Hamburger SV vs RB Leipzig – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football German Bundesliga
Result
1:2
01/03/2026 at 13:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • Bundesliga - Round 24
  • Referee: Dankert B. (Ger)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaStarTimes App, Startimes World Football
albaniaAlbaniaTring Sport 2
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
armeniaArmeniaFast Sports 2, Fast Sports
australiaAustraliabeIN Connect
austriaAustriaDAZN
bulgariaBulgariaDiema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
canadaCanadaDAZN Canada, OneSoccer
chinaChinaMigu, QQ Sports
croatiaCroatiaSportKlub 1
czech-republicCzech-republicNova Sport 6, Oneplay
denmarkDenmarkTV3 MAX, Viaplay
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV, Viaplay 3 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
franceFrancebeIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 7, Free
georgiaGeorgiaSetanta Sports 2
germanyGermanyDAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch
greeceGreeceNova Sports 2
hong-kongHong-kongbeIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player
hungaryHungaryArena 4
icelandIcelandSÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
indiaIndiaSony LIV, Vision+
indonesiaIndonesiaK-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
israelIsraelSport 3
japanJapanDAZN Japan
laosLaosbeIN Connect
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
maltaMaltaGO TV, TSN Malta 5
mexicoMexicoIzzi TV, Sky Sport
mongoliaMongoliaPremier Sports 5
mozambiqueMozambiqueStartimes Mania
netherlandsNetherlandsViaplay
new-zealandNew-zealandbeIN Connect
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaSky Sports Norte
north-macedoniaNorth-macedoniaMaxTV GO
norwayNorwayTV2 Play, Viaplay, V Sport 3
pakistanPakistanTapmad
papua-new-guineaPapua-new-guineaTVWan Sports
peruPeruDisney+
philippinesPhilippinesbeIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
polandPolandEleven Sports 3
portugalPortugalDAZN 4, DAZN / App
romaniaRomaniaDigi Online, Digi Sport 4, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
saudi-arabiaSaudi-arabiaMBC Shahid
serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 2
singaporeSingaporebeIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
slovakiaSlovakiaNova Sport 6, Voyo
sloveniaSloveniaSport TV1
south-koreaSouth-koreaCoupang Play
spainSpainDAZN Espana, M+ Liga de Campeones 2, Movistar Plus+, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 2
swedenSwedenViaplay, V Sport Fotbool
switzerlandSwitzerlandDAZN Switzerland
thailandThailandbeIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
turkeyTurkeyS Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
ukraineUkraineKyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomAmazon Prime Video
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+
vietnamVietnamTV 360
worldWorldOnefootball

Match Stats

Expected goals (xG)
0.552.71
Ball possession
42%58%
Total shots
713
Shots on target
35
Big chances
13
Corner kicks
49
Passes
80% (289/362)87% (433/499)
Yellow cards
32
Expected goals (xG)
0.552.71
xG on target (xGOT)
0.692.95
Total shots
713
Shots on target
35
Shots off target
34
Blocked shots
14
Shots inside the box
310
Shots outside the box
43
Hit the woodwork
00
Big chances
13
Corner kicks
49
Touches in opposition box
1143
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
10
Free kicks
128
Passes
80% (289/362)87% (433/499)
Long passes
51% (28/55)40% (17/43)
Passes in final third
51% (40/79)72% (109/151)
Crosses
11% (2/18)32% (8/25)
Expected assists (xA)
0.431.78
Throw ins
2117
Fouls
812
Tackles
64% (9/14)90% (9/10)
Duels won
4141
Clearances
3232
Interceptions
57
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
11
Goalkeeper saves
32
xGOT faced
2.950.69
Goals prevented
0.95-0.31

