Result
1:2
15/02/2026 at 18:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Paulista - Round 8
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | HBO Max |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.66 | 1.86 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 38% | 62% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (200/273) | 84% (390/463) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.66 | 1.86 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.69 | 0.88 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 15 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 6 | 32 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 16 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (200/273) | 84% (390/463) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 48% (28/58) | 36% (20/55) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 57% (42/74) | 67% (85/126) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 20% (4/20) | 26% (5/19) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.23 | 1.54 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 25 | 18 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 16 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 50% (7/14) | 60% (6/10) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 46 | 44 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 23 | 23 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.88 | 0.69 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.12 | -0.31 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 39', 0 - 1, Lucas Ramon ⚽,
- 45', Luciano 🟨,
- 45+2', Lucas Cunha 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 48', 0 - 2, Jonathan Calleri ⚽, Sabino (A),
- 52', 1 - 2, Bryan Borges ⚽, Diego Tavares (A),
- 58', Diaz E. 🟨,
- 60', Luis Phelipe ↓, Joao Damiao ↑,
- 73', Diaz E. ↓, Wendell ↑,
- 73', Luciano ↓, Pedro Ferreira ↑,
- 74', Diego M. L. 🟨,
- 76', Diego M. L. ↓, Julio ↑,
- 76', Rodrigo Souza ↓, Machado R. ↑,
- 83', Lucas Moura ↓, Lucca Marques ↑,
- 85', Kevyson ↓, Jean Carlos ↑,
- 85', David Braz ↓, Miguel Morais ↑,
- 90+1', Marcos Antonio ↓, Luan Silva ↑,
- 90+1', Jonathan Calleri ↓, Tapia G. ↑,
Chances of winning
Ponte Preta
9.8% | Draw
19.1% | São Paulo
71.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ponte Preta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponte Preta than the current prediction. (+0.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+1.6%)
Ponte Preta - São Paulo Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
9.56 ↑
(8.67) |
4.89 ↑
(4.6) |
1.31 ↓
(1.33) |
7.5%
(8.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Ponte Preta - São Paulo?
Users Predictions:
4 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 4 - 100%). High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. São Paulo (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH +1.5 - Ponte Preta (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Ponte Preta (votes: 1 - 50%). São Paulo (votes: 1 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Paulista A2 and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- Ponte Preta is Relegated to Paulista A2
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ponte Preta won 3.
- Ponte Preta has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- São Paulo is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Ponte Preta may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, São Paulo has had a series of home games.
- In this match, São Paulo is the clear favorite.
- There will not play in Ponte Preta: Danilo Barcelos
(Inactive)
Jonathan Cafu
(Inactive)
Lucas Justen
(Inactive)
Tarik
(Red Card)
- There will not play in São Paulo: Andre Silva
(Knee Injury)
Ryan Francisco
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Ponte Preta: Cristiano
(Inactive)
Diego M. L.
(Inactive)
Joao Gabriel
(Injury)
Saimon
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in São Paulo: Bobadilla D.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ponte Preta won 9 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 22:25. (average 1.1:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Ponte Preta won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:8. (average 1.1:0.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Ponte Preta won against São Paulo?
Ponte Preta has won 2 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has São Paulo won against Ponte Preta?
São Paulo has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Ponte Preta - São Paulo were as follows:
19.02.2025
São Paulo
-
Ponte Preta
1:2
10.02.2024
Ponte Preta
-
São Paulo
2:0
Latest results of Ponte Preta
Latest results of São Paulo
Draw
Play OffsQuarter-finals| 1 | Novorizontino (1) | Santos (8) | 2 : 1 |
| 2 | Portuguesa (4) | Corinthians (5) | 1 : 2 |
| 3 | Palmeiras (2) | Capivariano (7) | 4 : 0 |
| 4 | Bragantino (3) | Sao Paulo (6) | 1 : 2 |
Semi-finals| 1 | Novorizontino (1) | Corinthians (5) | 1 : 0 |
| 2 | Palmeiras (2) | Sao Paulo (6) | 2 : 1 |
Final| 1 | Novorizontino (1) | Palmeiras (2) | |
