Alex De Minaur vs Rafael Nadal – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

27/04/2024 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

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ATP - SINGLES: Madrid (Spain), clay - 1/32-finals
Referee: Murphy F. (Irl)
Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	SportKlub
Brazil	ESPN 2
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Croatia	SportKlub
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 3
Denmark	TV2 Sport X
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Urheilu
France	Eurosport 1
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis
Poland	Polsat Sport News
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub
Ukraine	Setanta Sports

Match Stats


Aces
2	0
Double Faults
3	2
1st Serve Percentage
67%	73%
1st Serve Points Won
63% (29/46)	71% (32/45)
2nd Serve Points Won
52% (12/23)	53% (9/17)
Break Points Saved
20% (1/5)	50% (2/4)
1st Return Points Won
29% (13/45)	37% (17/46)
2nd Return Points Won
47% (8/17)	48% (11/23)
Break Points Converted
50% (2/4)	80% (4/5)
Max Points In Row
6	6
Service Points Won
61% (41/67)	66% (41/62)
Return Points Won
34% (21/62)	39% (26/67)
Total Points Won
48% (62/129)	52% (67/129)
Max Games In Row
2	3
Service Games Won
64% (7/11)	80% (8/10)
Return Games Won
20% (2/10)	36% (4/11)
Total Games Won
43% (9/21)	57% (12/21)

Chances of winning

Alex De Minaur
58.5%

Rafael Nadal
41.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.1%

47.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alex De Minaur has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alex De Minaur's performance.

Rafael Nadal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Rafael Nadal might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alex De Minaur than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alex De Minaur that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rafael Nadal than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Rafael Nadal could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Alex De Minaur - Rafael Nadal Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↓ (1.83)		2.34 ↑ (1.83)	3.8% (9.3%)

What is the prediction for Alex De Minaur - Rafael Nadal?

Users Predictions: 56 users predict this event. De Minaur will win (votes: 27 - 48.2%). Nadal will win (votes: 29 - 51.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nadal: 38.7% – 64.9%.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.

Preview Facts

Last 5 head-to-head matches De Minaur won 2.
One and the other player get a very uncertain game.
Nadal could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
De Minaur will have a small advantage in this match.
Last 6 head-to-head matches De Minaur won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 5-8.

How many head-to-head matches has Alex De Minaur won against Rafael Nadal?

Alex De Minaur has won 2 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Rafael Nadal won against Alex De Minaur?

Rafael Nadal has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Alex De Minaur - Rafael Nadal were as follows:

17.04.2024 Alex De Minaur - Rafael Nadal 2:0

02.01.2023 Rafael Nadal - Alex De Minaur 1:2

Latest results of Alex De Minaur

18.04.2024 Alex De Minaur - Arthur Fils 0:2 ✺

17.04.2024 Alex De Minaur - Rafael Nadal 2:0 ✺

12.04.2024 Novak Djokovic - Alex De Minaur 2:0 ✺

11.04.2024 Alex De Minaur - Alexei Popyrin 2:0 ✺

10.04.2024 Alex De Minaur - Tallon Griekspoor 2:1 ✺

Latest results of Rafael Nadal

25.04.2024 Darwin Blanch - Rafael Nadal 0:2 ✺

17.04.2024 Alex De Minaur - Rafael Nadal 2:0 ✺

16.04.2024 Flavio Cobolli - Rafael Nadal 0:2 ✺

07.03.2024 Milos Raonic - Rafael Nadal Canceled ✺

03.03.2024 Rafael Nadal - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 1:2 ✺

Draw

Singles - Main

1/64-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Bye
2	Bonzi B. (Q)	Droguet T. (Q)	2 : 1
3	Moller E. (Q)	Cina F. (WC)	2 : 0
4	Bye	Diallo G. (32)
5	Norrie C. (19)	Bye
6	Machac T.	Comesana F.	2 : 1
7	Bautista-Agut R.	Tirante T. A.	0 : 2
8	Bye	Paul T. (15)
9	Rublev A. (9)	Bye
10	Zhang Z. (PR)	Kopriva V.	0 : 2
11	Sonego L.	Lajovic D. (Q)	0 : 2
12	Bye	Rinderknech A. (22)
13	Fonseca J. (27)	Bye
14	Bergs Z.	Cilic M.	1 : 2
15	Jodar R. (WC)	De Jong J.	2 : 1
16	Bye	De Minaur A. (5)
17	Shelton B. (4)	Bye
18	Prizmic D. (Q)	Berrettini M.	2 : 0
19	Basilashvili N. (Q)	Ofner S.	0 : 2
20	Bye	Etcheverry T. M. (25)
21	Fils A. (21)	Bye
22	Buse I.	Mannarino A.	2 : 0
23	Brooksby J.	Nava E.	0 : 2
24	Bye	Vacherot V. (14)
25	Lehecka J. (11)	Bye
26	Tabilo A.	Royer V.	2 : 0
27	Muller A.	Struff J-L.	0 : 2
28	Bye	Michelsen A. (33)
29	Griekspoor T. (29)	Bye
30	Dzumhur D.	Bellucci M.	2 : 0
31	Faria J. (Q)	Hurkacz H.	0 : 2
32	Bye	Musetti L. (6)
33	Bublik A. (8)	Bye
34	Kypson P. (LL)	Tsitsipas S.	1 : 2
35	Trungelliti M. (LL)	Merida Aguilar D. (Q)	1 : 2
36	Bye	Moutet C. (26)
37	Davidovich Fokina A. (20)	Bye
38	Carreno-Busta P. (WC)	Fucsovics M.	2 : 1
39	Munar J.	Shevchenko A.	2 : 0
40	Bye	Ruud C. (12)
41	Cerundolo F. (16)	Bye
42	Hanfmann Y.	Giron M.	2 : 1
43	Altmaier D.	Cerundolo J. M.	0 : 2
44	Bye	Darderi L. (18)
45	Nakashima B. (28)	Bye
46	Garin C. (LL)	Blockx A.	1 : 2
47	Gaubas V. (Q)	Baez S.	2 : 0
48	Bye	Auger-Aliassime F. (3)
49	Medvedev D. (7)	Bye
50	Marozsan F.	Quinn E.	2 : 0
51	Budkov Kjaer N. (Q)	Opelka R. (RET.)	0 : 0
52	Bye	Shapovalov D. (31)
53	Tien L. (17)	Bye
54	Vallejo D. (Q)	Dimitrov G.	2 : 0
55	Ugo Carabelli C.	Monfils G. (WC)	2 : 0
56	Bye	Cobolli F. (10)
57	Khachanov K. (13)	Bye
58	Landaluce M. (WC)	Walton A.	0 : 2
59	Popyrin A.	Damm M. (Q)	0 : 2
60	Bye	Mensik J. (23)
61	Humbert U. (30)	Bye
62	Atmane T.	Kecmanovic M.	2 : 0
63	Borges N.	Navone M.	0 : 2
64	Bye	Zverev A. (2)

