Paphos vs Villarreal – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football UEFA Champions League
Result
1:0
05/11/2025 at 12:45 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • Champions League - League phase - Round 4
  • Referee: Jablonski S. (Ger)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaDStv Now, SuperSport Football, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
albaniaAlbaniaTring Sport 3
argentinaArgentinaDisney+, FOX Sports
armeniaArmeniaFast Sports
asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, Q League Asia, TOD
australiaAustraliaStan Sport
austriaAustriaDAZN 2, Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 4
belgiumBelgiumPickx+ Sports 3, Pickx+ Sports 3, Play Sports 1, Play Sports 4
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
brazilBrazilClaro TV+, HBO Max, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
bulgariaBulgariaRing, Voyo
canadaCanadaAmazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
chileChileDisney+, ESPN Premium
chinaChinaiQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
colombiaColombiaDisney+, ESPN 2
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
cyprusCyprusCytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sport 4K, Cytavision Sport 4K, Cytavision Sports 1, Cytavision Sports 1, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
czech-republicCzech-republicNova Sport 4, Oneplay
denmarkDenmarkTV3 MAX, Viaplay
finlandFinlandMTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
franceFranceCanal+ Live 3, CANAL+ Sport, Free
georgiaGeorgiaSetanta Sports 1, Silk Universal
germanyGermanyAmazon Prime Video, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
greeceGreeceCOSMOTE Sport 2
hong-kongHong-kongbeIN Sports 1, Now Player
hungaryHungaryRTL+, Sport 2
icelandIcelandSÝN Sport 2
indiaIndiaJioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 1
indonesiaIndonesiabeIN Connect, Vidio
israelIsrael5 LIVE Israel
italyItalyNOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 254, Sky Sport Arena
kenyaKenyaGotv
kosovoKosovoArena Premium 3, ART Sport 2
laosLaosbeIN Connect
macaoMacaoTDM TV
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
maldivesMaldivesMedianet
maltaMaltaGO TV, TSN Malta 6
mexicoMexicoAmazon Prime Video, HBO Max, TNT Go, TNT Sports
mongoliaMongoliaPremier Sports 1
netherlandsNetherlandsZiggo Sport 3
new-zealandNew-zealandDAZN New Zealand
nigeriaNigeriaSupersport Maximo 2, SuperSport Premier League
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaRUSH Sports 2 Caribbean
norwayNorwayTV2 Play
pakistanPakistanTapmad
papua-new-guineaPapua-new-guineaTVWan Sports
peruPeruDisney+
philippinesPhilippinesbeIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
polandPolandCanal+ Extra 3
portugalPortugalDAZN 2, DAZN / App
romaniaRomaniaDigi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2, Prima TV
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
serbiaSerbiaArena Premium 3
singaporeSingaporebeIN Sports 3
slovakiaSlovakiaVoyo
south-africaSouth-africaSuperSport Football
south-americaSouth-americaESPN 2 South, Space Latin America, ViX Latin America
south-koreaSouth-koreaSPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime 2
spainSpainM+ Liga de Campeones
surinameSurinameATV Suriname
swedenSwedenViaplay
switzerlandSwitzerlandBlue Sport 10, Blue Sport 10, Canal+ Sport, Canal+ Sport, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
taiwanTaiwanELTA Sports 2
thailandThailandbeIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
turkeyTurkeyTabii Spor 1, Tabii
ukraineUkraineMEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Sport, MEGOGO Ukraine
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomAmazon Prime Video, Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 3, Virgin Media More
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaCBS Sports Golazo, Paramount+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+, Inter
vietnamVietnamK+, ON Football, ON Plus, VTVcab

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.751.55
Ball Possession
41%59%
Total shots
518
Shots on target
25
Big Chances
12
Corner Kicks
23
Passes
77% (289/377)87% (471/542)
Yellow Cards
12
Expected Goals (xG)
0.751.55
xG on target (xGOT)
0.930.58
Total shots
518
Shots on target
25
Shots off target
39
Blocked Shots
04
Shots inside the Box
49
Shots outside the Box
19
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
12
Corner Kicks
23
Touches in opposition box
934
Accurate through passes
01
Offsides
11
Free Kicks
1312
Passes
77% (289/377)87% (471/542)
Long passes
34% (23/67)58% (25/43)
Passes in final third
51% (38/75)77% (164/214)
Crosses
30% (3/10)26% (6/23)
Expected assists (xA)
0.411.83
Throw-ins
1817
Fouls
1213
Tackles
35% (6/17)63% (10/16)
Duels won
4653
Clearances
4411
Interceptions
713
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
51
xGOT faced
0.580.93
Goals prevented
0.58-0.07

