Result
2:4
28/09/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie B Superbet - Round 29
- Referee: Filho A. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
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 Brazil | Disney+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.21 | 2.38 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 57% | 43% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 18 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 8 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (406/486) | 83% (308/369) |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.21 | 2.38 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.87 | 3.10 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 18 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 8 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 10 | 7 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 10 | 9 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 9 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 16 | 18 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 15 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (406/486) | 83% (308/369) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 47% (31/66) | 54% (22/41) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 61% (76/124) | 58% (38/65) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 17% (4/23) | 29% (4/14) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.21 | 0.65 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 23 | 15 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 15 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 57% (8/14) | 58% (11/19) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 36 | 51 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 15 | 13 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 12 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 3.10 | 1.87 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.90 | -0.13 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 2)
- 14', 1 - 0, Jhonata Robert ⚽, Felipinho (A),
- 31', 1 - 1, Reverson ⚽,
- 44', 1 - 2, Mauricio Garcez ⚽, Marlon Douglas (A),
- 45+4', 2 - 2, Nicolas ⚽, Marcinho (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 2)
- 46', Lucas Dias ↓, Joao Carlos ↑,
- 46', Guilherme Lobo ↓, Fellipe Mateus ↑,
- 46', Borasi B. ↓, Diego Goncalves ↑,
- 58', Denilson ↓, Petterson Novaes ↑,
- 65', Felipinho 🟥,
- 68', 2 - 3, Marlon Douglas ⚽, Reverson (A),
- 72', Matheus Trindade ↓, Juninho ↑,
- 76', Denner ↓, Ramon Vinicius ↑,
- 76', Ronaldo Henrique ↓, Goncalves P. ↑,
- 78', Nicolas ↓, Jean Carlos ↑,
- 79', 2 - 4, Mauricio Garcez ⚽, Mauricio Antonio (A),
- 84', Mauricio Garcez ↓, Vinicius Faria ↑,
- 85', Marlon Douglas ↓, Marcelinho ↑,
Chances of winning
Criciúma
58.6% | Draw
26.6% | Paysandu
14.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Criciúma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)Paysandu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Criciúma than the current prediction. (-1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paysandu than the current prediction. (+3.3%)
Criciúma - Paysandu Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.66 ↓
(1.69) |
3.52 ↓
(3.55) |
6.28 ↑
(4.83) |
4.5%
(8.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Criciúma - Paysandu?
Users Predictions:
8 users predict this event. Criciúma will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Paysandu will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Criciúma: 45% – 100%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -1 - Criciúma (votes: 6 - 100%).
- 1X2, 1st Half - Criciúma (votes: 3 - 100%).
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Criciúma will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A Betano and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Criciúma won 3.
- Criciúma is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Paysandu has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Criciúma may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Criciúma is considered a favorite.
- There will not play in Criciúma: Caue
(Inactive)
Heitor Roca
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Paysandu: Bryan Borges
(Yellow Cards)
Matheus Vargas
(Injury)
Rossi
(Yellow Cards)
- There are questionable in Criciúma: Kaua Moroso
(Back Injury)
Leo Alaba
(Injury)
Leo Naldi
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Paysandu: Leandro Vilela
(Injury)
- We predict that Criciúma will win today's game, with odds of 1.57.
- In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Criciúma won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:9. (average 1:0.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Criciúma won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:5. (average 1.2:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Criciúma won against Paysandu?
Criciúma has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Paysandu won against Criciúma?
Paysandu has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Criciúma - Paysandu were as follows:
02.06.2025
Paysandu
-
Criciúma
0:1
Latest results of Criciúma
Latest results of Paysandu
Brazilian Serie B Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Coritiba | 32 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 34:21 | 13 | 56 |
| 2 | Criciuma | 32 | 15 | 8 | 9 | 42:29 | 13 | 53 |
| 3 | Novorizontino | 32 | 14 | 11 | 7 | 36:27 | 9 | 53 |
| 4 | Goias | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 36:29 | 7 | 52 |
| 5 | Chapecoense-SC | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 44:31 | 13 | 51 |
| 6 | Remo | 32 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 39:31 | 8 | 51 |
| 7 | Athletico-PR | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 45:42 | 3 | 49 |
| 8 | Cuiaba | 32 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 38:35 | 3 | 49 |
| 9 | CRB | 32 | 14 | 5 | 13 | 38:33 | 5 | 47 |
| 10 | Atletico GO | 32 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 35:33 | 2 | 45 |
| 11 | Avai | 32 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 40:34 | 6 | 44 |
| 12 | Vila Nova FC | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 32:33 | -1 | 43 |
| 13 | Operario-PR | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 32:36 | -4 | 39 |
| 14 | America MG | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 34:39 | -5 | 37 |
| 15 | Athletic Club | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 37:44 | -7 | 37 |
| 16 | Ferroviaria | 32 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 36:42 | -6 | 37 |
| 17 | Volta Redonda | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 22:34 | -12 | 34 |
| 18 | Botafogo SP | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 27:47 | -20 | 33 |
| 19 | Amazonas | 32 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 33:48 | -15 | 31 |
| 20 | Paysandu PA | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 28:40 | -12 | 26 |
Promotion ~ Serie A Betano
Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )
