Result
2:3
05/10/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 27
- Referee: Abatti R. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 3 |
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, RedeTV!, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go |
 Ecuador | El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
 Israel | Sport 4 |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 North-macedonia | MaxTV GO |
 Portugal | Canal 11 |
 Russia | MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 1 |
 Spain | #Vamos |
 Suriname | SCCN |
 United-kingdom | Amazon Prime Video, Premier Sports Player |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.86 | 1.40 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 51% | 49% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (233/303) | 76% (218/286) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.86 | 1.40 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.95 | 2.86 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 7 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 19 | 20 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (233/303) | 76% (218/286) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 37% (17/46) | 34% (14/41) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 63% (56/89) | 63% (45/71) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 46% (6/13) | 29% (6/21) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.91 | 1.49 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 27 | 29 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 54% (14/26) | 69% (9/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 59 | 44 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 40 | 23 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.86 | 1.95 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.14 | -0.05 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 0)
- 11', Raphael Veiga 🟨,
- 15', 1 - 0, Luciano ⚽, Marcos Antonio (A),
- 22', Bobadilla D. 🟨,
- 34', 2 - 0, Tapia G. ⚽, Diaz E. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 3)
- 46', Raphael Veiga ↓, Mauricio ↑,
- 46', Murilo ↓, Bruno Fuchs ↑,
- 46', Giay A. ↓, Allan ↑,
- 54', Bobadilla D. ↓, Alisson ↑,
- 55', Pereira A. 🟨,
- 64', Pablo Maia 🟨,
- 65', Marcos Antonio ↓, Rodriguinho ↑,
- 65', Piquerez J. ↓, Jefte ↑,
- 65', Felipe Anderson ↓, Sosa R. ↑,
- 70', 2 - 1, Vitor Roque ⚽, Mauricio (A),
- 74', 2 - 2, Lopez J. ⚽, Mauricio (A),
- 80', Vitor Roque 🟨,
- 80', Diaz E. 🟨,
- 82', Tapia G. ↓, Lucas Moura ↑,
- 89', 2 - 3, Sosa R. ⚽, Moreno A. (A),
- 90+7', Moreno A. 🟨,
Chances of winning
São Paulo
40.7% | Draw
34.4% | Palmeiras
25% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in São Paulo's performance.Palmeiras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.4%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Palmeiras might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-7.9%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with São Paulo that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (+11.8%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Palmeiras could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
São Paulo - Palmeiras Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.11 ↑
(2.93) |
3.88 ↑
(3.14) |
5.61 ↑
(2.53) |
-24.2%
(5.6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 1.75
What is the prediction for São Paulo - Palmeiras?
Users Predictions:
11 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Palmeiras will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 45.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Palmeiras: 16.1% – 74.9%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:0.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 0.
- Recent form of São Paulo has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Palmeiras is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- São Paulo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Palmeiras is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- There will not play in São Paulo: Andre Silva
(Knee Injury)
Ferraresi N.
(Inactive)
Franco A.
(Injury)
Jonathan Calleri
(Knee Injury)
Luan Silva
(Inactive)
Lucas Moura
(Inactive)
Rigoni E.
(Red Card)
Ryan Francisco
(Knee Injury)
Toloi R.
(Injury)
- There will not play in Palmeiras: Lucas Evangelista
(Injury)
Paulinho
(Leg Injury)
- There are questionable in São Paulo: Tapia G.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Palmeiras: Khellven
(Foot Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 15:23. (average 0.8:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:7. (average 0.9:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has São Paulo won against Palmeiras?
São Paulo has won 3 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Palmeiras won against São Paulo?
Palmeiras has won 5 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between São Paulo - Palmeiras were as follows:
11.05.2025
Palmeiras
-
São Paulo
1:0
10.03.2025
Palmeiras
-
São Paulo
1:0
16.02.2025
Palmeiras
-
São Paulo
0:0
18.08.2024
Palmeiras
-
São Paulo
2:1
29.04.2024
São Paulo
-
Palmeiras
0:0
Latest results of São Paulo
Latest results of Palmeiras
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 28 | 19 | 4 | 5 | 53:26 | 27 | 61 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | 28 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 56:15 | 41 | 61 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 29 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 42:21 | 21 | 56 |
| 4 | Mirassol | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 52:31 | 21 | 55 |
| 5 | Bahia | 29 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 40:32 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Botafogo RJ | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 39:26 | 13 | 46 |
| 7 | Fluminense | 29 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 36:35 | 1 | 44 |
| 8 | Vasco | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 46:41 | 5 | 39 |
| 9 | Corinthians | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 32:35 | -3 | 39 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 31:33 | -2 | 38 |
| 11 | Bragantino | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 34:44 | -10 | 36 |
| 12 | Atletico-MG | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 27:32 | -5 | 36 |
| 13 | Gremio | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 30:37 | -7 | 36 |
| 14 | Ceara | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 27:28 | -1 | 35 |
| 15 | Internacional | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 35:43 | -8 | 35 |
| 16 | Santos | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 28:40 | -12 | 31 |
| 17 | Vitoria | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 27:44 | -17 | 31 |
| 18 | Juventude | 29 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 23:53 | -30 | 26 |
| 19 | Fortaleza | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 26:44 | -18 | 24 |
| 20 | Sport Recife | 29 | 2 | 11 | 16 | 22:46 | -24 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
