Palmeiras vs São Paulo – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie A Palmeiras - São Paulo
Result
1:0
11/05/2025 at 16:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie A Betano - Round 8
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
chinaChinaK-Ball

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.290.31
Ball Possession
57%43%
Total shots
176
Shots on target
42
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
101
Passes
80% (373/464)76% (277/364)
Yellow Cards
11
Expected Goals (xG)
1.290.31
xG on target (xGOT)
1.800.88
Total shots
176
Shots on target
42
Shots off target
102
Blocked Shots
32
Shots inside the Box
85
Shots outside the Box
91
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
101
Touches in opposition box
3010
Accurate through passes
11
Offsides
20
Free Kicks
1612
Passes
80% (373/464)76% (277/364)
Long passes
48% (26/54)27% (16/59)
Passes in final third
64% (76/118)62% (38/61)
Crosses
28% (9/32)10% (1/10)
Expected assists (xA)
1.260.36
Throw-ins
2015
Fouls
1216
Tackles
60% (12/20)66% (19/29)
Duels won
6369
Clearances
1838
Interceptions
910
Errors leading to shot
10
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
23
xGOT faced
0.881.80
Goals prevented
0.880.80

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 26', Wendell , Diaz E. ,
  • 31', Ruan Tressoldi 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 55', Matheus Alves , Oscar ,
  • 55', Soares C. , Lucas Ferreira ,
  • 61', Rios R. , Felipe Anderson ,
  • 62', Allan , Lucas Evangelista ,
  • 62', Abel Ferreira 🟥,
  • 66', Paulinho , Mauricio ,
  • 75', Ferreira , Luciano ,
  • 75', Marcos Antonio , Pablo Maia ,
  • 79', Moreno A. , Raphael Veiga ,
  • 79', Estevao , Vitor Roque ,
  • 85', Piquerez J. 🟨,
  • 90+7', 1 - 0, Vitor Roque ,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Palmeiras
54.1%
Draw
28.2%
São Paulo
17.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
52.9% 27.6% 19.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.9% 27.1% 19.2%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)
  • São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (-0.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+1.5%)
  • Palmeiras - São Paulo Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.76
    (1.79)
    3.35
    (3.44)
    5.33
    (4.84)
    5.5%
    (5.6%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
  • What is the prediction for Palmeiras - São Paulo?
  • Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Palmeiras will win (votes: 20 - 76.9%). São Paulo will win (votes: 3 - 11.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 11.5%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Palmeiras: 60.7%93.1%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Palmeiras will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 15).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 2.
    • Right now, both teams are showing solid form.
    • Palmeiras may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Recently, Palmeiras has had a series of away games.
    • In this match, Palmeiras is seen as the favorite.
    • There will not play in Palmeiras: Bruno Rodrigues (Knee Injury) Felipe Anderson (Inactive) Micael (Ankle Injury)
    • There will not play in São Paulo: Henrique Carmo (Inactive) Igor Vinicius (Injury) Jonathan Calleri (Knee Injury) Luiz Gustavo (Contusion) Oscar (Hamstring Injury)
    • There are questionable in Palmeiras: Lucas Evangelista (Injury)
    • We predict that Palmeiras will win today's game, with odds of 1.71.
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 25:15. (average 1.3:0.8).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Palmeiras won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 18:8. (average 1.5:0.7).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Palmeiras - São Paulo were as follows:
    10.03.2025 Palmeiras - São Paulo 1:0
    16.02.2025 Palmeiras - São Paulo 0:0
    18.08.2024 Palmeiras - São Paulo 2:1
    29.04.2024 São Paulo - Palmeiras 0:0
    03.03.2024 São Paulo - Palmeiras 1:1
    Latest results of Palmeiras
    07.05.2025 Cerro Porteño - Palmeiras 0:2
    04.05.2025 Vasco da Gama - Palmeiras 0:1
    30.04.2025 Ceará - Palmeiras 0:1
    27.04.2025 Palmeiras - Bahia 0:1
    24.04.2025 Bolívar - Palmeiras 2:3
    Latest results of São Paulo
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Flamengo RJ16113230:62436
    2Cruzeiro17104328:111734
    3Palmeiras15102319:12732
    4Bahia1584320:13728
    5Bragantino1783620:20027
    6Botafogo RJ1575318:81026
    7Mirassol1567224:141025
    8Sao Paulo1757518:19-122
    9Ceara1663716:16021
    10Internacional1656517:20-321
    11Corinthians1756616:20-421
    12Fluminense1562717:20-320
    13Atletico-MG1555516:16020
    14Gremio1655616:22-620
    15Vitoria1738614:18-417
    16Vasco1543816:20-415
    17Santos1643915:21-615
    18Fortaleza1635817:23-614
    19Juventude15321010:32-2211
    20Sport Recife1505109:25-165

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet