São Paulo vs Palmeiras – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie A São Paulo - Palmeiras
Result
2:3
05/10/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie A Betano - Round 27
  • Referee: Abatti R. (Bra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Sport 3
brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, RedeTV!, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
chinaChinaK-Ball
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
ecuadorEcuadorEl Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
israelIsraelSport 4
mexicoMexicoFanatiz
north-macedoniaNorth-macedoniaMaxTV GO
portugalPortugalCanal 11
russiaRussiaMATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 1
spainSpain#Vamos
surinameSurinameSCCN
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomAmazon Prime Video, Premier Sports Player
usaUsaFanatiz

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.861.40
Ball Possession
51%49%
Total shots
1214
Shots on target
57
Big Chances
24
Corner Kicks
47
Passes
77% (233/303)76% (218/286)
Yellow Cards
34
Expected Goals (xG)
1.861.40
xG on target (xGOT)
1.952.86
Total shots
1214
Shots on target
57
Shots off target
64
Blocked Shots
13
Shots inside the Box
87
Shots outside the Box
47
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
02
Big Chances
24
Corner Kicks
47
Touches in opposition box
1920
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
11
Free Kicks
1212
Passes
77% (233/303)76% (218/286)
Long passes
37% (17/46)34% (14/41)
Passes in final third
63% (56/89)63% (45/71)
Crosses
46% (6/13)29% (6/21)
Expected assists (xA)
0.911.49
Throw-ins
2729
Fouls
1212
Tackles
54% (14/26)69% (9/13)
Duels won
5944
Clearances
4023
Interceptions
37
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
33
xGOT faced
2.861.95
Goals prevented
-0.14-0.05

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 0)
  • 11', Raphael Veiga 🟨,
  • 15', 1 - 0, Luciano , Marcos Antonio (A),
  • 22', Bobadilla D. 🟨,
  • 34', 2 - 0, Tapia G. , Diaz E. (A),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 3)
  • 46', Raphael Veiga , Mauricio ,
  • 46', Murilo , Bruno Fuchs ,
  • 46', Giay A. , Allan ,
  • 54', Bobadilla D. , Alisson ,
  • 55', Pereira A. 🟨,
  • 64', Pablo Maia 🟨,
  • 65', Marcos Antonio , Rodriguinho ,
  • 65', Piquerez J. , Jefte ,
  • 65', Felipe Anderson , Sosa R. ,
  • 70', 2 - 1, Vitor Roque , Mauricio (A),
  • 74', 2 - 2, Lopez J. , Mauricio (A),
  • 80', Vitor Roque 🟨,
  • 80', Diaz E. 🟨,
  • 82', Tapia G. , Lucas Moura ,
  • 89', 2 - 3, Sosa R. , Moreno A. (A),
  • 90+7', Moreno A. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


São Paulo
40.7%
Draw
34.4%
Palmeiras
25%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
32.3% 30.2% 37.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.8% 30.7% 36.8%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in São Paulo's performance.
  • Palmeiras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.4%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Palmeiras might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-7.9%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with São Paulo that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (+11.8%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Palmeiras could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • São Paulo - Palmeiras Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    3.11
    (2.93)
    3.88
    (3.14)
    5.61
    (2.53)
    -24.2%
    (5.6%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 1.75
    What is the prediction for São Paulo - Palmeiras?
  • Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Palmeiras will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 45.5%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Palmeiras: 16.1%74.9%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 0.
    • Recent form of São Paulo has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Palmeiras is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
    • São Paulo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Palmeiras is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
    • There will not play in São Paulo: Andre Silva (Knee Injury) Ferraresi N. (Inactive) Franco A. (Injury) Jonathan Calleri (Knee Injury) Luan Silva (Inactive) Lucas Moura (Inactive) Rigoni E. (Red Card) Ryan Francisco (Knee Injury) Toloi R. (Injury)
    • There will not play in Palmeiras: Lucas Evangelista (Injury) Paulinho (Leg Injury)
    • There are questionable in São Paulo: Tapia G. (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Palmeiras: Khellven (Foot Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 15:23. (average 0.8:1.2).
    • Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:7. (average 0.9:0.9).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between São Paulo - Palmeiras were as follows:
    11.05.2025 Palmeiras - São Paulo 1:0
    10.03.2025 Palmeiras - São Paulo 1:0
    16.02.2025 Palmeiras - São Paulo 0:0
    18.08.2024 Palmeiras - São Paulo 2:1
    29.04.2024 São Paulo - Palmeiras 0:0
    Latest results of São Paulo
    02.10.2025 Fortaleza - São Paulo 0:2
    29.09.2025 São Paulo - Ceará 0:1
    25.09.2025 São Paulo - LDU Quito 0:1
    21.09.2025 Santos - São Paulo 1:0
    18.09.2025 LDU Quito - São Paulo 2:0
    Latest results of Palmeiras
    01.10.2025 Palmeiras - Vasco da Gama 3:0
    28.09.2025 Bahia - Palmeiras 1:0
    24.09.2025 Palmeiras - River Plate 3:1
    20.09.2025 Palmeiras - Fortaleza 4:1
    17.09.2025 River Plate - Palmeiras 1:2
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Palmeiras28194553:262761
    2Flamengo RJ28187356:154161
    3Cruzeiro29168542:212156
    4Mirassol301510552:312155
    5Bahia29147840:32849
    6Botafogo RJ29137939:261346
    7Fluminense291351136:35144
    8Vasco291161246:41539
    9Corinthians301091132:35-339
    10Sao Paulo291081131:33-238
    11Bragantino291061334:44-1036
    12Atletico-MG29991127:32-536
    13Gremio29991130:37-736
    14Ceara29981227:28-135
    15Internacional30981335:43-835
    16Santos28871328:40-1231
    17Vitoria307101327:44-1731
    18Juventude29751723:53-3026
    19Fortaleza28661626:44-1824
    20Sport Recife292111622:46-2417

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet