São Paulo vs Santos – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie A São Paulo - Santos
Result
2:1
20/04/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie A Betano - Round 5
  • Referee: Sampaio W. (Bra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Premiere, Rede Globo, Sky+, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping
chinaChinaK-Ball

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.571.45
Ball Possession
42%58%
Total shots
615
Shots on target
33
Big Chances
21
Corner Kicks
55
Passes
79% (256/324)85% (378/446)
Yellow Cards
73
Expected Goals (xG)
1.571.45
xG on target (xGOT)
1.741.66
Total shots
615
Shots on target
33
Shots off target
17
Blocked Shots
25
Shots inside the Box
312
Shots outside the Box
33
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
21
Corner Kicks
55
Touches in opposition box
1229
Offsides
21
Free Kicks
1417
Passes
79% (256/324)85% (378/446)
Long passes
35% (17/48)49% (29/59)
Passes in final third
66% (54/82)74% (86/117)
Crosses
0% (0/11)40% (10/25)
Expected assists (xA)
1.411.01
Fouls
1714
Tackles
55% (12/22)75% (21/28)
Duels won
5283
Clearances Total
2729
Interceptions
99
Errors leading to shot
10
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
21
xGOT faced
1.661.74
Goals prevented
0.66-0.26

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 1)
  • 10', 1 - 0, Ferreira , Andre Silva (A),
  • 22', 2 - 0, Andre Silva , Ferreira (A),
  • 31', Rollheiser B. 🟨,
  • 41', Sabino 🟨,
  • 45+3', 2 - 1, Tiquinho Soares (Pen),
  • 45+5', Marcos Antonio 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 48', Tiquinho Soares 🟨,
  • 58', Rafael 🟨,
  • 63', Alisson 🟨,
  • 75', Matheus Alves 🟨,
  • 76', Godoy L. , Joao Pedro Chermont ,
  • 76', Barreal A. , Gabriel Veron ,
  • 77', Matheus Alves , Bobadilla D. ,
  • 77', Lucas Ferreira , Ferraresi N. ,
  • 79', Gabriel Bontempo , Diego Pituca ,
  • 88', Joao Schmidt , Thaciano ,
  • 90+1', Soares C. , Igor Vinicius ,
  • 90+2', Marcos Antonio , Rodriguinho ,
  • 90+2', Rodriguinho 🟨,
  • 90+5', Diaz E. 🟨,
  • 90+8', Gil 🟨,

Chances of winning


São Paulo
41.4%
Draw
32%
Santos
26.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
50.9% 25.9% 23.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.5% 25.1% 22.6%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.5%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that São Paulo's form might have worsened.
  • Santos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+11.1%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for São Paulo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santos than the current prediction. (-4%)
  • São Paulo - Santos Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.31
    (1.83)
    2.99
    (3.6)
    3.6
    (4)
    4.6%
    (7.4%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
  • What is the prediction for São Paulo - Santos?
  • Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Santos will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for São Paulo: 11.9%76.9%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 6 high ROI users predict this event. São Paulo (votes: 3 - 50%). Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • Last 5 head-to-head matches São Paulo won 2.
    • Recent matches São Paulo is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
    • Santos is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
    • Santos could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
    • In this match São Paulo is a favorite.
    • There will not play in São Paulo: Lucas Moura (Knee Injury) Luiz Gustavo (Injury) Oscar (Hamstring Injury) Pablo Maia (Ankle Injury) Young (Foot Injury)
    • There will not play in Santos: Aderlan (Knee Injury) Hyan (Knee Injury) Soteldo Y. (Muscle Injury) Souza (Ankle Injury) Ze Rafael (Back Injury)
    • There are questionable in São Paulo: Jonathan Calleri (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in Santos: Neymar (Hamstring Injury)
    • Last 20 head-to-head matches São Paulo won 8 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 27:21 (average 1.4:1.1).
    • Including matches at home between the teams São Paulo won 7 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 20:10 (average 1.8:0.9).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between São Paulo - Santos were as follows:
    01.02.2025 Santos - São Paulo 3:1
    14.02.2024 São Paulo - Santos 0:1
    12.11.2023 Santos - São Paulo 0:0
    16.07.2023 São Paulo - Santos 4:1
    12.02.2023 São Paulo - Santos 3:1
    Latest results of São Paulo
    Latest results of Santos
    16.04.2025 Santos - Atlético Mineiro 2:0
    13.04.2025 Fluminense - Santos 1:0
    06.04.2025 Santos - Bahia 2:2
    30.03.2025 Vasco da Gama - Santos 2:1
    09.03.2025 Corinthians - Santos 2:1
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Flamengo RJ19134236:92743
    2Palmeiras18123324:15939
    3Cruzeiro20115432:141838
    4Bahia1896325:17833
    5Botafogo RJ1885523:111229
    6Mirassol1878329:191029
    7Sao Paulo2078524:22229
    8Fluminense1883723:24-127
    9Bragantino2083922:26-427
    10Ceara1974819:19025
    11Atletico-MG1866620:21-124
    12Internacional1966722:26-424
    13Gremio1965819:25-623
    14Corinthians2057819:25-622
    15Santos19631020:29-921
    16Vasco19541025:26-119
    17Vitoria20310718:24-619
    18Juventude19531117:38-2118
    19Fortaleza19361019:31-1215
    20Sport Recife18171012:27-1510

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