Result
0:1
21/03/2026 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 8
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | Sporty TV, Sporty TV App, StarTimes App |
 Austria | DAZN |
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Colombia | Win Sports |
 Ecuador | Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
 Germany | DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL |
 Israel | Sport 4 |
 Mexico | Azteca Deportes |
 Portugal | Canal 11 |
 Russia | MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
 Switzerland | DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
 United-kingdom | Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.05 | 0.14 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 63% | 37% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (475/545) | 82% (276/337) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.05 | 0.14 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 15 | 9 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 21 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (475/545) | 82% (276/337) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 55% (23/42) | 56% (33/59) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 70% (107/152) | 67% (45/67) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 7% (3/41) | 17% (1/6) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.34 | 0.11 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 18 | 16 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 21 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 76% (19/25) | 63% (10/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 68 | 61 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 15 | 36 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.36 | 0.00 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.64 | 0.00 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 6', 0 - 1, Arias J. ⚽, Lopez J. (A),
- 23', Diaz E. 🟨,
- 43', Andreas Pereira 🟨,
- 45+4', Carlos Miguel 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Diaz E. ↓, Wendell ↑,
- 46', Franco A. ↓, Robert Arboleda ↑,
- 46', Cauly ↓, Tapia G. ↑,
- 50', Marlon Freitas 🟨,
- 60', Mauricio ↓, Felipe Anderson ↑,
- 60', Andreas Pereira ↓, Lucas Evangelista ↑,
- 63', Marlon Freitas ↓, Martinez E. ↑,
- 69', Abel Ferreira 🟨,
- 77', Allan Elias ↓, Sosa R. ↑,
- 77', Lopez J. ↓, Vitor Roque ↑,
- 79', Bobadilla D. ↓, Andre Silva ↑,
- 80', Abel Ferreira 🟨,
- 81', Martinez E. 🟨,
- 84', Wendell 🟨,
- 85', Luciano ↓, Ferreira ↑,
- 90+4', Arias J. 🟨,
- 90+6', Andre Silva 🟨,
Chances of winning
São Paulo
35.3% | Draw
31.5% | Palmeiras
33.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)Palmeiras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Palmeiras might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-4.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (+8.6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Palmeiras could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
São Paulo - Palmeiras Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.71 ↓
(3.03) |
3 ↓
(3.42) |
2.85 ↑
(2.3) |
5.3%
(5.6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for São Paulo - Palmeiras?
Users Predictions:
5 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Palmeiras will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%). High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. São Paulo (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 0.
- São Paulo has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Palmeiras is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- Palmeiras may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, São Paulo has had a series of away games.
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- There will not play in São Paulo: Lucas Ramon
(Inactive)
Ryan Francisco
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Palmeiras: Figueiredo
(Injury)
Paulinho
(Leg Injury)
- There are questionable in São Paulo: Lucas Moura
(Injury)
Lucca Marques
(Inactive)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 14:29. (average 0.7:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:8. (average 0.9:1.1).
How many head-to-head matches has São Paulo won against Palmeiras?
São Paulo has won 3 of their last 16 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Palmeiras won against São Paulo?
Palmeiras has won 8 of their last 16 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between São Paulo - Palmeiras were as follows:
01.03.2026
Palmeiras
-
São Paulo
2:1
24.01.2026
Palmeiras
-
São Paulo
3:1
05.10.2025
São Paulo
-
Palmeiras
2:3
11.05.2025
Palmeiras
-
São Paulo
1:0
10.03.2025
Palmeiras
-
São Paulo
1:0
Latest results of São Paulo
Latest results of Palmeiras
Brazilian Serie A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17:8 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | Sao Paulo | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10:5 | 5 | 16 |
| 3 | Fluminense | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13:9 | 4 | 16 |
| 4 | Flamengo RJ | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13:5 | 8 | 14 |
| 5 | Bahia | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 9:7 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Athletico-PR | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10:7 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 9:8 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | Gremio | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13:12 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Vasco | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13:13 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Vitoria | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8:10 | -2 | 10 |
| 11 | Corinthians | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 7:7 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | Internacional | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7:9 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Atletico-MG | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8:11 | -3 | 8 |
| 14 | Bragantino | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6:10 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Chapecoense-SC | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9:11 | -2 | 7 |
| 16 | Santos | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10:13 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 | Botafogo RJ | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 10:12 | -2 | 6 |
| 18 | Mirassol | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8:10 | -2 | 6 |
| 19 | Remo | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10:15 | -5 | 6 |
| 20 | Cruzeiro | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 8:16 | -8 | 4 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
