Result
1:0
11/05/2025 at 16:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 8
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
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Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
China | K-Ball |
Match Stats
| |
---|
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
1.29 | 0.31 |
Ball Possession |
---|
57% | 43% |
Total shots |
---|
17 | 6 |
Shots on target |
---|
4 | 2 |
Big Chances |
---|
1 | 1 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
10 | 1 |
Passes |
---|
80% (373/464) | 76% (277/364) |
Yellow Cards |
---|
1 | 1 |
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
1.29 | 0.31 |
xG on target (xGOT) |
---|
1.80 | 0.88 |
Total shots |
---|
17 | 6 |
Shots on target |
---|
4 | 2 |
Shots off target |
---|
10 | 2 |
Blocked Shots |
---|
3 | 2 |
Shots inside the Box |
---|
8 | 5 |
Shots outside the Box |
---|
9 | 1 |
Hit the Woodwork |
---|
0 | 0 |
Big Chances |
---|
1 | 1 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
10 | 1 |
Touches in opposition box |
---|
30 | 10 |
Accurate through passes |
---|
1 | 1 |
Offsides |
---|
2 | 0 |
Free Kicks |
---|
16 | 12 |
Passes |
---|
80% (373/464) | 76% (277/364) |
Long passes |
---|
48% (26/54) | 27% (16/59) |
Passes in final third |
---|
64% (76/118) | 62% (38/61) |
Crosses |
---|
28% (9/32) | 10% (1/10) |
Expected assists (xA) |
---|
1.26 | 0.36 |
Throw-ins |
---|
20 | 15 |
Fouls |
---|
12 | 16 |
Tackles |
---|
60% (12/20) | 66% (19/29) |
Duels won |
---|
63 | 69 |
Clearances |
---|
18 | 38 |
Interceptions |
---|
9 | 10 |
Errors leading to shot |
---|
1 | 0 |
Errors leading to goal |
---|
0 | 0 |
Goalkeeper Saves |
---|
2 | 3 |
xGOT faced |
---|
0.88 | 1.80 |
Goals prevented |
---|
0.88 | 0.80 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 26', Wendell ↓, Diaz E. ↑,
- 31', Ruan Tressoldi 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 55', Matheus Alves ↓, Oscar ↑,
- 55', Soares C. ↓, Lucas Ferreira ↑,
- 61', Rios R. ↓, Felipe Anderson ↑,
- 62', Allan ↓, Lucas Evangelista ↑,
- 62', Abel Ferreira 🟥,
- 66', Paulinho ↓, Mauricio ↑,
- 75', Ferreira ↓, Luciano ↑,
- 75', Marcos Antonio ↓, Pablo Maia ↑,
- 79', Moreno A. ↓, Raphael Veiga ↑,
- 79', Estevao ↓, Vitor Roque ↑,
- 85', Piquerez J. 🟨,
- 90+7', 1 - 0, Vitor Roque ⚽,
Chances of winning
Palmeiras 54.1% | Draw 28.2% | São Paulo 17.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (-0.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+1.5%)
Palmeiras - São Paulo Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now (Initially) |
1.76 ↓ (1.79) |
3.35 ↓ (3.44) |
5.33 ↑ (4.84) |
5.5% (5.6%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Palmeiras - São Paulo?
Users Predictions:
26 users predict this event. Palmeiras will win (votes: 20 - 76.9%). São Paulo will win (votes: 3 - 11.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 11.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Palmeiras: 60.7% – 93.1%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Palmeiras will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 15).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 2.
- Right now, both teams are showing solid form.
- Palmeiras may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Palmeiras has had a series of away games.
- In this match, Palmeiras is seen as the favorite.
- There will not play in Palmeiras: Bruno Rodrigues
(Knee Injury)
Felipe Anderson
(Inactive)
Micael
(Ankle Injury)
- There will not play in São Paulo: Henrique Carmo
(Inactive)
Igor Vinicius
(Injury)
Jonathan Calleri
(Knee Injury)
Luiz Gustavo
(Contusion)
Oscar
(Hamstring Injury)
- There are questionable in Palmeiras: Lucas Evangelista
(Injury)
- We predict that Palmeiras will win today's game, with odds of 1.71.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 25:15. (average 1.3:0.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Palmeiras won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 18:8. (average 1.5:0.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Palmeiras won against São Paulo?
Palmeiras has won 4 of their last 12 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has São Paulo won against Palmeiras?
São Paulo has won 3 of their last 12 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Palmeiras - São Paulo were as follows:
10.03.2025
Palmeiras
-
São Paulo
1:0
16.02.2025
Palmeiras
-
São Paulo
0:0
18.08.2024
Palmeiras
-
São Paulo
2:1
29.04.2024
São Paulo
-
Palmeiras
0:0
03.03.2024
São Paulo
-
Palmeiras
1:1
Latest results of Palmeiras
Latest results of São Paulo
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
1 | Flamengo RJ | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 30:6 | 24 | 36 |
2 | Cruzeiro | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 28:11 | 17 | 34 |
3 | Palmeiras | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 19:12 | 7 | 32 |
4 | Bahia | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 20:13 | 7 | 28 |
5 | Bragantino | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 20:20 | 0 | 27 |
6 | Botafogo RJ | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 18:8 | 10 | 26 |
7 | Mirassol | 15 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 24:14 | 10 | 25 |
8 | Sao Paulo | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 18:19 | -1 | 22 |
9 | Ceara | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 16:16 | 0 | 21 |
10 | Internacional | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 17:20 | -3 | 21 |
11 | Corinthians | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 16:20 | -4 | 21 |
12 | Fluminense | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 17:20 | -3 | 20 |
13 | Atletico-MG | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 16:16 | 0 | 20 |
14 | Gremio | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 16:22 | -6 | 20 |
15 | Vitoria | 17 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 14:18 | -4 | 17 |
16 | Vasco | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 16:20 | -4 | 15 |
17 | Santos | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 15:21 | -6 | 15 |
18 | Fortaleza | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 17:23 | -6 | 14 |
19 | Juventude | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 10:32 | -22 | 11 |
20 | Sport Recife | 15 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 9:25 | -16 | 5 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet