Alex De Minaur vs Rafael Nadal – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Result
0:2
27/04/2024 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • ATP - SINGLES: Madrid (Spain), clay - 1/32-finals
  • Referee: Murphy F. (Irl)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
australiaAustraliabeIN Sports
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaSportKlub
brazilBrazilESPN 2
bulgariaBulgariaMax Sport 1
croatiaCroatiaSportKlub
czech-republicCzech-republicPremier Sport 3
denmarkDenmarkTV2 Sport X
finlandFinlandMTV Katsomo, MTV Urheilu
franceFranceEurosport 1
germanyGermanySky Sport Tennis
polandPolandPolsat Sport News
serbiaSerbiaSportKlub
sloveniaSloveniaSportKlub
ukraineUkraineSetanta Sports

Match Stats

Aces
20
Double Faults
32
1st Serve Percentage
67%73%
1st Serve Points Won
63% (29/46)71% (32/45)
2nd Serve Points Won
52% (12/23)53% (9/17)
Break Points Saved
20% (1/5)50% (2/4)
1st Return Points Won
29% (13/45)37% (17/46)
2nd Return Points Won
47% (8/17)48% (11/23)
Break Points Converted
50% (2/4)80% (4/5)
Max Points In Row
66
Service Points Won
61% (41/67)66% (41/62)
Return Points Won
34% (21/62)39% (26/67)
Total Points Won
48% (62/129)52% (67/129)
Max Games In Row
23
Service Games Won
64% (7/11)80% (8/10)
Return Games Won
20% (2/10)36% (4/11)
Total Games Won
43% (9/21)57% (12/21)

Chances of winning


Alex De Minaur
58.5%
Rafael Nadal
41.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
50% 50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.1% 47.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Alex De Minaur has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alex De Minaur's performance.
  • Rafael Nadal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Rafael Nadal might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alex De Minaur than the current prediction. (-6.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alex De Minaur that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rafael Nadal than the current prediction. (+6.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Rafael Nadal could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Alex De Minaur - Rafael Nadal Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.64
    (1.83)

    2.34
    (1.83)
    3.8%
    (9.3%)
    What is the prediction for Alex De Minaur - Rafael Nadal?
  • Users Predictions: 56 users predict this event. De Minaur will win (votes: 27 - 48.2%). Nadal will win (votes: 29 - 51.8%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Nadal: 38.7%64.9%.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • Last 5 head-to-head matches De Minaur won 2.
    • One and the other player get a very uncertain game.
    • Nadal could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
    • De Minaur will have a small advantage in this match.
    • Last 6 head-to-head matches De Minaur won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 5-8.
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Alex De Minaur - Rafael Nadal were as follows:
    17.04.2024 Alex De Minaur - Rafael Nadal 2:0
    02.01.2023 Rafael Nadal - Alex De Minaur 1:2
    Latest results of Alex De Minaur
    Latest results of Rafael Nadal
    Draw
    Singles - Main

    1/64-finals
    1Sinner J. (1)Bye
    2Bonzi B. (Q)Droguet T. (Q)2 : 1
    3Moller E. (Q)Cina F. (WC)2 : 0
    4ByeDiallo G. (32)
    5Norrie C. (19)Bye
    6Machac T.Comesana F.2 : 1
    7Bautista-Agut R.Tirante T. A.0 : 2
    8ByePaul T. (15)
    9Rublev A. (9)Bye
    10Zhang Z. (PR)Kopriva V.0 : 2
    11Sonego L.Lajovic D. (Q)0 : 2
    12ByeRinderknech A. (22)
    13Fonseca J. (27)Bye
    14Bergs Z.Cilic M.1 : 2
    15Jodar R. (WC)De Jong J.2 : 1
    16ByeDe Minaur A. (5)
    17Shelton B. (4)Bye
    18Prizmic D. (Q)Berrettini M.2 : 0
    19Basilashvili N. (Q)Ofner S.0 : 2
    20ByeEtcheverry T. M. (25)
    21Fils A. (21)Bye
    22Buse I.Mannarino A.2 : 0
    23Brooksby J.Nava E.0 : 2
    24ByeVacherot V. (14)
    25Lehecka J. (11)Bye
    26Tabilo A.Royer V.2 : 0
    27Muller A.Struff J-L.0 : 2
    28ByeMichelsen A. (33)
    29Griekspoor T. (29)Bye
    30Dzumhur D.Bellucci M.2 : 0
    31Faria J. (Q)Hurkacz H.0 : 2
    32ByeMusetti L. (6)
    33Bublik A. (8)Bye
    34Kypson P. (LL)Tsitsipas S.1 : 2
    35Trungelliti M. (LL)Merida Aguilar D. (Q)1 : 2
    36ByeMoutet C. (26)
    37Davidovich Fokina A. (20)Bye
    38Carreno-Busta P. (WC)Fucsovics M.2 : 1
    39Munar J.Shevchenko A.2 : 0
    40ByeRuud C. (12)
    41Cerundolo F. (16)Bye
    42Hanfmann Y.Giron M.2 : 1
    43Altmaier D.Cerundolo J. M.0 : 2
    44ByeDarderi L. (18)
    45Nakashima B. (28)Bye
    46Garin C. (LL)Blockx A.1 : 2
    47Gaubas V. (Q)Baez S.2 : 0
    48ByeAuger-Aliassime F. (3)
    49Medvedev D. (7)Bye
    50Marozsan F.Quinn E.2 : 0
    51Budkov Kjaer N. (Q)Opelka R. (RET.)0 : 0
    52ByeShapovalov D. (31)
    53Tien L. (17)Bye
    54Vallejo D. (Q)Dimitrov G.2 : 0
    55Ugo Carabelli C.Monfils G. (WC)2 : 0
    56ByeCobolli F. (10)
    57Khachanov K. (13)Bye
    58Landaluce M. (WC)Walton A.0 : 2
    59Popyrin A.Damm M. (Q)0 : 2
    60ByeMensik J. (23)
    61Humbert U. (30)Bye
    62Atmane T.Kecmanovic M.2 : 0
    63Borges N.Navone M.0 : 2
    64ByeZverev A. (2)

