Result
1:1
21/02/2026 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 23
- Referee: Carvalho H. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Ukraine |
 Uruguay | Antel TV |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.30 | 0.70 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 45% | 55% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 16 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (271/352) | 87% (373/430) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.30 | 0.70 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.92 | 1.05 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 16 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 10 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 10 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 12 | 21 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 16 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (271/352) | 87% (373/430) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 35% (22/62) | 53% (17/32) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 66% (64/97) | 74% (84/114) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 18% (2/11) | 23% (5/22) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.35 | 0.44 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 16 | 19 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 16 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 67% (10/15) | 75% (12/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 40 | 54 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 24 | 22 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.05 | 0.92 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.05 | -0.08 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 6', 1 - 0, Marezi (Penalty Awarded),
- 14', Vinicius Lopes 🟨,
- 35', Venancio F. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Marezi ↓, Sandro Lima ↑,
- 46', Ferreira P. ↓, Tavares J. ↑,
- 46', Gustavo Klismahn ↓, Brenner ↑,
- 61', Naves 🟨,
- 65', Spencer D. ↓, Kauan ↑,
- 65', Paciencia G. ↓, Fernando ↑,
- 72', Moreira V. ↓, Rhaldney ↑,
- 72', Chiquinho ↓, Nuozzi C. ↑,
- 76', 1 - 1, Fernando ⚽, Vinicius Lopes (A),
- 78', Vinicius Lopes ↓, Welinton Torrao ↑,
- 83', James I. ↓, Martinez J. ↑,
- 89', Gabriel Silva ↓, Darlan ↑,
- 90+4', Baseya S. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Alverca
29.8% | Draw
31.9% | Santa Clara
38.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Alverca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)Santa Clara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alverca than the current prediction. (-0.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santa Clara than the current prediction. (-0.2%)
Alverca - Santa Clara Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.14 ↑
(3.13) |
2.98 ↑
(2.92) |
2.5 ↑
(2.49) |
5.4%
(6.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Alverca - Santa Clara?
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Alverca will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Santa Clara will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Santa Clara: 11.9% – 76.9%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Santa Clara (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH +0.5 - Alverca (1.49) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Alverca (votes: 1 - 50%). Santa Clara (votes: 1 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 10 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).
- In recent matches, Alverca has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Santa Clara is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- There will not play in Alverca: Abdulai S.
(Injury)
Diarra S.
(Muscle Injury)
Mendes T.
(Muscle Injury)
Meupiyou B.
(Red Card)
Touaizi N.
(Yellow Cards)
- There will not play in Santa Clara: Lucas Soares
(Red Card)
- There are questionable in Alverca: Chissumba
(Injury)
Leo Chu
(Injury)
Marezi
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Santa Clara: MT
(Injury)
- In the last 1 head-to-head match, Alverca won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.
How many head-to-head matches has Alverca won against Santa Clara?
Alverca has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Santa Clara won against Alverca?
Santa Clara has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Alverca - Santa Clara were as follows:
20.09.2025
Santa Clara
-
Alverca
2:1
Latest results of Alverca
Latest results of Santa Clara
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 27 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 54:11 | 43 | 72 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 26 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 68:15 | 53 | 65 |
| 3 | Benfica | 27 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 58:17 | 41 | 65 |
| 4 | Braga | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 53:27 | 26 | 46 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 33:22 | 11 | 45 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 39:28 | 11 | 42 |
| 7 | Estoril | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 48:44 | 4 | 37 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 27 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 31:39 | -8 | 35 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 29:42 | -13 | 32 |
| 10 | Rio Ave | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 28:46 | -18 | 30 |
| 11 | Alverca | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 27:45 | -18 | 29 |
| 12 | Arouca | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 34:55 | -21 | 29 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 27 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 24:31 | -7 | 28 |
| 14 | Estrela | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 33:45 | -12 | 28 |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 26:48 | -22 | 24 |
| 16 | Nacional | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 29:39 | -10 | 22 |
| 17 | Tondela | 26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 19:39 | -20 | 20 |
| 18 | AFS | 27 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 18:58 | -40 | 11 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
