Troyes vs Red Star – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

03/01/2026 at 08:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Stade de l'Aube (Troyes).

Ligue 2 - Round 18
Referee: Kubler G. (Fra)
Where to Watch on TV:


Andorra	beIN Sports 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, beIN Sports MENA French 1, TOD
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Free

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.44	1.22
Ball Possession
41%	59%
Total shots
18	14
Shots on target
6	1
Big Chances
1	1
Corner Kicks
6	4
Passes
74% (257/345)	81% (421/517)
Yellow Cards
1	2
Expected Goals (xG)
1.44	1.22
xG on target (xGOT)
0.67	0.00
Total shots
18	14
Shots on target
6	1
Shots off target
7	7
Blocked Shots
5	6
Shots inside the Box
9	10
Shots outside the Box
9	3
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Big Chances
1	1
Corner Kicks
6	4
Touches in opposition box
31	20
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
3	1
Free Kicks
11	14
Passes
74% (257/345)	81% (421/517)
Long passes
31% (18/59)	47% (34/73)
Passes in final third
69% (101/147)	56% (45/80)
Crosses
24% (5/21)	42% (5/12)
Expected assists (xA)
0.99	0.95
Throw-ins
11	23
Fouls
14	11
Tackles
64% (9/14)	78% (7/9)
Duels won
46	46
Clearances
13	21
Interceptions
17	6
Errors leading to shot
1	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
0	5
xGOT faced
0.00	0.67
Goals prevented
0.00	-0.33

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 0)
36', Maronnier L. 🟨,
43', 1 - 0, Bentayeb T. ⚽, Adeline M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Sylla D. ↓, Benali H. ↑,
46', Ikanga J. ↓, Cabral K. ↑,
58', Khaoui S. E. 🟨,
65', Khaoui S. E. ↓, Trani G. ↑,
68', Detourbet M. ↓, Assoumou J. ↑,
80', Bentayeb T. ↓, Ripart R. ↑,
80', Adeline M. ↓, Phliponeau A. ↑,
84', Cisse K. ↓, Hachem A. ↑,
90+4', Danger B. 🟨,

Chances of winning

Troyes
49.9%

Draw
28.6%

Red Star
21.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.8%

28.3%

18.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.3%

27%

18%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Troyes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Red Star has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Troyes than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Troyes, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Red Star than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

Troyes - Red Star Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↑ (1.77)	3.24 ↓ (3.3)	4.37 ↓ (4.96)	7.5% (7%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

What is the prediction for Troyes - Red Star?

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Troyes will win (votes: 8 - 50%). Red Star will win (votes: 4 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Troyes: 25.5% – 74.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Red Star will win (2 of 3 users predict this - 66.67%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.

Preview Facts

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Troyes won 4.
Troyes is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).
Red Star is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
Red Star may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Recently, Troyes has had a series of away games.
In this match, Troyes is seen as the favorite.
There will not play in Troyes: El Idrissy M. (Inactive) Gozzi P. (Broken Leg) Lemaitre N. (Knee Injury) Titi Y. (Hamstring Injury)
There will not play in Red Star: Benali H. (Inactive) Doucoure R. (Knee Injury) Rabouille V. (Inactive)
There are questionable in Red Star: Hachem R. (Injury)
In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Troyes won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 18:6. (average 2.6:0.9).
Including home matches between the teams, Troyes won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:4. (average 2.3:1.3).

How many head-to-head matches has Troyes won against Red Star?

Troyes has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Red Star won against Troyes?

Red Star has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Troyes - Red Star were as follows:

23.09.2025 Red Star - Troyes 1:3

05.04.2025 Troyes - Red Star 2:2

08.11.2024 Red Star - Troyes 0:3

Latest results of Troyes

20.12.2025 Olympique Marcq-en-Baroeul - Troyes 1:3 ✺

15.12.2025 Boulogne - Troyes 1:2 ✺

06.12.2025 Troyes - Rodez 1:1 ✺

30.11.2025 Touraine - Troyes 0:2 ✺

21.11.2025 Laval - Troyes 0:1 ✺

Latest results of Red Star

13.12.2025 Red Star - Reims 0:0 ✺

05.12.2025 Bastia - Red Star Abandoned ✺

29.11.2025 Biesheim - Red Star 2:1 ✺

22.11.2025 Red Star - Clermont 2:2 ✺

08.11.2025 Le Mans - Red Star 0:0 ✺

French Ligue 2 Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Troyes ✔	33	20	7	6	60:32	28	67
2	Le Mans	33	15	14	4	48:31	17	59
3	St Etienne	33	17	6	10	54:38	16	57
4	Red Star	33	16	9	8	44:36	8	57
5	Rodez	33	14	13	6	43:38	5	55
6	Reims	33	13	14	6	48:32	16	53
7	Annecy	33	15	7	11	48:37	11	52
8	Montpellier	33	14	8	11	40:30	10	50
9	Pau FC	33	12	9	12	45:57	-12	45
10	Dunkerque	33	11	10	12	51:42	9	43
11	Guingamp	33	10	10	13	42:48	-6	40
12	Grenoble	33	7	15	11	32:39	-7	36
13	Boulogne	33	9	9	15	33:47	-14	36
14	Clermont	33	8	10	15	37:44	-7	34
15	Nancy	33	8	10	15	32:50	-18	34
16	Laval	33	5	14	14	28:47	-19	29
17	Bastia	33	5	13	15	23:37	-14	28
18	Amiens ✔	33	6	6	21	37:60	-23	24

      Promotion ~ Ligue 1
      Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)
      Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)
      Ligue 2 (Relegation)
      Relegation ~ National

Clinched Spots for Teams

Troyes is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Ligue 1
Amiens is Relegated to National