Result
1:3
05/10/2025 at 09:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- HNL - Round 9
- Referee: Kolaric P. (Cro)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 3 |
 Croatia | MAX Sport 1, MAXtv To Go |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.74 | 2.04 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 65% | 35% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (458/531) | 78% (223/286) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.74 | 2.04 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.26 | 2.14 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 9 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 14 | 21 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (458/531) | 78% (223/286) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 46% (18/39) | 44% (20/45) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 70% (77/110) | 63% (47/75) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 10% (3/30) | 20% (2/10) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.40 | 0.46 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 32 | 23 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 9 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 75% (6/8) | 77% (10/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 44 | 35 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 15 | 32 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 12 | 13 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.14 | 1.26 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.86 | 0.26 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 22', 0 - 1, Dantas T. ⚽,
- 33', Pozo I. 🟨,
- 44', Carevic M. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 2)
- 50', Petrovic D. 🟨,
- 60', Kavelj A. ↓, Bakic O. ↑,
- 60', Pavicic D. ↓, Vrzic L. ↑,
- 63', Thaqi D. ↓, Menalo L. ↑,
- 63', Cop D. ↓, Adu Adjei D. ↑,
- 68', 0 - 2, Fruk T. ⚽, Adu Adjei D. (A),
- 69', Fruk T. ↓, Jankovic N. ↑,
- 69', Dantas T. ↓, Gojak A. ↑,
- 70', Durakovic E. ↓, Gashi M. ↑,
- 78', Prsir J. ↓, Fiolic I. ↑,
- 80', 1 - 2, Cuic F. ⚽, Gashi M. (A),
- 82', 1 - 3, Adu Adjei D. ⚽, Radeljic S. (A),
- 90+2', Lasickas J. ↓, Kitin L. ↑,
Chances of winning
Gorica
25.4% | Draw
29.1% | Rijeka
45.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Gorica has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)Rijeka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gorica than the current prediction. (+5.3%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gorica, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rijeka than the current prediction. (-5.9%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Rijeka, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Gorica - Rijeka Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.88 ↑
(3.23) |
3.3 ↑
(3.2) |
2.11 ↓
(2.24) |
3.6%
(7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Gorica - Rijeka?
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Gorica will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Rijeka will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rijeka: 35.9% – 97.5%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Rijeka (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 7 and 9)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gorica won 0.
- Gorica has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Rijeka's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Gorica may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Rijeka will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Gorica: Erceg A.
(Red Card)
- There will not play in Rijeka: Cop D.
(Inactive)
Devetak M.
(Yellow Cards)
Kreilach D.
(Inactive)
Rukavina G.
(Inactive)
Skoric M.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Gorica: Peric S.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Gorica won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 15:31. (average 0.8:1.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Gorica won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 10:16. (average 0.9:1.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Gorica won against Rijeka?
Gorica has won 1 of their last 12 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Rijeka won against Gorica?
Rijeka has won 9 of their last 12 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Gorica - Rijeka were as follows:
04.05.2025
Rijeka
-
Gorica
2:1
01.03.2025
Gorica
-
Rijeka
0:0
30.11.2024
Rijeka
-
Gorica
1:0
14.09.2024
Gorica
-
Rijeka
0:1
21.04.2024
Rijeka
-
Gorica
3:0
Croatian HNL Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Hajduk Split | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 20:8 | 12 | 25 |
| 2 | D. Zagreb | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22:8 | 14 | 22 |
| 3 | Lok. Zagreb | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12:12 | 0 | 16 |
| 4 | Varazdin | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 13:11 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Slaven Belupo | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13:18 | -5 | 13 |
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 9:14 | -5 | 12 |
| 7 | Rijeka | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 12:12 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Gorica | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 13:19 | -6 | 11 |
| 9 | Osijek | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9:11 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Vukovar 1991 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9:19 | -10 | 6 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Relegation ~ Prva NL
