Result
3:1
14/02/2026 at 11:15 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- HNL - Round 22
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 4 |
 Croatia | MAX Sport 1, MAXtv To Go |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 4.23 | 1.19 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 54% | 46% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 26 | 18 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 9 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (257/332) | 82% (235/286) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 4.23 | 1.19 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.60 | 2.44 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 26 | 18 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 9 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 8 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 9 | 5 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 21 | 8 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 10 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 42 | 15 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (257/332) | 82% (235/286) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 27% (11/41) | 41% (14/34) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 66% (68/103) | 69% (53/77) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 33% (8/24) | 22% (4/18) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 2.23 | 1.00 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 19 | 17 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 9 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 71% (12/17) | 63% (10/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 51 | 56 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 19 | 26 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 12 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.44 | 2.60 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.44 | -0.40 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 10', Fruk T. (Penalty Awarded),
- 11', Juric A. 🟨,
- 20', 1 - 0, Dantas T. ⚽, Fruk T. (A),
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 46', Marina M. ↓, Ilinkovic S. ↑,
- 46', Radeljic S. 🟨,
- 48', 2 - 0, Juric A. ⚽, Adu Adjei D. (A),
- 52', Skaricic L. ↓, Lesjak S. ↑,
- 58', Juric A. ↓, Petrovic D. ↑,
- 58', Fruk T. ↓, Gojak A. ↑,
- 61', 3 - 0, Petrovic D. ⚽,
- 64', Mamic L. ↓, Canjuga I. ↑,
- 64', Latkovic A. ↓, Tavares I. ↑,
- 65', Sikosek G. 🟨,
- 71', Orec A. ↓, Legbo D. ↑,
- 71', Radeljic S. ↓, Devetak M. ↑,
- 74', Vuk M. 🟨,
- 79', Dantas T. ↓, Rukavina G. ↑,
- 81', Ilinkovic S. ↓, Tepsic N. ↑,
- 84', Lasickas J. 🟨,
- 90+1', 3 - 1, Lesjak S. ⚽, Canjuga I. (A),
Chances of winning
Rijeka
55.5% | Draw
26.5% | Varaždin
18% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Rijeka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)Varaždin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rijeka than the current prediction. (+0.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Varaždin than the current prediction. (+1.2%)
Rijeka - Varaždin Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.68 ↓
(1.77) |
3.53 ↑
(3.33) |
5.18 ↑
(4.44) |
7%
(9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Rijeka - Varaždin?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- DC - Rijeka (1.14) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +0.5 - Varaždin (4.43) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Rijeka will win
(13 of 16 users predict this - 81.25%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.12% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Rijeka will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 7 high ROI users predict this event. Rijeka (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Varaždin (votes: 2 - 28.6%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 6 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rijeka won 1.
- In recent matches, Rijeka has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Varaždin is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Rijeka may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Rijeka is a strong favorite.
- There will not play in Rijeka: Bodetic N.
(Injury)
Skoric M.
(Injury)
- There will not play in Varaždin: Barac M.
(Inactive)
Puncec R.
(Yellow Cards)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Rijeka won 9 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 27:21. (average 1.4:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Rijeka won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:9. (average 1.7:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Rijeka won against Varaždin?
Rijeka has won 5 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Varaždin won against Rijeka?
Varaždin has won 6 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Rijeka - Varaždin were as follows:
09.11.2025
Varaždin
-
Rijeka
1:0
24.08.2025
Rijeka
-
Varaždin
1:2
13.04.2025
Rijeka
-
Varaždin
1:0
01.02.2025
Varaždin
-
Rijeka
1:0
26.10.2024
Rijeka
-
Varaždin
1:1
Latest results of Varaždin
Croatian HNL Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Din. Zagreb | 24 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 56:19 | 37 | 54 |
| 2 | Hajduk Split | 24 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 36:21 | 15 | 47 |
| 3 | Rijeka | 24 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 36:25 | 11 | 35 |
| 4 | Slaven Belupo | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 33:36 | -3 | 34 |
| 5 | Varazdin | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 30:35 | -5 | 33 |
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 29:35 | -6 | 30 |
| 7 | Lok. Zagreb | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 29:37 | -8 | 29 |
| 8 | Gorica | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 27:36 | -9 | 26 |
| 9 | Osijek | 24 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 21:36 | -15 | 20 |
| 10 | Vukovar 1991 | 24 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 26:43 | -17 | 20 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Relegation ~ Prva NL
