Caen vs Red Star – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football French Ligue 2 Caen - Red Star
Result
1:1
02/05/2025 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Ligue 2 - Round 33
  • Referee: Abed K. (Fra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
franceFrancebeIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 9, Free

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.600.70
Ball Possession
45%55%
Total shots
1410
Shots on target
44
Big Chances
01
Corner Kicks
42
Passes
86% (355/411)89% (458/512)
Yellow Cards
02
Expected Goals (xG)
0.600.70
xG on target (xGOT)
1.050.88
Total shots
1410
Shots on target
44
Shots off target
55
Blocked Shots
51
Shots inside the Box
85
Shots outside the Box
65
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
01
Corner Kicks
42
Touches in opposition box
1911
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
11
Free Kicks
1313
Passes
86% (355/411)89% (458/512)
Long passes
60% (31/52)59% (30/51)
Passes in final third
74% (86/117)76% (77/101)
Crosses
29% (5/17)35% (7/20)
Expected assists (xA)
0.690.72
Throw-ins
2115
Fouls
1313
Tackles
88% (14/16)67% (10/15)
Duels won
4440
Clearances
2622
Interceptions
610
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
33
xGOT faced
0.881.05
Goals prevented
-0.120.05

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 31', 0 - 1, Badji A. , Hachem R. (A),
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 55', Benrahou Y. , Najim I. ,
  • 55', Coulibaly K. , Mendy A. ,
  • 55', Tavares H. , Milliner L. ,
  • 64', Kyeremeh G. , Brahimi B. ,
  • 70', Dembi F. J. , Mbock H. ,
  • 70', Eickmayer J. , Renel S. ,
  • 73', 1 - 1, Najim I. , Lebreton N. (A),
  • 79', Cisse K. , Lemonnier P. ,
  • 80', Badji A. , Fall A. ,
  • 84', Durivaux D. 🟨,
  • 88', Durand D. , Escartin J. ,
  • 90+4', Escartin J. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Caen
34.3%
Draw
27.9%
Red Star
37.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
49.2% 25.9% 25%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.5% 25.2% 24.4%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Caen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.9%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Caen's form might have worsened.
  • Red Star has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Red Star's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caen than the current prediction. (+16.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Caen, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Red Star than the current prediction. (-13.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Red Star, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Caen - Red Star Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.74
    (1.89)
    3.41
    (3.59)
    2.51
    (3.72)
    5.7%
    (7.6%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
  • What is the prediction for Caen - Red Star?
  • Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Caen will win (votes: 2 - 11.8%). Red Star will win (votes: 4 - 23.5%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 64.7%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 42%87.4%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Red Star (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH 0 - Red Star (votes: 4 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ National and 15).
    • Caen is Relegated to National
    • Caen has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).
    • In recent matches, Red Star has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
    • The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
    • There will not play in Caen: Autret M. (Inactive) Benrahou Y. (Inactive) Henry V. (Inactive) Ntim E. (Thigh Injury) Rajot L. (Inactive) Thomas R. (Achilles Tendon Injury)
    • There will not play in Red Star: Avognan W. (Injury) Benali H. (Injury) Danger B. (Injury) Doucoure F. (Injury) Doucoure R. (Injury) Lemonnier P. (Injury) Slimani R. (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Caen: Gaucho Debohi D. (Injury)
    • In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Caen won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Caen - Red Star were as follows:
    18.10.2024 Red Star - Caen 2:2
    Latest results of Caen
    26.04.2025 Lorient - Caen 4:0
    18.04.2025 Caen - Martigues 0:3
    11.04.2025 Rodez - Caen 2:2
    05.04.2025 Caen - Metz 2:2
    31.03.2025 Paris FC - Caen 4:2
    Latest results of Red Star
    25.04.2025 Red Star - Clermont 1:1
    19.04.2025 Metz - Red Star 2:2
    11.04.2025 Red Star - Annecy 0:1
    05.04.2025 Troyes - Red Star 2:2
    28.03.2025 Red Star - Rodez 1:1
    French Ligue 2 Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Grenoble00000:000
    2Le Mans00000:000
    3Nancy00000:000
    4St Etienne00000:000
    5Amiens00000:000
    6Bastia00000:000
    7Clermont00000:000
    8Guingamp00000:000
    9Montpellier00000:000
    10Reims00000:000
    11Troyes00000:000
    12Laval00000:000
    13Pau FC00000:000
    14Rodez00000:000
    15Annecy00000:000
    16Dunkerque00000:000
    17Red Star00000:000

          Promotion ~ Ligue 1
          Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)
          Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)
          Ligue 2 (Relegation)
          Relegation ~ National