    1/32-finals
    1Sinner J. (1)Bonzi B. (Q)2 : 1
    2Moller E. (Q)Diallo G. (RET.) (32)1 : 0
    3Norrie C. (19)Machac T.2 : 1
    4Tirante T. A.Paul T. (15)2 : 0
    5Rublev A. (9)Kopriva V.0 : 2
    6Lajovic D.Rinderknech A. (22)0 : 2
    7Fonseca J. (WO.) (27)Cilic M.
    8Jodar R.De Minaur A. (5)2 : 0
    9Shelton B. (4)Prizmic D.1 : 2
    10Ofner S.Etcheverry T. M. (25)0 : 2
    11Fils A. (21)Buse I.2 : 1
    12Nava E.Vacherot V. (14)2 : 1
    13Lehecka J. (11)Tabilo A.2 : 1
    14Struff J-L.Michelsen A. (33)0 : 2
    15Griekspoor T. (29)Dzumhur D.2 : 0
    16Hurkacz H.Musetti L. (6)0 : 2
    17Bublik A. (8)Tsitsipas S.0 : 2
    18Merida Aguilar D.Moutet C. (26)2 : 0
    19Davidovich Fokina A. (20)Carreno-Busta P.2 : 0
    20Munar J.Ruud C. (12)0 : 2
    21Cerundolo F. (16)Hanfmann Y.2 : 0
    22Cerundolo J. M.Darderi L. (18)0 : 2
    23Nakashima B. (28)Blockx A.1 : 2
    24Gaubas V.Auger-Aliassime F. (3)0 : 2
    25Medvedev D. (7)Marozsan F.2 : 1
    26Budkov Kjaer N.Shapovalov D. (31)2 : 0
    27Tien L. (17)Vallejo D.0 : 2
    28Ugo Carabelli C.Cobolli F. (10)1 : 2
    29Khachanov K. (13)Walton A.2 : 0
    30Damm M.Mensik J. (23)0 : 2
    31Humbert U. (30)Atmane T.0 : 2
    32Navone M.Zverev A. (2)1 : 2

    1/16-finals
    1Sinner J. (1)Moller E.2 : 0
    2Norrie C. (19)Tirante T. A.2 : 0
    3Kopriva V.Rinderknech A. (RET.) (22)1 : 1
    4Fonseca J. (27)Jodar R.
    5Prizmic D.Etcheverry T. M. (25)1 : 2
    6Fils A. (21)Nava E.2 : 0
    7Lehecka J. (11)Michelsen A. (33)2 : 0
    8Griekspoor T. (29)Musetti L. (6)0 : 2
    9Tsitsipas S.Merida Aguilar D.
    10Davidovich Fokina A. (20)Ruud C. (12)
    11Cerundolo F. (16)Darderi L. (18)
    12Blockx A.Auger-Aliassime F. (3)
    13Medvedev D. (7)Budkov Kjaer N.
    14Vallejo D.Cobolli F. (10)
    15Khachanov K. (13)Mensik J. (23)
    16Atmane T.Zverev A. (2)

    1/8-finals
    1Sinner J. (1)Norrie C. (19)
    2Kopriva V.TBD #4
    3Etcheverry T. M. (25)Fils A. (21)
    4Lehecka J. (11)Musetti L. (6)
    5TBD #9TBD #10
    6TBD #11TBD #12
    7TBD #13TBD #14
    8TBD #15TBD #16

    Quarter-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4
    3TBD #5TBD #6
    4TBD #7TBD #8

    Semi-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4

    Final
    1TBD #1TBD #2