São Paulo vs Atlético Mineiro – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie A São Paulo - Atlético Mineiro
Result
2:0
24/08/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie A Betano - Round 21
  • Referee: Casagrande L. (Bra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
chinaChinaK-Ball
ecuadorEcuadorEl Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
kosovoKosovoArena Premium 1
mexicoMexicoFanatiz
portugalPortugalCanal 11
russiaRussiaMATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
serbiaSerbiaArena Premium 1
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomAmazon Prime Video, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
usaUsaFanatiz

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.640.10
Ball Possession
51%49%
Total shots
105
Shots on target
51
Big Chances
20
Corner Kicks
51
Passes
86% (403/469)86% (396/462)
Yellow Cards
12
Expected Goals (xG)
1.640.10
xG on target (xGOT)
2.360.00
Total shots
105
Shots on target
51
Shots off target
42
Blocked Shots
12
Shots inside the Box
81
Shots outside the Box
24
Hit the Woodwork
01
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
20
Corner Kicks
51
Touches in opposition box
276
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
02
Free Kicks
1417
Passes
86% (403/469)86% (396/462)
Long passes
38% (13/34)58% (31/53)
Passes in final third
75% (98/130)73% (71/97)
Crosses
38% (6/16)10% (1/10)
Expected assists (xA)
1.370.21
Throw-ins
1918
Fouls
2017
Tackles
81% (22/27)52% (12/23)
Duels won
6158
Clearances
1620
Interceptions
911
Errors leading to shot
11
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
13
xGOT faced
0.002.36
Goals prevented
0.000.36

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 23', 1 - 0, Pablo Maia , Bobadilla D. (A),
  • 37', Everson 🟨,
  • 43', Marcos Antonio , Rodriguinho ,
  • 45+1', Diaz E. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 46', Reinier , Alexsander ,
  • 60', Igor Gomes 🟨,
  • 64', Ferreira , Luciano ,
  • 68', Junior Santos , Biel ,
  • 68', Franco A. , Gustavo Scarpa ,
  • 75', Igor Gomes , Natanael ,
  • 79', Andre Silva , Tapia G. ,
  • 81', 2 - 0, Tapia G. , Soares C. (A),
  • 88', Gabriel Menino , Iseppe M. J. ,

Highlights

Chances of winning


São Paulo
52.4%
Draw
28.8%
Atlético Mineiro
18.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
47.2% 29.1% 23.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.1% 30.3% 22.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in São Paulo's performance.
  • Atlético Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-3.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (+4%)
  • São Paulo - Atlético Mineiro Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.82
    (1.99)
    3.27
    (3.23)
    5.02
    (3.98)
    5.7%
    (6.4%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
  • What is the prediction for São Paulo - Atlético Mineiro?
  • Users Predictions: São Paulo will win (21 of 24 users predict this - 87.5%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 74.27%100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): São Paulo will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 0.
    • The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
    • São Paulo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, São Paulo is the team to beat.
    • There will not play in São Paulo: Jonathan Calleri (Knee Injury) Luiz Gustavo (Contusion) Oscar (Back Injury) Robert Arboleda (Muscle Injury) Ryan Francisco (Knee Injury) Wendell (Muscle Injury)
    • There will not play in Atlético MG: Alonso J. (Red Card) Cadu (Knee Injury) Caio Maia (Knee Injury) Cuello (Red Card) Hulk (Yellow Cards) Patrick Silva (Broken tailbone) Renzo Saravia (Muscle Injury)
    • There are questionable in Atlético MG: Alexsander (Injury) Gustavo Scarpa (Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 3 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 17:23. (average 0.9:1.2).
    • Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:11. (average 1.3:1.2).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between São Paulo - Atlético Mineiro were as follows:
    06.04.2025 Atlético Mineiro - São Paulo 0:0
    23.11.2024 São Paulo - Atlético Mineiro 2:2
    12.09.2024 Atlético Mineiro - São Paulo 0:0
    28.08.2024 São Paulo - Atlético Mineiro 0:1
    11.07.2024 Atlético Mineiro - São Paulo 2:1
    Latest results of São Paulo
    Latest results of Atlético Mineiro
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Flamengo RJ25167250:123855
    2Palmeiras24164439:192052
    3Cruzeiro26156539:192051
    4Botafogo RJ27127837:231443
    5Mirassol251110442:251743
    6Bahia25117733:30340
    7Fluminense25115933:31238
    8Sao Paulo26108829:25438
    9Bragantino271061133:38-536
    10Gremio27891028:33-533
    11Internacional26881032:38-632
    12Ceara25871023:24-131
    13Vasco26861238:38030
    14Corinthians26791026:32-630
    15Atletico-MG25781022:29-729
    16Santos25771125:35-1028
    17Vitoria265101121:38-1725
    18Juventude25651420:46-2623
    19Fortaleza25561424:40-1621
    20Sport Recife24291318:37-1915

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet