Alex De Minaur vs Rafael Nadal – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

27/04/2024 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

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ATP - SINGLES: Madrid (Spain), clay - 1/32-finals
Referee: Murphy F. (Irl)
Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	SportKlub
Brazil	ESPN 2
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Croatia	SportKlub
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 3
Denmark	TV2 Sport X
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Urheilu
France	Eurosport 1
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis
Poland	Polsat Sport News
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub
Ukraine	Setanta Sports

Match Stats


Aces
2	0
Double Faults
3	2
1st Serve Percentage
67%	73%
1st Serve Points Won
63% (29/46)	71% (32/45)
2nd Serve Points Won
52% (12/23)	53% (9/17)
Break Points Saved
20% (1/5)	50% (2/4)
1st Return Points Won
29% (13/45)	37% (17/46)
2nd Return Points Won
47% (8/17)	48% (11/23)
Break Points Converted
50% (2/4)	80% (4/5)
Max Points In Row
6	6
Service Points Won
61% (41/67)	66% (41/62)
Return Points Won
34% (21/62)	39% (26/67)
Total Points Won
48% (62/129)	52% (67/129)
Max Games In Row
2	3
Service Games Won
64% (7/11)	80% (8/10)
Return Games Won
20% (2/10)	36% (4/11)
Total Games Won
43% (9/21)	57% (12/21)

Chances of winning

Alex De Minaur
58.5%

Rafael Nadal
41.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.1%

47.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alex De Minaur has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alex De Minaur's performance.

Rafael Nadal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Rafael Nadal might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alex De Minaur than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alex De Minaur that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rafael Nadal than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Rafael Nadal could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Alex De Minaur - Rafael Nadal Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↓ (1.83)		2.34 ↑ (1.83)	3.8% (9.3%)

What is the prediction for Alex De Minaur - Rafael Nadal?

Users Predictions: 56 users predict this event. De Minaur will win (votes: 27 - 48.2%). Nadal will win (votes: 29 - 51.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nadal: 38.7% – 64.9%.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.

Preview Facts

Last 5 head-to-head matches De Minaur won 2.
One and the other player get a very uncertain game.
Nadal could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
De Minaur will have a small advantage in this match.
Last 6 head-to-head matches De Minaur won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 5-8.

How many head-to-head matches has Alex De Minaur won against Rafael Nadal?

Alex De Minaur has won 2 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Rafael Nadal won against Alex De Minaur?

Rafael Nadal has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Alex De Minaur - Rafael Nadal were as follows:

17.04.2024 Alex De Minaur - Rafael Nadal 2:0

02.01.2023 Rafael Nadal - Alex De Minaur 1:2

Latest results of Alex De Minaur

18.04.2024 Alex De Minaur - Arthur Fils 0:2 ✺

17.04.2024 Alex De Minaur - Rafael Nadal 2:0 ✺

12.04.2024 Novak Djokovic - Alex De Minaur 2:0 ✺

11.04.2024 Alex De Minaur - Alexei Popyrin 2:0 ✺

10.04.2024 Alex De Minaur - Tallon Griekspoor 2:1 ✺

Latest results of Rafael Nadal

25.04.2024 Darwin Blanch - Rafael Nadal 0:2 ✺

17.04.2024 Alex De Minaur - Rafael Nadal 2:0 ✺

16.04.2024 Flavio Cobolli - Rafael Nadal 0:2 ✺

07.03.2024 Milos Raonic - Rafael Nadal Canceled ✺

03.03.2024 Rafael Nadal - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 1:2 ✺

Draw

Singles - Main

1/64-finals

1	Zverev A. (1)	Bye
2	Bautista-Agut R.	Munar J.	2 : 1
3	Borges N.	Carreno-Busta P. (WC)	2 : 1
4	Bye	Davidovich Fokina A. (28)
5	Cerundolo F. (20)	Bye
6	Moutet C. (RET.)	Mayot H. (Q)	0 : 1
7	Comesana F.	Martinez P.	2 : 0
8	Bye	Fils A. (13)
9	Shelton B. (12)	Bye
10	Mpetshi Perricard G.	Navone M.	0 : 2
11	Lajovic D. (Q)	Quinn E. (Q)	0 : 2
12	Bye	Mensik J. (22)
13	Popyrin A. (25)	Bye
14	Michelsen A.	Bublik A.	0 : 2
15	Monfils G.	Gojo B. (Q)	2 : 1
16	Bye	Rublev A. (7)
17	Fritz T. (3)	Bye
18	O'Connell C.	Ugo Carabelli C.	2 : 0
19	Bonzi B.	Cilic M. (WC)	2 : 0
20	Bye	Hurkacz H. (27)
21	Korda S. (23)	Bye
22	Cina F. (WC)	Wong C. (WC)	2 : 0
23	Safiullin R.	Rinderknech A.	0 : 2
24	Bye	Ruud C. (14)
25	Medvedev D. (9)	Bye
26	Fognini F. (Q)	Djere L.	0 : 2
27	Cerundolo J. M. (Q)	Kovacevic A.	2 : 1
28	Bye	Auger-Aliassime F. (18)
29	Nakashima B. (31)	Bye
30	Ofner S. (PR)	Gaston H. (Q)	2 : 0
31	Marozsan F.	Cobolli F.	0 : 2
32	Bye	Rune H. (8)
33	Draper J. (5)	Bye
34	Griekspoor T.	Kopriva V. (Q)	2 : 0
35	Tien L.	Giron M.	1 : 2
36	Bye	Berrettini M. (30)
37	Khachanov K. (24)	Bye
38	Opelka R. (PR)	Hijikata R. (LL)	2 : 0
39	Fonseca J.	Moller E. (Q)	2 : 0
40	Bye	Paul T. (11)
41	Tiafoe F. (16)	Bye
42	Halys Q.	Darderi L.	0 : 2
43	Goffin D. (RET.)	Muller A.	1 : 1
44	Bye	Humbert U. (21)
45	Baez S. (32)	Bye
46	Dzumhur D.	Bellucci M.	2 : 1
47	Arnaldi M.	Coric B. (Q)	2 : 1
48	Bye	Djokovic N. (4)
49	De Minaur A. (6)	Bye
50	Sonego L.	Kecmanovic M.	2 : 0
51	Vukic A.	Nishikori K.	1 : 2
52	Bye	Shapovalov D. (29)
53	Tsitsipas S. (17)	Bye
54	Van De Zandschulp B. (RET.) (LL)	Struff J-L.	1 : 1
55	Etcheverry T. M.	Medjedovic H.	2 : 1
56	Bye	Musetti L. (10)
57	Dimitrov G. (15)	Bye
58	Altmaier D. (Q)	Jarry N.	0 : 2
59	Bu Y.	Fearnley J. (Q)	0 : 2
60	Bye	Machac T. (19)
61	Lehecka J. (26)	Bye
62	Landaluce M. (WC)	Norrie C.	1 : 2
63	Bergs Z.	Diallo G. (LL)	0 : 2
64	Bye	Majchrzak K. (LL)

1/32-finals

1	Zverev A. (1)	Bautista-Agut R.	2 : 0
2	Borges N.	Davidovich Fokina A. (28)	0 : 2
3	Cerundolo F. (20)	Mayot H.	2 : 0
4	Comesana F.	Fils A. (13)	2 : 0
5	Shelton B. (12)	Navone M.	2 : 1
6	Quinn E.	Mensik J. (22)	0 : 2
7	Popyrin A. (25)	Bublik A.	0 : 2
8	Monfils G.	Rublev A. (WO.) (7)
9	Fritz T. (3)	O'Connell C.	2 : 0
10	Bonzi B.	Hurkacz H. (27)	2 : 0
11	Korda S. (23)	Cina F.	2 : 1
12	Rinderknech A.	Ruud C. (14)	0 : 2
13	Medvedev D. (WO.) (9)	Djere L.
14	Cerundolo J. M.	Auger-Aliassime F. (18)	2 : 0
15	Nakashima B. (31)	Ofner S.	2 : 0
16	Cobolli F.	Rune H. (RET.) (8)	1 : 0
17	Draper J. (5)	Griekspoor T.	2 : 0
18	Giron M.	Berrettini M. (30)	1 : 2
19	Khachanov K. (24)	Opelka R.	2 : 0
20	Fonseca J.	Paul T. (11)	0 : 2
21	Tiafoe F. (16)	Darderi L. (RET.)	1 : 0
22	Muller A.	Humbert U. (21)	2 : 1
23	Baez S. (32)	Dzumhur D.	1 : 2
24	Arnaldi M.	Djokovic N. (4)	2 : 0
25	De Minaur A. (6)	Sonego L.	2 : 0
26	Nishikori K.	Shapovalov D. (29)	0 : 2
27	Tsitsipas S. (17)	Struff J-L.	2 : 1
28	Etcheverry T. M.	Musetti L. (10)	0 : 2
29	Dimitrov G. (15)	Jarry N.	2 : 0
30	Fearnley J.	Machac T. (19)	2 : 1
31	Lehecka J. (26)	Norrie C.	1 : 2
32	Diallo G. (LL)	Majchrzak K. (LL)	2 : 1

1/16-finals

1	Zverev A. (1)	Davidovich Fokina A. (28)	2 : 1
2	Cerundolo F. (20)	Comesana F.	2 : 0
3	Shelton B. (12)	Mensik J. (22)	0 : 2
4	Bublik A.	Rublev A. (7)	2 : 1
5	Fritz T. (3)	Bonzi B. (RET.)	1 : 1
6	Korda S. (23)	Ruud C. (14)	0 : 2
7	Medvedev D. (9)	Cerundolo J. M.	2 : 0
8	Nakashima B. (31)	Cobolli F.	2 : 0
9	Draper J. (5)	Berrettini M. (RET.) (30)	1 : 0
10	Khachanov K. (24)	Paul T. (11)	1 : 2
11	Tiafoe F. (16)	Muller A.	2 : 0
12	Dzumhur D.	Arnaldi M.	0 : 2
13	De Minaur A. (6)	Shapovalov D. (29)	2 : 0
14	Tsitsipas S. (17)	Musetti L. (10)	0 : 2
15	Dimitrov G. (15)	Fearnley J.	2 : 0
16	Norrie C.	Diallo G.	1 : 2

1/8-finals

1	Zverev A. (1)	Cerundolo F. (20)	0 : 2
2	Mensik J. (22)	Bublik A.	2 : 0
3	Fritz T. (3)	Ruud C. (14)	0 : 2
4	Medvedev D. (9)	Nakashima B. (31)	2 : 1
5	Draper J. (5)	Paul T. (11)	2 : 0
6	Tiafoe F. (16)	Arnaldi M.	0 : 2
7	De Minaur A. (6)	Musetti L. (10)	0 : 2
8	Dimitrov G. (15)	Diallo G.	1 : 2

Quarter-finals

1	Cerundolo F. (20)	Mensik J. (22)	2 : 1
2	Ruud C. (14)	Medvedev D. (9)	2 : 0
3	Draper J. (5)	Arnaldi M.	2 : 0
4	Musetti L. (10)	Diallo G.	2 : 0

Semi-finals

1	Cerundolo F. (20)	Ruud C. (14)	0 : 2
2	Draper J. (5)	Musetti L. (10)	2 : 0

Final

1

Ruud C. (14)

Draper J. (5)

2 : 1