Result
4:0
22/03/2026 at 12:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- HNL - Round 27
- Referee: Strukan D. (Cro)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 4 |
 Croatia | MAX Sport 1, MAXtv To Go |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.04 | 0.36 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 43% | 57% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 76% (265/347) | 83% (376/451) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.04 | 0.36 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 3.43 | 0.35 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 7 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 19 | 16 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 76% (265/347) | 83% (376/451) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 51% (33/65) | 49% (18/37) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 66% (69/104) | 66% (78/118) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 33% (3/9) | 33% (8/24) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.34 | 0.68 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 17 | 28 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 73% (11/15) | 75% (12/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 51 | 39 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 21 | 12 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 11 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.35 | 3.43 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.35 | -0.57 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 12', 1 - 0, Erceg A. ⚽, Pozo I. (A),
- 2nd Half (3 - 0)
- 46', Vignato S. ↓, Gojak A. ↑,
- 52', 2 - 0, Bogojevic B. ⚽, Prsir J. (A),
- 56', Morchiladze T. ↓, Dantas T. ↑,
- 56', Pavic B. ↓, Adu Adjei D. ↑,
- 68', Prsir J. (Penalty Awarded),
- 70', 3 - 0, Bogojevic B. ⚽, Cabraja M. (A),
- 71', Legbo D. ↓, Bodetic N. ↑,
- 72', Fruk T. ↓, Rukavina G. ↑,
- 72', Prsir J. ↓, Epailly T. ↑,
- 76', 4 - 0, Bogojevic B. ⚽, Epailly T. (A),
- 79', Filipovic J. 🟨,
- 83', Rukavina G. 🟨,
- 84', Bogojevic B. ↓, Vrzic L. ↑,
- 84', Pavicic D. ↓, Kucis S. ↑,
- 86', Barco A. 🟨,
- 90+1', Erceg A. ↓, Gashi M. ↑,
- 90+2', Pozo I. ↓, Bakic O. ↑,
Chances of winning
Gorica
31.7% | Draw
31.3% | Rijeka
37% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Gorica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)Rijeka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gorica than the current prediction. (-3.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rijeka than the current prediction. (+5.7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Rijeka could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Gorica - Rijeka Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.97 ↓
(3.12) |
2.99 ↓
(3.16) |
2.52 ↑
(2.27) |
6.9%
(7.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Gorica - Rijeka?
Users Predictions:
Rijeka will win
(8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 8 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gorica won 0.
- Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
- Gorica may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Gorica has had a series of away games.
- Rijeka is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Rijeka: Barisic T.
(Injury)
Orec A.
(Yellow Cards)
Skoric M.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Rijeka: Ndockyt M.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Gorica won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 13:31. (average 0.7:1.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Gorica won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 8:15. (average 0.8:1.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Gorica won against Rijeka?
Gorica has won 1 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Rijeka won against Gorica?
Rijeka has won 11 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Gorica - Rijeka were as follows:
21.12.2025
Rijeka
-
Gorica
1:0
05.10.2025
Gorica
-
Rijeka
1:3
04.05.2025
Rijeka
-
Gorica
2:1
01.03.2025
Gorica
-
Rijeka
0:0
30.11.2024
Rijeka
-
Gorica
1:0
Croatian HNL Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Din. Zagreb | 27 | 20 | 3 | 4 | 68:22 | 46 | 63 |
| 2 | Hajduk Split | 27 | 16 | 5 | 6 | 45:25 | 20 | 53 |
| 3 | Rijeka | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 37:31 | 6 | 38 |
| 4 | Varazdin | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 34:38 | -4 | 37 |
| 5 | Istra 1961 | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 33:37 | -4 | 36 |
| 6 | Slaven Belupo | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 37:42 | -5 | 36 |
| 7 | Gorica | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 33:38 | -5 | 31 |
| 8 | Lok. Zagreb | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 31:45 | -14 | 30 |
| 9 | Osijek | 27 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 22:36 | -14 | 25 |
| 10 | Vukovar 1991 | 27 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 26:52 | -26 | 20 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Relegation ~ Prva NL
