RB Leipzig vs Bayer Leverkusen – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football German Bundesliga
Result
1:3
20/12/2025 at 12:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • Bundesliga - Round 15
  • Referee: Brand B. (Ger)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.843.17
Ball Possession
44%56%
Total shots
1915
Shots on target
78
Big Chances
24
Corner Kicks
28
Passes
85% (403/473)90% (550/608)
Yellow Cards
12
Expected Goals (xG)
1.843.17
xG on target (xGOT)
1.593.22
Total shots
1915
Shots on target
78
Shots off target
63
Blocked Shots
64
Shots inside the Box
1212
Shots outside the Box
73
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
24
Corner Kicks
28
Touches in opposition box
2533
Accurate through passes
14
Offsides
11
Free Kicks
1210
Passes
85% (403/473)90% (550/608)
Long passes
56% (24/43)45% (19/42)
Passes in final third
69% (92/134)87% (102/117)
Crosses
17% (3/18)14% (3/21)
Expected assists (xA)
1.861.70
Throw-ins
1512
Fouls
1012
Tackles
75% (12/16)64% (7/11)
Duels won
4542
Clearances
2920
Interceptions
1111
Errors leading to shot
12
Errors leading to goal
10
Goalkeeper Saves
56
xGOT faced
3.221.59
Goals prevented
0.220.59

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 2)
  • 30', Arthur 🟨,
  • 35', 1 - 0, Schlager X. ⚽, Baumgartner C. (A),
  • 40', 1 - 1, Terrier M. ⚽, Arthur (A),
  • 44', 1 - 2, Schick P. ⚽, Tella N. (A),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 57', Hofmann J. ↓, Fernandez E. ↑,
  • 70', Nedeljkovic K. ↓, Baku R. ↑,
  • 70', Romulo Cardoso ↓, Maksimovic A. ↑,
  • 77', Schick P. ↓, Kofane C. ↑,
  • 77', Terrier M. ↓, Culbreath M. ↑,
  • 77', Tella N. ↓, Tape A. ↑,
  • 79', Gomis T. ↓, Werner T. ↑,
  • 83', Arthur ↓, Lucas ↑,
  • 87', Tape A. 🟨,
  • 89', Seiwald N. ↓, Bitshiabu E. ↑,
  • 90+7', 1 - 3, Culbreath M. ⚽,
  • 90+11', Lukeba C. 🟨,

Chances of winning


RB Leipzig
44.9%		Draw
24.9%		Bayer Leverkusen
30.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
47.8% 24.1% 28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.1% 23.9% 27.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • RB Leipzig has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)
  • Bayer Leverkusen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (+3.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (-2.3%)
    •

    RB Leipzig - Bayer Leverkusen Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.13 ↑
    (1.99)    		 3.83 ↓
    (3.95)    		 3.18 ↓
    (3.38)    		 4.5%
    (5.2%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
    What is the prediction for RB Leipzig - Bayer Leverkusen?
  • Users Predictions: 62 users predict this event. RB Leipzig will win (votes: 46 - 74.2%). Bayer will win (votes: 5 - 8.1%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 17.7%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for RB Leipzig: 63.3% – 85.1%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • BTTS - no (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .
    • DNB - RB Leipzig (1.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 3 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • AH -0.25 - RB Leipzig (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.5 - RB Leipzig (2.06) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 1.5, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): RB Leipzig will win (22 of 26 users predict this - 84.62%) 🥇 Gold Tip.
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 29 high ROI users predict this event. RB Leipzig (votes: 25 - 86.2%). Tie (votes: 4 - 13.8%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, RB Leipzig won 1.
    • RB Leipzig is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Bayer has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • RB Leipzig may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • RB Leipzig could have a small edge in this match.
    • There will not play in RB Leipzig: Bakayoko J. (Muscle Injury) Banzuzi E. (Muscle Injury) Diomande Y. (International duty) Gebel V. (Knee Injury) Haidara A. (International duty) Henrichs B. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Kampl K. (Personal Reasons) Nusa A. (Ankle Injury) Ouedraogo A. (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Bayer: Ben Seghir E. (International duty) Kofane C. (International duty) Maza I. (International duty) Palacios E. (Groin Injury) Poku E. (Injury) Quansah J. (Yellow Cards) Tapsoba E. (International duty)
    • There are questionable in RB Leipzig: Bitshiabu E. (Muscle Injury)
    • There are questionable in Bayer: Lucas (Muscle Injury)
    • In the last 18 head-to-head matches, RB Leipzig won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 31:28. (average 1.7:1.6).
    • Including home matches between the teams, RB Leipzig won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:13. (average 1.6:1.4).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between RB Leipzig - Bayer Leverkusen were as follows:
    25.01.2025 RB Leipzig - Bayer Leverkusen 2:2
    31.08.2024 Bayer Leverkusen - RB Leipzig 2:3
    20.01.2024 RB Leipzig - Bayer Leverkusen 2:3
    19.08.2023 Bayer Leverkusen - RB Leipzig 3:2
    23.04.2023 Bayer Leverkusen - RB Leipzig 2:0
    Latest results of RB Leipzig
    12.12.2025 Union Berlin - RB Leipzig 3:1 ✺
    06.12.2025 RB Leipzig - Eintracht Frankfurt 6:0 ✺
    02.12.2025 RB Leipzig - Magdeburg 3:1 ✺
    28.11.2025 Borussia Mönchengladbach - RB Leipzig 0:0 ✺
    23.11.2025 RB Leipzig - Werder Bremen 2:0 ✺
    Latest results of Bayer Leverkusen
    13.12.2025 Bayer Leverkusen - Köln 2:0 ✺
    10.12.2025 Bayer Leverkusen - Newcastle United 2:2 ✺
    06.12.2025 Augsburg - Bayer Leverkusen 2:0 ✺
    02.12.2025 Borussia Dortmund - Bayer Leverkusen 0:1 ✺
    29.11.2025 Bayer Leverkusen - Borussia Dortmund 1:2 ✺
    German Bundesliga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Bayern Munich23193185:216460
    2Dortmund23157149:222752
    3Hoffenheim23144549:301946
    4Stuttgart23134644:321243
    5RB Leipzig23125644:321241
    6Bayer Leverkusen22123743:281539
    7Freiburg2396834:37-333
    8Eintracht Frankfurt2387846:49-331
    9Union Berlin2377929:37-828
    10Augsburg23841128:41-1328
    11Hamburger SV2268825:32-726
    12FC Koln23661133:39-624
    13Mainz23571126:38-1222
    14B. Monchengladbach23571126:39-1322
    15Wolfsburg23551333:49-1620
    16St. Pauli23551322:40-1820
    17Werder Bremen23471223:44-2119
    18Heidenheim23351522:51-2914

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Bundesliga (Relegation)
          Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga

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