Result
1:0
18/03/2026 at 19:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 7
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Ecuador | Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.07 | 0.58 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 29% | 71% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (175/239) | 88% (515/584) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.07 | 0.58 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.27 | 0.39 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 8 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 17 | 13 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 17 | 16 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (175/239) | 88% (515/584) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 33% (17/52) | 61% (25/41) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 61% (43/70) | 80% (148/185) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 45% (5/11) | 5% (1/19) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.94 | 0.87 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 22 | 25 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 16 | 17 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 50% (3/6) | 58% (7/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 33 | 39 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 28 | 17 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.39 | 1.27 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.39 | 0.27 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 61', Andre Silva ↓, Luciano ↑,
- 61', Cauly ↓, Lucas Moura ↑,
- 64', Perez T. ↓, Bernard ↑,
- 64', 1 - 0, Roman I. ⚽, Franco A. (A),
- 71', Roman I. 🟨,
- 74', Lucas Moura ↓, Tapia G. ↑,
- 75', Cassierra M. ↓, Dudu ↑,
- 83', Maik ↓, Soares C. ↑,
- 83', Danielzinho ↓, Ferreira ↑,
- 87', Cuello ↓, Lyanco ↑,
- 90+4', Diaz E. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Atlético Mineiro
40.1% | Draw
31.2% | São Paulo
28.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Atlético Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Atlético Mineiro's form might have worsened.São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (+5.5%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Atlético Mineiro, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-2.3%)
Atlético Mineiro - São Paulo Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.38 ↑
(2.1) |
3.04 ↓
(3.38) |
3.29 ↓
(3.58) |
5.4%
(5.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Atlético Mineiro - São Paulo?
Users Predictions:
6 users predict this event. Atlético MG will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). São Paulo will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 50%). Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético MG (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 16 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético MG won 1.
- Atlético MG has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- São Paulo is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- São Paulo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, the opponents have had a series of away games.
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- There will not play in Atlético MG: Alexsander
(Knee Injury)
Cisse M.
(Leg Injury)
Maycon
(Calf Injury)
Ruan Tressoldi
(Yellow Cards)
Vitor Hugo
(Inactive)
- There will not play in São Paulo: Ryan Francisco
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in São Paulo: Lucca Marques
(Inactive)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atlético MG won 9 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 22:17. (average 1.1:0.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Atlético MG won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:3. (average 1.1:0.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Atlético Mineiro won against São Paulo?
Atlético Mineiro has won 4 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has São Paulo won against Atlético Mineiro?
São Paulo has won 1 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Atlético Mineiro - São Paulo were as follows:
24.08.2025
São Paulo
-
Atlético Mineiro
2:0
06.04.2025
Atlético Mineiro
-
São Paulo
0:0
23.11.2024
São Paulo
-
Atlético Mineiro
2:2
12.09.2024
Atlético Mineiro
-
São Paulo
0:0
28.08.2024
São Paulo
-
Atlético Mineiro
0:1
Latest results of Atlético Mineiro
Latest results of São Paulo
Brazilian Serie A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 21:10 | 11 | 26 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 18:10 | 8 | 20 |
| 3 | Sao Paulo | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15:9 | 6 | 20 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 18:13 | 5 | 20 |
| 5 | Bahia | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15:10 | 5 | 20 |
| 6 | Athletico-PR | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 17:13 | 4 | 19 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 13:12 | 1 | 16 |
| 8 | Atletico-MG | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 14:13 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 11:12 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | Vitoria | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11:14 | -3 | 14 |
| 11 | Botafogo RJ | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 18:21 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 | Gremio | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 14:14 | 0 | 13 |
| 13 | Vasco | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 16:17 | -1 | 13 |
| 14 | Internacional | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 9:10 | -1 | 13 |
| 15 | Santos | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 14:16 | -2 | 13 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 8:11 | -3 | 11 |
| 17 | Cruzeiro | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14:21 | -7 | 10 |
| 18 | Remo | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11:18 | -7 | 8 |
| 19 | Chapecoense-SC | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 10:18 | -8 | 8 |
| 20 | Mirassol | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11:16 | -5 | 6 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B