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 1)
  • 20', Capaldo N. ↓, Omari W. ↑,
  • 22', 1 - 0, Vieira F. ⚽, Mikelbrencis W. (A),
  • 31', Orban W. 🟨,
  • 36', 1 - 1, Romulo Cardoso ⚽, Baku R. (A),
  • 45+3', Otele P. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 50', 1 - 2, Diomande Y. ⚽, Romulo Cardoso (A),
  • 62', Romulo Cardoso (Penalty Awarded),
  • 63', Romulo Cardoso 🟨,
  • 67', Konigsdorffer R. ↓, Lokonga A. S. ↑,
  • 67', Otele P. ↓, Dompe J. ↑,
  • 67', Downs D. ↓, Poulsen Y. ↑,
  • 72', Nusa A. ↓, Banzuzi E. ↑,
  • 72', Gruda B. ↓, Gomis T. ↑,
  • 81', Muheim M. 🟨,
  • 82', Poulsen Y. 🟨,
  • 87', Vieira F. ↓, Philippe R. ↑,
  • 90+1', Diomande Y. ↓, Henrichs B. ↑,
  • 90+5', Romulo Cardoso ↓, Harder C. ↑,

Chances of winning


Hamburger SV
24.7%		Draw
24.1%		RB Leipzig
51.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
29.2% 25.8% 45%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29% 26% 45.3%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Hamburger SV has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)
  • RB Leipzig has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting RB Leipzig's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (+4.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (-5.8%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for RB Leipzig, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
    •

    Hamburger SV - RB Leipzig Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 3.88 ↑
    (3.23)    		 3.95 ↑
    (3.67)    		 1.87 ↓
    (2.1)    		 4.5%
    (5.9%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
    What is the prediction for Hamburger SV - RB Leipzig?
  • Users Predictions: 59 users predict this event. Hamburg will win (votes: 5 - 8.5%). RB Leipzig will win (votes: 47 - 79.7%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 11.9%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for RB Leipzig: 69.4% – 90%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • O/U 3 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 7 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
    • O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • DC - Hamburg (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • AH +1.5 - Hamburg (1.30) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): RB Leipzig will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%) 🥇 Gold Tip.
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 16 high ROI users predict this event. Hamburg (votes: 3 - 18.8%). RB Leipzig (votes: 13 - 81.3%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 11 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 0.
    • Hamburg is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • RB Leipzig has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • RB Leipzig may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • RB Leipzig might have a minor edge in this game.
    • There will not play in Hamburg: Gronbaek A. (Thigh Injury) Lokonga A. S. (Injury) Rossing-Lelesiit A. (Injury)
    • There will not play in RB Leipzig: Gebel V. (Knee Injury) Gulacsi P. (Knee Injury) Nedeljkovic K. (Back Injury) Ouedraogo A. (Knee Injury) Sani S. (Ankle Injury) Schlager X. (Groin Injury)
    • In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 6:16. (average 0.9:2.3).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Hamburg won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 1:9. (average 0.3:3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Hamburger SV - RB Leipzig were as follows:
    18.10.2025 RB Leipzig - Hamburger SV 2:1
    18.10.2022 RB Leipzig - Hamburger SV 4:0
    Latest results of Hamburger SV
    20.02.2026 Mainz - Hamburger SV 1:1 ✺
    14.02.2026 Hamburger SV - Union Berlin 3:2 ✺
    07.02.2026 Heidenheim - Hamburger SV 0:2 ✺
    31.01.2026 Hamburger SV - Bayern Munich 2:2 ✺
    23.01.2026 St. Pauli - Hamburger SV 0:0 ✺
    Latest results of RB Leipzig
    21.02.2026 RB Leipzig - Borussia Dortmund 2:2 ✺
    15.02.2026 RB Leipzig - Wolfsburg 2:2 ✺
    11.02.2026 Bayern Munich - RB Leipzig 2:0 ✺
    08.02.2026 Köln - RB Leipzig 1:2 ✺
    31.01.2026 RB Leipzig - Mainz 1:2 ✺
    German Bundesliga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Bayern Munich24203188:236563
    2Dortmund24157251:252652
    3Hoffenheim24144649:311846
    4Stuttgart24144648:321646
    5RB Leipzig24135646:331344
    6Bayer Leverkusen23124744:291540
    7Eintracht Frankfurt2497848:49-134
    8Freiburg2496934:39-533
    9Augsburg24941130:41-1131
    10Union Berlin24771029:38-928
    11Hamburger SV2368926:34-826
    12B. Monchengladbach24671127:39-1225
    13FC Koln24661233:41-824
    14Mainz24581127:39-1223
    15St. Pauli24651323:40-1723
    16Werder Bremen24571225:44-1922
    17Wolfsburg24551433:53-2020
    18Heidenheim24351622:53-3114

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Bundesliga (Relegation)
          Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga

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