Castrovillari vs San Luca – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Italian Serie D - Group I Castrovillari - San Luca
Result
2:1
07/04/2024 at 09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • ITALY: Serie D - Group I - Round 34

Match Stats

Red Cards
10

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 43', 1 - 0, Palma M. ,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 66', 2 - 0, Palma M. ,
  • 67', 🟥,
  • 90+2', 2 - 1, Apostu A. ,

Chances of winning


Castrovillari
21.1%
Draw
24.6%
San Luca
54.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
28.6% 26.7% 44.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.2% 26.2% 43.8%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Castrovillari has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Castrovillari's form might have worsened.
  • San Luca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting San Luca's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Castrovillari than the current prediction. (+8.1%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Castrovillari, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Luca than the current prediction. (-10.5%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for San Luca, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Castrovillari - San Luca Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    4.29
    (3.19)
    3.68
    (3.42)
    1.67
    (2.04)
    10.5%
    (9.6%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
  • Preview Facts
    • We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 17 in the zone Serie D ~ Group I (Play Out: ) and 15 in the zone Serie D ~ Group I (Play Out: )).
    • Last 5 head-to-head matches Castrovillari won 0.
    • Castrovillari is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
    • Recent matches San Luca is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
    • Castrovillari could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
    • San Luca will have a small advantage in this match.
    • Last 7 head-to-head matches Castrovillari won 0 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 8-13.
    • Including matches at home between the teams Castrovillari won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3-6.
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Castrovillari - San Luca were as follows:
    26.11.2023 San Luca - Castrovillari 3:3
    18.01.2023 San Luca - Castrovillari 2:1
    Latest results of Castrovillari
    Latest results of San Luca
    28.03.2024 San Luca - Trapani 0:0
    24.03.2024 Ragusa - San Luca 3:2
    10.03.2024 Gioiese - San Luca 2:1
    03.03.2024 San Luca - Licata 0:0
    Draw
    Winners Play Offs

    Semi-finals
    1LivornoBra4 : 1, 2 : 1
    2SiracusaOspitaletto2 : 0, 3 : 2

    Final
    1LivornoSiracusa2 : 1