Result
2:1
20/04/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 5
- Referee: Sampaio W. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Premiere, Rede Globo, Sky+, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.57 | 1.45 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 42% | 58% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 6 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (256/324) | 85% (378/446) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.57 | 1.45 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.74 | 1.66 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 6 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 1 | 7 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 12 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 12 | 29 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 17 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (256/324) | 85% (378/446) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 35% (17/48) | 49% (29/59) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 66% (54/82) | 74% (86/117) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 0% (0/11) | 40% (10/25) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.41 | 1.01 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 17 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 55% (12/22) | 75% (21/28) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 52 | 83 |
| Clearances Total |
|---|
| 27 | 29 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.66 | 1.74 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.66 | -0.26 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 1)
- 10', 1 - 0, Ferreira ⚽, Andre Silva (A),
- 22', 2 - 0, Andre Silva ⚽, Ferreira (A),
- 31', Rollheiser B. 🟨,
- 41', Sabino 🟨,
- 45+3', 2 - 1, Tiquinho Soares (Pen),
- 45+5', Marcos Antonio 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 48', Tiquinho Soares 🟨,
- 58', Rafael 🟨,
- 63', Alisson 🟨,
- 75', Matheus Alves 🟨,
- 76', Godoy L. ↓, Joao Pedro Chermont ↑,
- 76', Barreal A. ↓, Gabriel Veron ↑,
- 77', Matheus Alves ↓, Bobadilla D. ↑,
- 77', Lucas Ferreira ↓, Ferraresi N. ↑,
- 79', Gabriel Bontempo ↓, Diego Pituca ↑,
- 88', Joao Schmidt ↓, Thaciano ↑,
- 90+1', Soares C. ↓, Igor Vinicius ↑,
- 90+2', Marcos Antonio ↓, Rodriguinho ↑,
- 90+2', Rodriguinho 🟨,
- 90+5', Diaz E. 🟨,
- 90+8', Gil 🟨,
Chances of winning
São Paulo
41.4% | Draw
32% | Santos
26.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.5%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that São Paulo's form might have worsened.Santos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+11.1%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for São Paulo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santos than the current prediction. (-4%)
São Paulo - Santos Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.31 ↑
(1.83) |
2.99 ↓
(3.6) |
3.6 ↓
(4) |
4.6%
(7.4%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for São Paulo - Santos?
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Santos will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for São Paulo: 11.9% – 76.9%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 6 high ROI users predict this event. São Paulo (votes: 3 - 50%). Tie (votes: 3 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Last 5 head-to-head matches São Paulo won 2.
- Recent matches São Paulo is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
- Santos is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
- Santos could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
- In this match São Paulo is a favorite.
- There will not play in São Paulo: Lucas Moura
(Knee Injury)
Luiz Gustavo
(Injury)
Oscar
(Hamstring Injury)
Pablo Maia
(Ankle Injury)
Young
(Foot Injury)
- There will not play in Santos: Aderlan
(Knee Injury)
Hyan
(Knee Injury)
Soteldo Y.
(Muscle Injury)
Souza
(Ankle Injury)
Ze Rafael
(Back Injury)
- There are questionable in São Paulo: Jonathan Calleri
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Santos: Neymar
(Hamstring Injury)
- Last 20 head-to-head matches São Paulo won 8 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 27:21 (average 1.4:1.1).
- Including matches at home between the teams São Paulo won 7 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 20:10 (average 1.8:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has São Paulo won against Santos?
São Paulo has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Santos won against São Paulo?
Santos has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between São Paulo - Santos were as follows:
01.02.2025
Santos
-
São Paulo
3:1
14.02.2024
São Paulo
-
Santos
0:1
12.11.2023
Santos
-
São Paulo
0:0
16.07.2023
São Paulo
-
Santos
4:1
12.02.2023
São Paulo
-
Santos
3:1
Latest results of São Paulo
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Flamengo RJ | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 30:6 | 24 | 36 |
| 2 | Cruzeiro | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 28:11 | 17 | 34 |
| 3 | Palmeiras | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 19:12 | 7 | 32 |
| 4 | Bahia | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 20:13 | 7 | 28 |
| 5 | Bragantino | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 20:20 | 0 | 27 |
| 6 | Botafogo RJ | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 18:8 | 10 | 26 |
| 7 | Mirassol | 15 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 24:14 | 10 | 25 |
| 8 | Sao Paulo | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 18:19 | -1 | 22 |
| 9 | Ceara | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 16:16 | 0 | 21 |
| 10 | Internacional | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 17:20 | -3 | 21 |
| 11 | Corinthians | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 16:20 | -4 | 21 |
| 12 | Fluminense | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 17:20 | -3 | 20 |
| 13 | Atletico-MG | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 16:16 | 0 | 20 |
| 14 | Gremio | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 16:22 | -6 | 20 |
| 15 | Vitoria | 17 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 14:18 | -4 | 17 |
| 16 | Vasco | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 16:20 | -4 | 15 |
| 17 | Santos | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 15:21 | -6 | 15 |
| 18 | Fortaleza | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 17:23 | -6 | 14 |
| 19 | Juventude | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 10:32 | -22 | 11 |
| 20 | Sport Recife | 15 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 9:25 | -16 | 5 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
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Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
