Result
3:1
24/01/2026 at 16:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Paulista - Round 5
- Referee: Delgado M. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | HBO Max |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.97 | 1.15 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 34% | 66% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 76% (205/270) | 88% (455/517) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.97 | 1.15 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.22 | 2.12 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 11 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 9 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 12 | 23 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 76% (205/270) | 88% (455/517) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 47% (28/60) | 58% (29/50) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 62% (50/81) | 75% (97/129) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 29% (2/7) | 37% (11/30) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.61 | 0.78 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 27 | 30 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 9 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 57% (8/14) | 73% (8/11) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 33 | 37 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 19 | 14 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 5 | 0 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.12 | 2.22 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.12 | -0.78 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 1)
- 8', 1 - 0, Mauricio ⚽, Lopez J. (A),
- 13', 1 - 1, Bobadilla D. ⚽, Robert Arboleda (A),
- 22', Khellven 🟨,
- 31', 2 - 1, Lopez J. ⚽, Sosa R. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 51', 3 - 1, Khellven ⚽, Lopez J. (A),
- 57', Bruno Fuchs 🟨,
- 76', Tapia G. ↓, Jonathan Calleri ↑,
- 76', Lucca Marques ↓, Ferreira ↑,
- 77', Lopez J. ↓, Vitor Roque ↑,
- 77', Andreas Pereira ↓, Martinez E. ↑,
- 80', Allan Elias ↓, Felipe Anderson ↑,
- 86', Diaz E. ↓, Wendell ↑,
- 87', Sosa R. ↓, Luighi ↑,
- 88', Mauricio ↓, Raphael Veiga ↑,
- 88', Jonathan Calleri 🟨,
Chances of winning
Palmeiras
53% | Draw
28.2% | São Paulo
18.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Palmeiras - São Paulo Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.76 ↓
(1.81) |
3.29 ↑
(3.2) |
4.89 ↑
(4.57) |
7.7%
(8.4%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Palmeiras - São Paulo?
Users Predictions:
5 users predict this event. Palmeiras will win (votes: 3 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%). High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 2 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -0.75 - Palmeiras (2.01) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- AH -1 - Palmeiras (2.46) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- AH -0.5 - Palmeiras (1.76) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 8 high ROI users predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 8 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 14).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 4.
- Palmeiras is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- São Paulo's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- São Paulo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Palmeiras is the team to beat.
- We predict that Palmeiras will win today's game, with odds of 1.71.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 26:15. (average 1.3:0.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Palmeiras won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:6. (average 1.5:0.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Palmeiras won against São Paulo?
Palmeiras has won 6 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has São Paulo won against Palmeiras?
São Paulo has won 3 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Palmeiras - São Paulo were as follows:
05.10.2025
São Paulo
-
Palmeiras
2:3
11.05.2025
Palmeiras
-
São Paulo
1:0
10.03.2025
Palmeiras
-
São Paulo
1:0
16.02.2025
Palmeiras
-
São Paulo
0:0
18.08.2024
Palmeiras
-
São Paulo
2:1
Latest results of Palmeiras
Latest results of São Paulo
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Novorizontino ✔ | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16:7 | 9 | 16 |
| 2 | Palmeiras ✔ | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7:6 | 1 | 15 |
| 3 | Bragantino | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 11:2 | 9 | 13 |
| 4 | Portuguesa | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9:6 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Corinthians | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9:6 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Guarani | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5:6 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | Botafogo SP | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5:8 | -3 | 11 |
| 8 | Sao Paulo | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9:11 | -2 | 10 |
| 9 | Capivariano | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6:10 | -4 | 10 |
| 10 | Santos | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 6:7 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Mirassol | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9:6 | 3 | 8 |
| 12 | Sao Bernardo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:9 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Primavera | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11:12 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Noroeste | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 8:8 | 0 | 7 |
| 15 | Velo Clube | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2:7 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Ponte Preta ✔ | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2:12 | -10 | 1 |
Promotion ~ Paulista (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Relegation ~ Paulista A2
Clinched Spots for Teams
Novorizontino is Qualified for Paulista (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Palmeiras is Qualified for Paulista (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Ponte Preta is Relegated to Paulista A2
