Result
1:0
28/02/2026 at 09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Serie D - Group D - Round 26
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 9', 1 - 0, Rizq K. ⚽,
- 30', Gennari M. 🟥,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
Chances of winning
Pistoiese
71% | Draw
19.8% | Progresso
9.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Pistoiese has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Pistoiese's performance.Progresso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pistoiese than the current prediction. (-6.1%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Pistoiese that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Progresso than the current prediction. (+3.7%)
Pistoiese - Progresso Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.28 ↓
(1.48) |
4.6 ↑
(3.58) |
9.99 ↑
(6.68) |
9.6%
(10.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
Preview Facts
- One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group D (Play Offs: ) and 11).
- Pistoiese is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Progresso is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Pistoiese may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Pistoiese is the undeniable favorite.
- We predict that Pistoiese will win today's game, with odds of 1.48.
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pistoiese won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:4. (average 2:0.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Pistoiese won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 2.5:0.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Pistoiese won against Progresso?
Pistoiese has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Progresso won against Pistoiese?
Progresso has won 0 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Pistoiese - Progresso were as follows:
26.10.2025
Progresso
-
Pistoiese
2:2
19.01.2025
Pistoiese
-
Progresso
3:0
22.09.2024
Progresso
-
Pistoiese
0:2
03.03.2024
Progresso
-
Pistoiese
1:1
28.10.2023
Pistoiese
-
Progresso
2:1
Latest results of Pistoiese
Latest results of Progresso
Italian Serie D - Group D Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Lentigione | 26 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 38:14 | 24 | 58 |
| 2 | Desenzano | 26 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 47:18 | 29 | 57 |
| 3 | Pistoiese | 26 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 42:16 | 26 | 56 |
| 4 | Piacenza | 26 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 44:27 | 17 | 48 |
| 5 | Pro Sesto | 26 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 37:19 | 18 | 47 |
| 6 | Cittadella Vis Modena | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 31:21 | 10 | 44 |
| 7 | Rovato Vertovese | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 29:24 | 5 | 42 |
| 8 | Pro Palazzolo | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 31:25 | 6 | 40 |
| 9 | Sangiuliano City | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 32:32 | 0 | 37 |
| 10 | Crema | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 31:34 | -3 | 35 |
| 11 | Sant'Angelo | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 27:39 | -12 | 30 |
| 12 | SCD Progresso | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 27:32 | -5 | 28 |
| 13 | Correggese | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 22:29 | -7 | 26 |
| 14 | Sasso Marconi | 26 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 24:35 | -11 | 23 |
| 15 | Imolese | 26 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 18:39 | -21 | 21 |
| 16 | Trevigliese | 26 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 24:44 | -20 | 20 |
| 17 | Tropical Coriano | 26 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 20:38 | -18 | 19 |
| 18 | Tuttocuoio | 26 | 0 | 7 | 19 | 14:52 | -38 | 7 |
Promotion
Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group D (Play Offs: )
Serie D ~ Group D (Play Out: )
Relegation
