Querétaro vs Puebla – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Mexican Liga MX Querétaro - Puebla
Result
3:1
04/10/2025 at 19:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Liga MX - Apertura - Round 12
  • Referee: Arce V. (Mex)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
mexicoMexicoAmazon Prime Video, Caliente TV, Fox Sports, Tubi TV
south-americaSouth-americaViX Latin America

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.670.85
Ball Possession
51%49%
Total shots
1212
Shots on target
44
Big Chances
31
Corner Kicks
36
Passes
80% (312/389)80% (300/376)
Yellow Cards
11
Expected Goals (xG)
1.670.85
xG on target (xGOT)
2.381.27
Total shots
1212
Shots on target
44
Shots off target
57
Blocked Shots
31
Shots inside the Box
812
Shots outside the Box
40
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
31
Corner Kicks
36
Touches in opposition box
1529
Accurate through passes
01
Offsides
00
Free Kicks
1915
Passes
80% (312/389)80% (300/376)
Long passes
44% (27/61)56% (40/71)
Passes in final third
63% (55/87)66% (85/129)
Crosses
23% (3/13)47% (9/19)
Expected assists (xA)
0.681.00
Throw-ins
1320
Fouls
1519
Tackles
68% (13/19)65% (13/20)
Duels won
4757
Clearances
1714
Interceptions
167
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
31
xGOT faced
1.272.38
Goals prevented
0.27-0.62

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 32', Venegas F. 🟨,
  • 33', 0 - 1, Marin R. , Diaz N. (A),
  • 43', Diaz N. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (3 - 0)
  • 46', Carcelen Carabali M. A. , Perez A. ,
  • 46', Venegas F. , Perlaza J. ,
  • 54', Perez A. , Barrera P. ,
  • 56', 1 - 1, Avila A. ,
  • 60', 2 - 1, Avila A. , Perlaza J. (A),
  • 63', Navarro E. , Baltazar C. ,
  • 76', Marin R. , Lozano E. ,
  • 76', Rivas J. , Moreno I. ,
  • 77', 3 - 1, Rodriguez L. ,
  • 78', Avila A. , Armenta E. ,
  • 89', Jhojan Julio , Robles J. ,
  • 90+1', Zapata A. , Garcia C. ,
  • 90+1', Gomez E. , Robles A. ,
  • 90+1', Organista A. , Orona E. ,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Querétaro
32.3%
Draw
29.1%
Puebla
38.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
36.6% 26.9% 36.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38% 25.9% 35.2%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Querétaro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)
  • Puebla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Querétaro than the current prediction. (+5.7%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Querétaro, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Puebla than the current prediction. (-3.4%)
  • Querétaro - Puebla Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.89
    (2.52)
    3.24
    (3.42)
    2.46
    (2.52)
    6.3%
    (8.7%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
    Preview Facts
    • We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 17 and 18).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Querétaro won 2.
    • Querétaro is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Puebla has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
    • Querétaro may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
    • There will not play in Querétaro: Coronel M. (Red Card) Gruezo E. (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Puebla: Cavallini L. (Knee Injury) Pachuca Martinez J. R. (International duty)
    • There are questionable in Querétaro: Garcia C. (Knee Injury) Lertora F. (Calf Injury)
    • There are questionable in Puebla: Monarrez F. (Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Querétaro won 5 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 21:23. (average 1.1:1.2).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Querétaro won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:11. (average 1.1:1.1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Querétaro - Puebla were as follows:
    02.03.2025 Querétaro - Puebla 2:0
    13.09.2024 Puebla - Querétaro 2:1
    23.02.2024 Puebla - Querétaro 0:2
    17.09.2023 Querétaro - Puebla 1:1
    13.01.2023 Puebla - Querétaro 2:0
    Latest results of Querétaro
    28.09.2025 Querétaro - Tigres UANL 0:2
    24.09.2025 Cruz Azul - Querétaro 2:2
    20.09.2025 Pachuca - Querétaro 0:2
    14.09.2025 Querétaro - Monterrey 0:1
    30.08.2025 Club León - Querétaro 3:0
    Latest results of Puebla
    23.09.2025 Puebla - Pachuca 2:2
    19.09.2025 Necaxa - Puebla 1:0
    13.09.2025 Toluca - Puebla 3:1
    29.08.2025 Puebla - Monterrey 2:4
    Mexican Liga MX Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Toluca ✔ 15103241:182333
    2Tigres UANL ✔ 1595131:141732
    3Cruz Azul ✔ 1595127:171032
    4Club America ✔ 1594231:161531
    5Monterrey ✔ 1593330:24630
    6Guadalajara Chivas1572624:20423
    7Pachuca1564521:19222
    8Club Tijuana1556426:19721
    9Juarez1555524:25-120
    10Santos Laguna1552820:24-417
    11Atl. San Luis1551923:24-116
    12Atlas1544724:33-916
    13UNAM Pumas1536617:22-515
    14Queretaro1542916:28-1214
    15Mazatlan FC1527619:27-813
    16Necaxa1534819:30-1113
    17Club Leon1534813:27-1413
    18Puebla15231019:38-199

          Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
          Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )

    Clinched Spots for Teams
    Toluca is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
    Tigres UANL is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
    Cruz Azul is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
    Club America is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
    Monterrey is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)