C. 🟨,
- 34', Martinez E. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Alex Santana ↓, Camilo Reijers ↑,
- 58', Luighi ↓, Raphael Veiga ↑,
- 58', Mauricio ↓, Sosa R. ↑,
- 58', Vitor Roque ↓, Flaco Lopez ↑,
- 69', Pavon C. ↓, Alysson ↑,
- 70', Lucas Evangelista ↓, Moreno A. ↑,
- 70', Olivera C. ↓, Aravena A. ↑,
- 77', Freitas dos Santos R. ↓, Edenilson ↑,
- 82', Torres F. ↓, Ramon ↑,
- 83', Gustavo Martins 🟨,
- 87', Dodi ↓, Jardiel ↑,
Chances of winning
Palmeiras 70.5% | Draw 19.5% | Grêmio 10% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Palmeiras's performance.Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (-6.8%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Palmeiras that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+3.7%)
Palmeiras - Grêmio Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now (Initially) |
1.37 ↓ (1.51) |
5.05 ↑ (4) |
10.18 ↑ (6.74) |
2.9% (5.9%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Palmeiras - Grêmio?
Users Predictions:
14 users predict this event. Palmeiras will win (votes: 10 - 71.4%). Grêmio will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Palmeiras: 47.7% – 95.1%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Palmeiras will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 14).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 3.
- Palmeiras is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Grêmio's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Grêmio may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Palmeiras has had a series of home games.
- In this match, Palmeiras is the obvious favorite.
- There will not play in Palmeiras: Allan
(Red Card)
Bruno Rodrigues
(Knee Injury)
Murilo
(Thigh Injury)
- There will not play in Grêmio: Cuellar G.
(Muscle Injury)
Joao Lucas
(Muscle Injury)
Joao Pedro
(Ankle Injury)
Rodrigo Ely
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Palmeiras: Felipe Anderson
(Injury)
Figueiredo
(Inactive)
Paulinho
(Leg Injury)
- There are questionable in Grêmio: Villasanti M.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 11 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 31:16. (average 1.6:0.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Palmeiras won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:7. (average 1.6:0.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Palmeiras won against Grêmio?
Palmeiras has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Grêmio won against Palmeiras?
Grêmio has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Palmeiras - Grêmio were as follows:
08.11.2024
Palmeiras
-
Grêmio
1:0
04.07.2024
Grêmio
-
Palmeiras
2:2
21.09.2023
Grêmio
-
Palmeiras
1:0
10.05.2023
Palmeiras
-
Grêmio
4:1
Latest results of Palmeiras
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
1 | Flamengo RJ | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 30:6 | 24 | 36 |
2 | Cruzeiro | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 28:11 | 17 | 34 |
3 | Palmeiras | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 19:12 | 7 | 32 |
4 | Bahia | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 20:13 | 7 | 28 |
5 | Bragantino | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 20:20 | 0 | 27 |
6 | Botafogo RJ | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 18:8 | 10 | 26 |
7 | Mirassol | 15 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 24:14 | 10 | 25 |
8 | Sao Paulo | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 18:19 | -1 | 22 |
9 | Ceara | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 16:16 | 0 | 21 |
10 | Internacional | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 17:20 | -3 | 21 |
11 | Corinthians | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 16:20 | -4 | 21 |
12 | Fluminense | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 17:20 | -3 | 20 |
13 | Atletico-MG | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 16:16 | 0 | 20 |
14 | Gremio | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 16:22 | -6 | 20 |
15 | Vitoria | 17 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 14:18 | -4 | 17 |
16 | Vasco | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 16:20 | -4 | 15 |
17 | Santos | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 15:21 | -6 | 15 |
18 | Fortaleza | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 17:23 | -6 | 14 |
19 | Juventude | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 10:32 | -22 | 11 |
20 | Sport Recife | 15 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 9:25 | -16 | 5 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet