Result
2:1
12/02/2026 at 17:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 3
- Referee: Abatti R. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Austria | DAZN |
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | ZhiBo8 |
 Ecuador | Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
 Germany | DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL |
 Mexico | Azteca Deportes |
 Switzerland | DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
 United-arab-emirates | Dubai Sports 1 |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.07 | 0.74 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 57% | 43% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (320/399) | 79% (243/309) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.07 | 0.74 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.90 | 1.58 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 6 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 24 | 14 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 15 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (320/399) | 79% (243/309) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 41% (21/51) | 42% (22/52) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 59% (56/95) | 61% (45/74) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 35% (7/20) | 17% (1/6) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.01 | 0.49 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 28 | 22 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 15 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 70% (7/10) | 69% (11/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 41 | 49 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 29 | 33 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 11 | 13 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.58 | 1.90 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.58 | -0.10 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 6', 1 - 0, Julimar (Penalty Awarded),
- 17', 1 - 1, Thaciano ⚽,
- 27', Gabriel Bontempo 🟨,
- 39', Hellmann O. 🟨,
- 42', Portilla J. ↓, Luiz Gustavo ↑,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 67', Leo Derik ↓, Dudu Kogitzki ↑,
- 67', Julimar ↓, Chiqueti ↑,
- 68', Miguelito ↓, Moises ↑,
- 68', Gabriel Bontempo ↓, Barreal A. ↑,
- 74', Igor Vinicius 🟨,
- 87', Chiqueti 🟨,
- 88', Thaciano ↓, Diaz L. ↑,
- 89', Rony ↓, Joao Basso ↑,
- 89', Zapelli B. ↓, Jadson ↑,
- 89', Mendoza S. ↓, Bruninho ↑,
- 90+1', 2 - 1, Viveros K. ⚽, Esquivel L. (A),
- 90+3', Vinicius Lira 🟨,
- 90+4', Vinicius Lira ↓, Rollheiser B. ↑,
Chances of winning
Athletico Paranaense
46% | Draw
29.7% | Santos
24.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Athletico Paranaense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Athletico Paranaense's performance.Santos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Santos might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (-7.3%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Athletico Paranaense that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santos than the current prediction. (+5.6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Santos could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Athletico Paranaense - Santos Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.08 ↓
(2.44) |
3.19 ↑
(2.97) |
3.91 ↑
(3.1) |
5%
(6.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Athletico Paranaense - Santos?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- DC - Athletico PR (1.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DNB - Santos (2.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Athletico Paranaense will win
(18 of 21 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 70.74% – 100%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Athletico Paranaense will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletico PR (votes: 6 - 85.7%). Santos (votes: 1 - 14.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletico PR won 1.
- Athletico PR is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- In recent matches, Santos has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Athletico PR may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Athletico PR could have a small edge in this match.
- There will not play in Athletico PR: Felipinho
(Inactive)
Renan Peixoto
(Injury)
- There will not play in Santos: Frias A.
(Inactive)
Neymar
(Knee Injury)
Willian Arao
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Santos: Barreal A.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Athletico PR won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 18:22. (average 0.9:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Athletico PR won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:8. (average 1.3:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Athletico Paranaense won against Santos?
Athletico Paranaense has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Santos won against Athletico Paranaense?
Santos has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Athletico Paranaense - Santos were as follows:
03.12.2023
Athletico Paranaense
-
Santos
3:0
05.08.2023
Santos
-
Athletico Paranaense
1:1
27.09.2022
Santos
-
Athletico Paranaense
2:0
Latest results of Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Serie A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 21:10 | 11 | 26 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 18:10 | 8 | 20 |
| 3 | Sao Paulo | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15:9 | 6 | 20 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 18:13 | 5 | 20 |
| 5 | Bahia | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15:10 | 5 | 20 |
| 6 | Athletico-PR | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 17:13 | 4 | 19 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 13:12 | 1 | 16 |
| 8 | Atletico-MG | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 14:13 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 11:12 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | Vitoria | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11:14 | -3 | 14 |
| 11 | Botafogo RJ | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 18:21 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 | Gremio | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 14:14 | 0 | 13 |
| 13 | Vasco | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 16:17 | -1 | 13 |
| 14 | Internacional | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 9:10 | -1 | 13 |
| 15 | Santos | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 14:16 | -2 | 13 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 8:11 | -3 | 11 |
| 17 | Cruzeiro | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14:21 | -7 | 10 |
| 18 | Remo | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11:18 | -7 | 8 |
| 19 | Chapecoense-SC | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 10:18 | -8 | 8 |
| 20 | Mirassol | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11:16 | -5 | 6 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B