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 47', 1 - 0, Luckassen D. ⚽, Sema K. (A),
  • 56', Mikautadze G. ↓, Oluwaseyi T. ↑,
  • 56', Moleiro A. ↓, Solomon M. ↑,
  • 63', Perez A. ↓, Moreno G. ↑,
  • 63', Cardona S. ↓, Pedraza A. ↑,
  • 63', Parejo D. ↓, Comesana S. ↑,
  • 69', Luckassen D. 🟨,
  • 72', Sema K. ↓, Pileas K. ↑,
  • 76', Veiga R. 🟨,
  • 78', Orsic M. ↓, Jaja ↑,
  • 78', Pepe ↓, Anderson Silva ↑,
  • 87', Quina D. ↓, Langa B. ↑,
  • 90', Gueye P. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Paphos
10.9%		Draw
18%		Villarreal
71.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
16.1% 20.9% 63.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16% 21% 63.5%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Paphos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Paphos's form might have worsened.
  • Villarreal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Villarreal's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paphos than the current prediction. (+5.1%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Paphos, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Villarreal than the current prediction. (-7.7%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Villarreal, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
    •

    Paphos - Villarreal Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 9.01 ↑
    (5.93)    		 5.36 ↑
    (4.56)    		 1.38 ↓
    (1.51)    		 2.5%
    (5%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
    What is the prediction for Paphos - Villarreal?
  • Users Predictions: 71 users predict this event. Paphos will win (votes: 1 - 1.4%). Villarreal will win (votes: 64 - 90.1%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 8.5%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Villarreal: 83.2% – 97%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH +1.25 - Villarreal (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +1.5 - Paphos (2.03) (votes: 1 - 50%) .
    • O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Villarreal will win (21 of 25 users predict this - 84%) 🥇 Gold Tip.
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 28 high ROI users predict this event. Paphos (votes: 1 - 3.6%). Villarreal (votes: 23 - 82.1%). Tie (votes: 4 - 14.3%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:2.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • Playing home matches at a different stadium - Alphamega Stadium.
    • In recent matches, Paphos has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Villarreal is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • Villarreal may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, Villarreal is the obvious favorite.
    • There will not play in Paphos: Brito A. (Inactive) Correia J. (Red Card) Mimovic O. (Inactive) Odefalk W. (Inactive) Papadoudis A. (Inactive) Pedrao (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Villarreal: Cabanes P. (Knee Injury) Costa L. (Knee Injury) Kambwala W. (Hamstring Injury)
    • There are questionable in Paphos: Sunjic I. (Injury)
    • Recently, there has been no match between the teams.
    Latest results of Paphos
    02.11.2025 Paphos - AEL Limassol 1:0 ✺
    30.10.2025 Paphos - AEK Larnaca 1:2 ✺
    27.10.2025 Omonia - Paphos 2:1 ✺
    21.10.2025 Kairat - Paphos 0:0 ✺
    17.10.2025 Paphos - Ethnikos Achna 4:0 ✺
    Latest results of Villarreal
    01.11.2025 Villarreal - Rayo Vallecano 4:0 ✺
    29.10.2025 Ciudad de Lucena - Villarreal 0:6 ✺
    25.10.2025 Valencia - Villarreal 0:2 ✺
    21.10.2025 Villarreal - Manchester City 0:2 ✺
    18.10.2025 Villarreal - Betis 2:2 ✺
    Draw
    Play Offs

    1/16-finals
    1Monaco (21)PSG (11)2 : 2, 2 : 3
    2Galatasaray (20)Juventus (13)2 : 3, 5 : 2
    3Benfica (24)Real Madrid (9)1 : 2, 0 : 1
    4Dortmund (17)Atalanta (15)1 : 4, 2 : 0
    5Qarabag (22)Newcastle (12)2 : 3, 1 : 6
    6Club Brugge KV (19)Atl. Madrid (14)1 : 4, 3 : 3
    7Bodo/Glimt (23)Inter (10)2 : 1, 3 : 1
    8Olympiacos Piraeus (18)Bayer Leverkusen (16)0 : 0, 0 : 2
    9Barcelona (5)Bye
    10Chelsea (6)Bye
    11Liverpool (3)Bye
    12Tottenham (4)Bye
    13Sporting CP (7)Bye
    14Manchester City (8)Bye
    15Arsenal (1)Bye
    16Bayern Munich (2)Bye
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