Result
2:1
23/11/2025 at 14:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Serie B Superbet - Round 38
- Referee: Daronco A. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
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 Brazil | Disney+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.81 | 0.18 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 67% | 33% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 9 | 4 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 4 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (396/474) | 76% (193/253) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.81 | 0.18 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 5.02 | 0.32 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 9 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 13 | 2 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 4 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 33 | 4 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 17 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (396/474) | 76% (193/253) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 67% (36/54) | 41% (25/61) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 70% (123/175) | 54% (33/61) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 29% (15/51) | 33% (1/3) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.70 | 0.34 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 36 | 16 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 17 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 62% (16/26) | 67% (6/9) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 64 | 35 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 5 | 44 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 12 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.32 | 5.02 |
| Goals prevented |
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| -0.68 | 3.02 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 8', 0 - 1, Petterson Novaes ⚽, Edilson (A),
- 22', Joao Miguel 🟨,
- 43', Carlos Eduardo 🟨,
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 46', Guilherme Cachoeira ↓, Da Cruz A. ↑,
- 50', Lucca Carvalho ↓, larley ↑,
- 57', Gabriel Mesquita 🟨,
- 60', Joao Miguel ↓, Kauan Lindes ↑,
- 61', Douglas Pele ↓, Wesley Gasolina ↑,
- 70', Goncalves P. 🟨,
- 70', Chico Geraldes ↓, David Braga ↑,
- 73', Petterson Novaes ↓, Vinicius Faria ↑,
- 73', Wendel ↓, Denilson ↑,
- 77', 1 - 1, Da Cruz A. ⚽, Yuri (A),
- 84', Quintana Y. 🟨,
- 87', 2 - 1, Da Cruz A. ⚽,
- 88', Marcelinho ↓, Joao Marcos ↑,
- 88', Carlos Eduardo ↓, Kaua Hinkel ↑,
- 90', Welinton Torrao ↓, Fabricio Isidoro ↑,
- 90+3', Kauan Lindes 🟨,
- 90+4', Goncalves P. 🟥,
Chances of winning
Athletic Club
66.5% | Draw
21.5% | Paysandu
12.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Athletic Club has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)Paysandu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Club than the current prediction. (-22%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Athletic Club that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paysandu than the current prediction. (+5.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Paysandu could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Athletic Club - Paysandu Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.4 ↑
(1.38) |
4.35 ↓
(4.42) |
7.93 ↓
(8.14) |
7%
(7.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Athletic Club - Paysandu?
Users Predictions:
5 users predict this event. Athletic will win (votes: 5 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- DNB - Athletic (1.10) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletic (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).
- Paysandu is Relegated to Serie C (First stage )
- Both teams are struggling and far from their best.
- Paysandu may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Athletic is the obvious favorite.
- There will not play in Athletic: Jhonatan Silva
(Yellow Cards)
Marcelo Ajul
(Yellow Cards)
Martinez F.
(Yellow Cards)
Max
(Inactive)
Neto Costa
(Yellow Cards)
Rodrigo Gelado
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Paysandu: Andre Lima
(Yellow Cards)
Denner
(Injury)
Dudu Vieira
(Inactive)
Leandro Vilela
(Injury)
Marlon Douglas
(Yellow Cards)
Matheus Nogueira
(Injury)
Matheus Vargas
(Injury)
Ronaldo Henrique
(Inactive)
Rossi
(Inactive)
Thiago Heleno
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Athletic: David Braga
(Injury)
Luiz Filipe
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Paysandu: Diogo Oliveira
(Injury)
Gustavo Nicola
(Inactive)
- In the last 1 head-to-head match, Athletic won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.
How many head-to-head matches has Athletic Club won against Paysandu?
Athletic Club has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Paysandu won against Athletic Club?
Paysandu has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Athletic Club - Paysandu were as follows:
28.07.2025
Paysandu
-
Athletic Club
1:1
Latest results of Athletic Club
Latest results of Paysandu
Brazilian Serie B Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Vila Nova FC | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 11:8 | 3 | 12 |
| 2 | Fortaleza | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6:7 | -1 | 11 |
| 3 | Sao Bernardo | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8:5 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Criciuma | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8:6 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Juventude | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5:4 | 1 | 10 |
| 6 | Ceara | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8:5 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | Sport Recife | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6:4 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Nautico | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4:6 | -2 | 9 |
| 9 | Operario-PR | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4:3 | 1 | 9 |
| 10 | Botafogo SP | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9:6 | 3 | 8 |
| 11 | Avai | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7:6 | 1 | 8 |
| 12 | Novorizontino | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7:6 | 1 | 8 |
| 13 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8:8 | 0 | 8 |
| 14 | Atletico GO | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7:8 | -1 | 7 |
| 15 | Ponte Preta | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5:6 | -1 | 7 |
| 16 | Goias | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6:8 | -2 | 7 |
| 17 | Cuiaba | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3:3 | 0 | 7 |
| 18 | Londrina | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7:8 | -1 | 5 |
| 19 | CRB | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6:11 | -5 | 2 |
| 20 | America MG | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3:10 | -7 | 2 |
Promotion ~ Serie A Betano
Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)
Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )
