São Paulo vs Atlético Mineiro – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

24/08/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Estadio Do MorumBIS (Sao Paulo).

Serie A Betano - Round 21
Referee: Casagrande L. (Bra)
Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1
Mexico	Fanatiz
Portugal	Canal 11
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
Usa	Fanatiz

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.64	0.10
Ball Possession
51%	49%
Total shots
10	5
Shots on target
5	1
Big Chances
2	0
Corner Kicks
5	1
Passes
86% (403/469)	86% (396/462)
Yellow Cards
1	2
Expected Goals (xG)
1.64	0.10
xG on target (xGOT)
2.36	0.00
Total shots
10	5
Shots on target
5	1
Shots off target
4	2
Blocked Shots
1	2
Shots inside the Box
8	1
Shots outside the Box
2	4
Hit the Woodwork
0	1
Headed Goals
1	0
Big Chances
2	0
Corner Kicks
5	1
Touches in opposition box
27	6
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
0	2
Free Kicks
14	17
Passes
86% (403/469)	86% (396/462)
Long passes
38% (13/34)	58% (31/53)
Passes in final third
75% (98/130)	73% (71/97)
Crosses
38% (6/16)	10% (1/10)
Expected assists (xA)
1.37	0.21
Throw-ins
19	18
Fouls
20	17
Tackles
81% (22/27)	52% (12/23)
Duels won
61	58
Clearances
16	20
Interceptions
9	11
Errors leading to shot
1	1
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
1	3
xGOT faced
0.00	2.36
Goals prevented
0.00	0.36

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 0)
23', 1 - 0, Pablo Maia ⚽, Bobadilla D. (A),
37', Everson 🟨,
43', Marcos Antonio ↓, Rodriguinho ↑,
45+1', Diaz E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Reinier ↓, Alexsander ↑,
60', Igor Gomes 🟨,
64', Ferreira ↓, Luciano ↑,
68', Junior Santos ↓, Biel ↑,
68', Franco A. ↓, Gustavo Scarpa ↑,
75', Igor Gomes ↓, Natanael ↑,
79', Andre Silva ↓, Tapia G. ↑,
81', 2 - 0, Tapia G. ⚽, Soares C. (A),
88', Gabriel Menino ↓, Iseppe M. J. ↑,

Highlights

Chances of winning

São Paulo
52.4%

Draw
28.8%

Atlético Mineiro
18.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.2%

29.1%

23.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.1%

30.3%

22.7%

São Paulo - Atlético Mineiro Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↓ (1.99)	3.27 ↑ (3.23)	5.02 ↑ (3.98)	5.7% (6.4%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

What is the prediction for São Paulo - Atlético Mineiro?

Users Predictions: São Paulo will win (21 of 24 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.27% – 100%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): São Paulo will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.

Preview Facts

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 0.
The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
São Paulo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, São Paulo is the team to beat.
There will not play in São Paulo: Jonathan Calleri (Knee Injury) Luiz Gustavo (Contusion) Oscar (Back Injury) Robert Arboleda (Muscle Injury) Ryan Francisco (Knee Injury) Wendell (Muscle Injury)
There will not play in Atlético MG: Alonso J. (Red Card) Cadu (Knee Injury) Caio Maia (Knee Injury) Cuello (Red Card) Hulk (Yellow Cards) Patrick Silva (Broken tailbone) Renzo Saravia (Muscle Injury)
There are questionable in Atlético MG: Alexsander (Injury) Gustavo Scarpa (Injury)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 3 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 17:23. (average 0.9:1.2).
Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:11. (average 1.3:1.2).

How many head-to-head matches has São Paulo won against Atlético Mineiro?

São Paulo has won 0 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Atlético Mineiro won against São Paulo?

Atlético Mineiro has won 4 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between São Paulo - Atlético Mineiro were as follows:

06.04.2025 Atlético Mineiro - São Paulo 0:0

23.11.2024 São Paulo - Atlético Mineiro 2:2

12.09.2024 Atlético Mineiro - São Paulo 0:0

28.08.2024 São Paulo - Atlético Mineiro 0:1

11.07.2024 Atlético Mineiro - São Paulo 2:1

Latest results of São Paulo

19.08.2025 São Paulo - Atlético Nacional 2:1 ✺

16.08.2025 Sport Recife - São Paulo 2:2 ✺

12.08.2025 Atlético Nacional - São Paulo 0:0 ✺

09.08.2025 São Paulo - Vitória Salvador 2:0 ✺

06.08.2025 Athletico Paranaense - São Paulo 2:0 ✺

Latest results of Atlético Mineiro

21.08.2025 Godoy Cruz - Atlético Mineiro 0:1 ✺

17.08.2025 Atlético Mineiro - Grêmio 1:3 ✺

14.08.2025 Atlético Mineiro - Godoy Cruz 2:1 ✺

10.08.2025 Vasco da Gama - Atlético Mineiro 1:1 ✺

06.08.2025 Atlético Mineiro - Flamengo 1:1 ✺

Brazilian Serie A Table

2026

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Bragantino	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
2	Internacional	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
3	Vasco	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
4	Gremio	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
5	Botafogo RJ	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
6	Santos	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
7	Sao Paulo	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
8	Coritiba	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
9	Cruzeiro	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
10	Vitoria	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
11	Atletico-MG	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
12	Fluminense	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
13	Flamengo RJ	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
14	Palmeiras	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
15	Athletico-PR	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
16	Bahia	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
17	Corinthians	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
18	Mirassol	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
19	Remo	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
20	Chapecoense-SC	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

      Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
      Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
      Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
      Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet