Result
05/10/2025 at 16:15 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
Chances of winning
Porto
48.5% | Draw
27.1% | Benfica
24.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Porto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Porto's performance.Benfica has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Benfica might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Porto than the current prediction. (-5.7%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Porto that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (+4.8%)
Porto - Benfica Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.94 ↓
(2.29) |
3.49 ↑
(3.34) |
3.86 ↑
(3.17) |
6%
(5.2%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Porto - Benfica?
Users Predictions:
Porto will win
(15 of 16 users predict this - 93.75%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.89% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Porto will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Porto won 1.
- Porto has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).
- Benfica has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Benfica may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Porto might have a minor edge in this game.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Porto won 11 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 32:23. (average 1.6:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Porto won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 19:11. (average 2.1:1.2).
How many head-to-head matches has Porto won against Benfica?
Porto has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Benfica won against Porto?
Benfica has won 5 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Porto - Benfica were as follows:
06.04.2025
Porto
-
Benfica
1:4
10.11.2024
Benfica
-
Porto
4:1
03.03.2024
Porto
-
Benfica
5:0
29.09.2023
Benfica
-
Porto
1:0
09.08.2023
Benfica
-
Porto
2:0
Latest results of Benfica
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 19:1 | 18 | 21 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 19:4 | 15 | 18 |
| 3 | Benfica | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13:4 | 9 | 17 |
| 4 | Gil Vicente | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10:4 | 6 | 16 |
| 5 | Moreirense | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 12:11 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7:3 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9:12 | -3 | 11 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11:12 | -1 | 10 |
| 9 | Nacional | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9:12 | -3 | 10 |
| 10 | Braga | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11:7 | 4 | 9 |
| 11 | Santa Clara | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6:10 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | Casa Pia | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8:13 | -5 | 8 |
| 13 | Arouca | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9:18 | -9 | 8 |
| 14 | Estrela | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6:8 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Estoril | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10:13 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 8:13 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Tondela | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4:11 | -7 | 5 |
| 18 | AFS | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5:20 | -15 | 1 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