1/32-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Bonzi B. (Q)	2 : 1
2	Moller E. (Q)	Diallo G. (RET.) (32)	1 : 0
3	Norrie C. (19)	Machac T.	2 : 1
4	Tirante T. A.	Paul T. (15)	2 : 0
5	Rublev A. (9)	Kopriva V.	0 : 2
6	Lajovic D.	Rinderknech A. (22)	0 : 2
7	Fonseca J. (WO.) (27)	Cilic M.
8	Jodar R.	De Minaur A. (5)	2 : 0
9	Shelton B. (4)	Prizmic D.	1 : 2
10	Ofner S.	Etcheverry T. M. (25)	0 : 2
11	Fils A. (21)	Buse I.	2 : 1
12	Nava E.	Vacherot V. (14)	2 : 1
13	Lehecka J. (11)	Tabilo A.	2 : 1
14	Struff J-L.	Michelsen A. (33)	0 : 2
15	Griekspoor T. (29)	Dzumhur D.	2 : 0
16	Hurkacz H.	Musetti L. (6)	0 : 2
17	Bublik A. (8)	Tsitsipas S.	0 : 2
18	Merida Aguilar D.	Moutet C. (26)	2 : 0
19	Davidovich Fokina A. (20)	Carreno-Busta P.	2 : 0
20	Munar J.	Ruud C. (12)	0 : 2
21	Cerundolo F. (16)	Hanfmann Y.	2 : 0
22	Cerundolo J. M.	Darderi L. (18)	0 : 2
23	Nakashima B. (28)	Blockx A.	1 : 2
24	Gaubas V.	Auger-Aliassime F. (3)	0 : 2
25	Medvedev D. (7)	Marozsan F.	2 : 1
26	Budkov Kjaer N.	Shapovalov D. (31)	2 : 0
27	Tien L. (17)	Vallejo D.	0 : 2
28	Ugo Carabelli C.	Cobolli F. (10)	1 : 2
29	Khachanov K. (13)	Walton A.	2 : 0
30	Damm M.	Mensik J. (23)	0 : 2
31	Humbert U. (30)	Atmane T.	0 : 2
32	Navone M.	Zverev A. (2)	1 : 2

1/16-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Moller E.	2 : 0
2	Norrie C. (19)	Tirante T. A.	2 : 0
3	Kopriva V.	Rinderknech A. (RET.) (22)	1 : 1
4	Fonseca J. (27)	Jodar R.
5	Prizmic D.	Etcheverry T. M. (25)	1 : 2
6	Fils A. (21)	Nava E.	2 : 0
7	Lehecka J. (11)	Michelsen A. (33)	2 : 0
8	Griekspoor T. (29)	Musetti L. (6)	0 : 2
9	Tsitsipas S.	Merida Aguilar D.
10	Davidovich Fokina A. (20)	Ruud C. (12)
11	Cerundolo F. (16)	Darderi L. (18)
12	Blockx A.	Auger-Aliassime F. (3)
13	Medvedev D. (7)	Budkov Kjaer N.
14	Vallejo D.	Cobolli F. (10)
15	Khachanov K. (13)	Mensik J. (23)
16	Atmane T.	Zverev A. (2)

1/8-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Norrie C. (19)
2	Kopriva V.	TBD #4
3	Etcheverry T. M. (25)	Fils A. (21)
4	Lehecka J. (11)	Musetti L. (6)
5	TBD #9	TBD #10
6	TBD #11	TBD #12
7	TBD #13	TBD #14
8	TBD #15	TBD #16

Quarter-finals

1	TBD #1	TBD #2
2	TBD #3	TBD #4
3	TBD #5	TBD #6
4	TBD #7	TBD #8

Semi-finals

1	TBD #1	TBD #2
2	TBD #3	TBD #4

Final

1

TBD #1

TBD #2