Result
3:1
24/09/2025 at 20:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Copa Libertadores - Play Offs - Quarter-finals
- Referee: Matonte Cabrera A. M. (Uru)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Disney+, FOX Sports, Mi Telefe App, Mi Telefe, Telefe |
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD |
 Australia | Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3 |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 1 |
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Globoplay, RedeTV!, Sky+, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Bulgaria | Max Sport 4 |
 Canada | beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol |
 Chile | Disney+, ESPN Premium |
 Colombia | Disney+, ESPN |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go |
 Germany | Magenta Sport, Sportdigital1+ |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 8 |
 Indonesia | Mola TV |
 Israel | Sport 2 |
 Italy | Como TV |
 Kosovo | Arena Premium 1 |
 Malaysia | Mola |
 Mexico | Disney+, ESPN 2 |
 Netherlands | Canal+, ESPN 1 |
 New-zealand | beIN Connect |
 Peru | Disney+, ESPN |
 Poland | Polsat Sport 2 |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Russia | Okko Sport |
 Serbia | Arena Premium 1 |
 Slovenia | Arena Sport 1 |
 South-america | ESPN South |
 Spain | LaLiga+ |
 Turkey | S Sport, S Sport+ |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz |
 Venezuela | Disney+, ESPN, Inter |
 World | Pluto TV |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.90 | 0.61 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 58% | 42% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 10 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (275/375) | 64% (167/262) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.90 | 0.61 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.57 | 1.50 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 10 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 17 | 17 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (275/375) | 64% (167/262) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 49% (36/73) | 20% (9/46) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 50% (52/103) | 58% (60/104) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 36% (4/11) | 17% (2/12) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.95 | 0.76 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 25 | 28 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 8 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 57% (12/21) | 70% (14/20) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 63 | 46 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 24 | 26 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 18 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 7 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.50 | 2.57 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.50 | -0.43 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 8', 0 - 1, Salas M. ⚽, Quintero J. (A),
- 23', Portillo J. 🟨,
- 27', Portillo J. ↓, Perez E. ↑,
- 45+3', Weverton 🟨,
- 45+3', Giuliano Galoppo 🟨,
- 2nd Half (3 - 0)
- 51', 1 - 1, Vitor Roque ⚽,
- 55', Acuna M. 🟨,
- 56', Vitor Roque 🟨,
- 60', Quintero J. ↓, Colidio F. ↑,
- 60', Fernandez N. ↓, Lencina S. ↑,
- 60', Gomez G. ↓, Bruno Fuchs ↑,
- 67', Salas M. 🟨,
- 70', Giuliano Galoppo ↓, Miguel Borja ↑,
- 75', Perez E. 🟨,
- 78', Pereira A. ↓, Torres F. ↑,
- 78', Moreno A. ↓, Martinez E. ↑,
- 87', Acuna M. 🟨,
- 89', Castano K. 🟨,
- 90+1', 2 - 1, Lopez J. (Pen),
- 90+3', Felipe Anderson ↓, Allan ↑,
- 90+3', Vitor Roque ↓, Raphael Veiga ↑,
- 90+4', 3 - 1, Lopez J. ⚽, Raphael Veiga (A),
Chances of winning
Palmeiras
46.7% | Draw
30.4% | River Plate
22.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Palmeiras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Palmeiras's form might have worsened.River Plate has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (+6.6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Palmeiras, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for River Plate than the current prediction. (-2.7%)
Palmeiras - River Plate Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.25 ↑
(1.82) |
3.31 ↓
(3.48) |
4.25 ↓
(4.57) |
-1.8%
(5.6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Palmeiras - River Plate?
Users Predictions:
Palmeiras will win
(15 of 16 users predict this - 93.75%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.89% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Palmeiras will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- 1st leg result: 2-1. 2nd leg.
- Palmeiras has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- In recent matches, River Plate has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- In this match, Palmeiras is considered a favorite.
- There will not play in Palmeiras: Khellven
(Foot Injury)
Paulinho
(Leg Injury)
- There will not play in River Plate: Costantini G.
(Inactive)
Martinez P.
(Calf Injury)
Meza M.
(Knee Injury)
Pezzella G.
(Knee Injury)
Ruberto A.
(Knee Injury)
Subiabre I.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in River Plate: Driussi S.
(Injury)
- We predict that Palmeiras will win today's game, with odds of 1.78.
- In the last 1 head-to-head match, Palmeiras won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.
How many head-to-head matches has Palmeiras won against River Plate?
Palmeiras has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has River Plate won against Palmeiras?
River Plate has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Palmeiras - River Plate were as follows:
17.09.2025
River Plate
-
Palmeiras
1:2
Latest results of Palmeiras
Latest results of River Plate
Draw
Play Offs1/8-finals| 1 | Atl. Nacional | Sao Paulo | 1 : 2, 0 : 0 |
| 2 | Botafogo RJ | LDU Quito | 0 : 2, 1 : 0 |
| 3 | Libertad Asuncion | River Plate | 1 : 2, 0 : 0 |
| 4 | U. de Deportes | Palmeiras | 0 : 0, 0 : 4 |
| 5 | Cerro Porteno | Estudiantes L.P. | 0 : 0, 0 : 1 |
| 6 | Flamengo RJ | Internacional | 2 : 0, 1 : 0 |
| 7 | Fortaleza | Velez Sarsfield | 0 : 2, 0 : 0 |
| 8 | Penarol | Racing Club | 1 : 3, 1 : 0 |
Quarter-finals| 1 | Sao Paulo | LDU Quito | 0 : 1, 0 : 2 |
| 2 | River Plate | Palmeiras | 1 : 3, 1 : 2 |
| 3 | Estudiantes L.P. | Flamengo RJ | 1 : 1, 1 : 2 |
| 4 | Velez Sarsfield | Racing Club | 0 : 1, 0 : 1 |
Semi-finals| 1 | LDU Quito | Palmeiras | |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | Racing Club | |
Final
