Result
2:1
15/03/2026 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 26
- Referee: Verissimo F. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 3 |
 Portugal | Sport TV4 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.75 | 1.34 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 44% | 56% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 6 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (296/358) | 84% (389/462) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.75 | 1.34 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 3.62 | 0.45 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 12 | 5 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 6 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 25 | 15 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 16 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (296/358) | 84% (389/462) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 27% (14/52) | 54% (31/57) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 70% (76/108) | 63% (73/116) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 16% (4/25) | 28% (5/18) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.92 | 1.10 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 14 | 20 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 16 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 67% (10/15) | 53% (10/19) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 38 | 52 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 22 | 41 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 15 | 4 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.45 | 3.62 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.55 | 1.62 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 8', Brabec J. 🟨,
- 15', Scholze M. 🟨,
- 27', 1 - 0, Blesa J. ⚽, Spikic D. (A),
- 45+1', Pohlmann O. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 48', 2 - 0, Blesa J. ⚽, Spikic D. (A),
- 54', Stoica I. ↓, Robinho ↑,
- 54', Otavio ↓, Doue G. ↑,
- 58', Pohlmann O. ↓, Ryan Guilherme ↑,
- 66', 2 - 1, Rodrigo Pinho ⚽, Robinho (A),
- 67', van der Gouw E. 🟨,
- 68', Ryan Guilherme 🟨,
- 76', Spikic D. ↓, Tome J. ↑,
- 76', Abbey N. ↓, Monteiro T. ↑,
- 80', Doue G. 🟨,
- 83', Scholze M. ↓, Antonetti L. ↑,
- 88', Diogo Bezerra ↓, Liavas G. ↑,
- 89', Blesa J. ↓, Petrasso F. ↑,
- 89', Langa B. ↓, Kalley Y. ↑,
- 89', Luan Patrick ↓, Moustier T. ↑,
Chances of winning
Rio Ave
40.6% | Draw
29.2% | Estrela da Amadora
30.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Rio Ave has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)Estrela da Amadora has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rio Ave than the current prediction. (-3.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estrela da Amadora than the current prediction. (+4.8%)
Rio Ave - Estrela da Amadora Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.34 ↓
(2.53) |
3.23 ↓
(3.52) |
3.1 ↑
(2.84) |
5.9%
(3.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Rio Ave - Estrela da Amadora?
Users Predictions:
8 users predict this event. Rio Ave will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rio Ave: 29% – 96%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 14 and 12)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rio Ave won 2.
- Rio Ave has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- In recent matches, Estrela has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Estrela may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- There will not play in Rio Ave: Aguilera Zamora B.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Estrela: Encada J.
(Injury)
van Hooijdonk S.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Rio Ave: Abbey N.
(Injury)
Lomboto J.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Estrela: Antonetti L.
(Inactive)
Marcus A.
(Injury)
- In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Rio Ave won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:7. (average 1.9:1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Rio Ave won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 1.3:0.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Rio Ave won against Estrela da Amadora?
Rio Ave has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Estrela da Amadora won against Rio Ave?
Estrela da Amadora has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Rio Ave - Estrela da Amadora were as follows:
25.10.2025
Estrela da Amadora
-
Rio Ave
1:2
05.05.2025
Rio Ave
-
Estrela da Amadora
2:0
23.12.2024
Estrela da Amadora
-
Rio Ave
1:0
14.04.2024
Estrela da Amadora
-
Rio Ave
2:2
02.12.2023
Rio Ave
-
Estrela da Amadora
1:1
Latest results of Rio Ave
Latest results of Estrela da Amadora
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 31 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 63:15 | 48 | 82 |
| 2 | Benfica | 31 | 22 | 9 | 0 | 67:20 | 47 | 75 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 31 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 77:22 | 55 | 73 |
| 4 | Braga | 31 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 59:31 | 28 | 56 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 39:27 | 12 | 51 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 46:32 | 14 | 49 |
| 7 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 38:43 | -5 | 42 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 31 | 11 | 6 | 14 | 34:45 | -11 | 39 |
| 9 | Alverca | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 34:49 | -15 | 38 |
| 10 | Estoril | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 51:52 | -1 | 37 |
| 11 | Arouca | 31 | 10 | 5 | 16 | 39:60 | -21 | 35 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 33:52 | -19 | 34 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 28:38 | -10 | 32 |
| 14 | Nacional | 31 | 8 | 7 | 16 | 34:41 | -7 | 31 |
| 15 | Estrela | 31 | 6 | 10 | 15 | 34:51 | -17 | 28 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 29:55 | -26 | 26 |
| 17 | Tondela | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 23:52 | -29 | 22 |
| 18 | AFS ✔ | 31 | 1 | 11 | 19 | 22:65 | -43 | 14 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
Clinched Spots for Teams
AFS is Relegated to Liga Portugal 2
