Result
1:0
11/05/2025 at 16:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 8
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.29 | 0.31 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 57% | 43% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (373/464) | 76% (277/364) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.29 | 0.31 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.80 | 0.88 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 10 | 2 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 1 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 30 | 10 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 16 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (373/464) | 76% (277/364) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 48% (26/54) | 27% (16/59) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 64% (76/118) | 62% (38/61) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 28% (9/32) | 10% (1/10) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.26 | 0.36 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 20 | 15 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 16 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 60% (12/20) | 66% (19/29) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 63 | 69 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 18 | 38 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.88 | 1.80 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.88 | 0.80 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 26', Wendell ↓, Diaz E. ↑,
- 31', Ruan Tressoldi 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 55', Matheus Alves ↓, Oscar ↑,
- 55', Soares C. ↓, Lucas Ferreira ↑,
- 61', Rios R. ↓, Felipe Anderson ↑,
- 62', Allan ↓, Lucas Evangelista ↑,
- 62', Abel Ferreira 🟥,
- 66', Paulinho ↓, Mauricio ↑,
- 75', Ferreira ↓, Luciano ↑,
- 75', Marcos Antonio ↓, Pablo Maia ↑,
- 79', Moreno A. ↓, Raphael Veiga ↑,
- 79', Estevao ↓, Vitor Roque ↑,
- 85', Piquerez J. 🟨,
- 90+7', 1 - 0, Vitor Roque ⚽,
Chances of winning
Palmeiras
54.1% | Draw
28.2% | São Paulo
17.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (-0.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+1.5%)
Palmeiras - São Paulo Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.76 ↓
(1.79) |
3.35 ↓
(3.44) |
5.33 ↑
(4.84) |
5.5%
(5.6%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Palmeiras - São Paulo?
Users Predictions:
26 users predict this event. Palmeiras will win (votes: 20 - 76.9%). São Paulo will win (votes: 3 - 11.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 11.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Palmeiras: 60.7% – 93.1%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Palmeiras will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 15).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 2.
- Right now, both teams are showing solid form.
- Palmeiras may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Palmeiras has had a series of away games.
- In this match, Palmeiras is seen as the favorite.
- There will not play in Palmeiras: Bruno Rodrigues
(Knee Injury)
Felipe Anderson
(Inactive)
Micael
(Ankle Injury)
- There will not play in São Paulo: Henrique Carmo
(Inactive)
Igor Vinicius
(Injury)
Jonathan Calleri
(Knee Injury)
Luiz Gustavo
(Contusion)
Oscar
(Hamstring Injury)
- There are questionable in Palmeiras: Lucas Evangelista
(Injury)
- We predict that Palmeiras will win today's game, with odds of 1.71.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 25:15. (average 1.3:0.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Palmeiras won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 18:8. (average 1.5:0.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Palmeiras won against São Paulo?
Palmeiras has won 4 of their last 12 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has São Paulo won against Palmeiras?
São Paulo has won 3 of their last 12 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Palmeiras - São Paulo were as follows:
10.03.2025
Palmeiras
-
São Paulo
1:0
16.02.2025
Palmeiras
-
São Paulo
0:0
18.08.2024
Palmeiras
-
São Paulo
2:1
29.04.2024
São Paulo
-
Palmeiras
0:0
03.03.2024
São Paulo
-
Palmeiras
1:1
Latest results of Palmeiras
Latest results of São Paulo
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Flamengo RJ | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 36:9 | 27 | 43 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 24:15 | 9 | 39 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 32:14 | 18 | 38 |
| 4 | Bahia | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 25:17 | 8 | 33 |
| 5 | Botafogo RJ | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 23:11 | 12 | 29 |
| 6 | Mirassol | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 29:19 | 10 | 29 |
| 7 | Sao Paulo | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 24:22 | 2 | 29 |
| 8 | Fluminense | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 23:24 | -1 | 27 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 22:26 | -4 | 27 |
| 10 | Ceara | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 19:19 | 0 | 25 |
| 11 | Atletico-MG | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 20:21 | -1 | 24 |
| 12 | Internacional | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 22:26 | -4 | 24 |
| 13 | Gremio | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 19:25 | -6 | 23 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 19:25 | -6 | 22 |
| 15 | Santos | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 20:29 | -9 | 21 |
| 16 | Vasco | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 25:26 | -1 | 19 |
| 17 | Vitoria | 20 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 18:24 | -6 | 19 |
| 18 | Juventude | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 17:38 | -21 | 18 |
| 19 | Fortaleza | 19 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 19:31 | -12 | 15 |
| 20 | Sport Recife | 18 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 12:27 | -15 | 10 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
