Result
1:2
25/10/2025 at 15:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 9
- Referee: Branco Godinho L. M. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.84 | 0.61 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 57% | 43% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (367/424) | 81% (267/330) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.84 | 0.61 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.84 | 0.48 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 27 | 12 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 20 | 16 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (367/424) | 81% (267/330) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 50% (21/42) | 31% (13/42) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 75% (77/103) | 54% (28/52) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 16% (4/25) | 44% (4/9) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.85 | 0.68 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 19 | 24 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 16 | 20 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 80% (12/15) | 44% (8/18) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 53 | 44 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 11 | 33 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.48 | 0.84 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.52 | -0.16 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 10', Aguilera Zamora B. 🟨,
- 24', Ngom O. 🟨,
- 28', 1 - 0, Moreira P. ⚽, Meireles J. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 2)
- 46', Aguilera Zamora B. ↓, Pohlmann O. ↑,
- 46', Petrasso F. ↓, Liavas G. ↑,
- 50', 1 - 1, Andre Luiz ⚽, Clayton (A),
- 57', Otavio ↓, Montoia G. ↑,
- 67', Meireles J. ↓, Robinho ↑,
- 67', Spikic D. ↓, Papakanellos A. ↑,
- 67', Marcus A. ↓, Stoica I. ↑,
- 72', 1 - 2, Vrousai M. ⚽, Ntoi A. (A),
- 74', Encada J. ↓, Gastao J. ↑,
- 74', Moreira P. ↓, Rodrigo Pinho ↑,
- 74', Panzo J. 🟨,
- 75', Miszta C. 🟨,
- 82', Clayton ↓, Gual M. ↑,
- 85', Robinho 🟨,
- 85', Athanasiou N. 🟨,
- 85', Pohlmann O. 🟨,
- 90', Andre Luiz ↓, Lomboto J. ↑,
- 90+3', Cabral S. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Estrela da Amadora
42.5% | Draw
30.6% | Rio Ave
27% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Estrela da Amadora has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Estrela da Amadora's performance.Rio Ave has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Rio Ave might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estrela da Amadora than the current prediction. (-5.4%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Estrela da Amadora that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rio Ave than the current prediction. (+6.6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Rio Ave could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Estrela da Amadora - Rio Ave Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.31 ↓
(2.55) |
3.23 ↑
(3.2) |
3.83 ↑
(2.78) |
0.4%
(6.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Estrela da Amadora - Rio Ave?
Users Predictions:
15 users predict this event. Estrela will win (votes: 3 - 20%). Rio Ave will win (votes: 9 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rio Ave: 35.2% – 84.8%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 6 high ROI users predict this event. Rio Ave (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- DC - Rio Ave (1.48) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 8 high ROI users predict this event. Rio Ave (votes: 6 - 75%). Tie (votes: 2 - 25%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 15 and 12).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Estrela won 1.
- Estrela has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Rio Ave has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- There will not play in Estrela: Ni
(Foot Injury)
Semeu
(Injury)
- There will not play in Rio Ave: Bakoulas T.
(Knee Injury)
Clayton
(Red Card)
Richards O.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Estrela: Alisson Souza
(Inactive)
Jovane
(Inactive)
- In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Estrela won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:11. (average 1:1.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Estrela won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:7. (average 1.7:2.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Estrela da Amadora won against Rio Ave?
Estrela da Amadora has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Rio Ave won against Estrela da Amadora?
Rio Ave has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Estrela da Amadora - Rio Ave were as follows:
05.05.2025
Rio Ave
-
Estrela da Amadora
2:0
23.12.2024
Estrela da Amadora
-
Rio Ave
1:0
14.04.2024
Estrela da Amadora
-
Rio Ave
2:2
02.12.2023
Rio Ave
-
Estrela da Amadora
1:1
Latest results of Estrela da Amadora
Latest results of Rio Ave
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 24 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 47:8 | 39 | 65 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 24 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 62:12 | 50 | 61 |
| 3 | Benfica | 24 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 51:14 | 37 | 58 |
| 4 | Braga | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 50:23 | 27 | 45 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 35:23 | 12 | 40 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 29:21 | 8 | 36 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 30:34 | -4 | 34 |
| 8 | Estoril | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 46:42 | 4 | 33 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 28:35 | -7 | 32 |
| 10 | Alverca | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 24:39 | -15 | 27 |
| 11 | Arouca | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 32:52 | -20 | 26 |
| 12 | Estrela | 24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 26:41 | -15 | 24 |
| 13 | Casa Pia | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 26:44 | -18 | 23 |
| 14 | Nacional | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 28:36 | -8 | 21 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 24 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 23:44 | -21 | 21 |
| 16 | Santa Clara | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 20:31 | -11 | 19 |
| 17 | Tondela | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 19:38 | -19 | 19 |
| 18 | AFS | 24 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 18:57 | -39 | 9 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
