Result
0:1
23/09/2025 at 18:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie B Superbet - Round 28
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet+, Zapping |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.53 | 1.40 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 54% | 46% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 72% (250/345) | 69% (203/294) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.53 | 1.40 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.02 | 1.56 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 12 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 11 | 17 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 4 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 15 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 72% (250/345) | 69% (203/294) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 38% (25/65) | 39% (25/64) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 47% (46/98) | 68% (77/114) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 16% (3/19) | 33% (7/21) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.32 | 0.69 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 29 | 21 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 15 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 80% (12/15) | 70% (7/10) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 49 | 61 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 20 | 42 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.56 | 0.02 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.56 | -0.98 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 10', Leandro Vilela ↓, Gustavo Nicola ↑,
- 14', Gustavo Nicola 🟨,
- 27', Dudu Vieira 🟨,
- 39', Romulo 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Nathan Fogaca ↓, Rafael Donato ↑,
- 46', Matheus Frizzo ↓, Robson ↑,
- 46', Novillo J. ↓, Rossi ↑,
- 46', Dudu Vieira ↓, Denner ↑,
- 47', Bryan Borges 🟨,
- 53', Fabio Matheus 🟨,
- 54', Patrick 🟨,
- 60', Fabio Matheus ↓, Willian Farias ↑,
- 70', Bryan Borges ↓, Marlon Douglas ↑,
- 72', Cesar Martins ↓, Ruiz O. ↑,
- 73', Rossi 🟨,
- 83', Romulo ↓, Tavinho ↑,
- 88', Gustavo Nicola ↓, Wendel ↑,
- 89', 0 - 1, Rafael Donato ⚽, Patrick (A),
- 90+1', Fabio Matheus 🟨,
Chances of winning
Paysandu
27.6% | Draw
30.6% | Grêmio Novorizontino
41.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Paysandu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Paysandu's form might have worsened.Grêmio Novorizontino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Grêmio Novorizontino's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paysandu than the current prediction. (+8.1%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Paysandu, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (-10.2%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Grêmio Novorizontino, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Paysandu - Grêmio Novorizontino Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.41 ↑
(2.76) |
3.04 ↑
(2.89) |
2.25 ↓
(2.9) |
6.6%
(5.4%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Paysandu - Grêmio Novorizontino?
Users Predictions:
8 users predict this event. Paysandu will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Novorizontino will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 15.4% – 84.6%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 1.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH 0 - Novorizontino (1.60) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- O/U 0.5, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Novorizontino (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A Betano).
- Paysandu has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Novorizontino has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Novorizontino may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
- There will not play in Paysandu: Matheus Vargas
(Injury)
Thalisson
(Red Card)
- There will not play in Novorizontino: Marlon
(Inactive)
Renato Palm
(Knee Injury)
Vitinho
(Inactive)
Waguininho
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Paysandu: Anderson Leite
(Injury)
Denner
(Injury)
- In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Paysandu won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:7. (average 1:2.3).
- Including home match between the teams, Paysandu won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.
How many head-to-head matches has Paysandu won against Grêmio Novorizontino?
Paysandu has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Grêmio Novorizontino won against Paysandu?
Grêmio Novorizontino has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Paysandu - Grêmio Novorizontino were as follows:
25.05.2025
Grêmio Novorizontino
-
Paysandu
3:1
16.11.2024
Grêmio Novorizontino
-
Paysandu
1:1
29.07.2024
Paysandu
-
Grêmio Novorizontino
1:3
Latest results of Paysandu
Latest results of Grêmio Novorizontino
Brazilian Serie B Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Vila Nova FC | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 11:8 | 3 | 12 |
| 2 | Fortaleza | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6:7 | -1 | 11 |
| 3 | Sao Bernardo | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8:5 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Criciuma | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8:6 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Juventude | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5:4 | 1 | 10 |
| 6 | Ceara | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8:5 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | Sport Recife | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6:4 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Nautico | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4:6 | -2 | 9 |
| 9 | Operario-PR | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4:3 | 1 | 9 |
| 10 | Botafogo SP | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9:6 | 3 | 8 |
| 11 | Avai | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7:6 | 1 | 8 |
| 12 | Novorizontino | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7:6 | 1 | 8 |
| 13 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8:8 | 0 | 8 |
| 14 | Atletico GO | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7:8 | -1 | 7 |
| 15 | Ponte Preta | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5:6 | -1 | 7 |
| 16 | Goias | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6:8 | -2 | 7 |
| 17 | Cuiaba | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3:3 | 0 | 7 |
| 18 | Londrina | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7:8 | -1 | 5 |
| 19 | CRB | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6:11 | -5 | 2 |
| 20 | America MG | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3:10 | -7 | 2 |
Promotion ~ Serie A Betano
Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)
Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )
