Result
2:0
24/08/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 21
- Referee: Casagrande L. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
 Ecuador | El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
 Kosovo | Arena Premium 1 |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 Portugal | Canal 11 |
 Russia | MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
 Serbia | Arena Premium 1 |
 United-kingdom | Amazon Prime Video, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.64 | 0.10 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 51% | 49% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 5 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (403/469) | 86% (396/462) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.64 | 0.10 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.36 | 0.00 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 5 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 1 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 27 | 6 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 17 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (403/469) | 86% (396/462) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 38% (13/34) | 58% (31/53) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 75% (98/130) | 73% (71/97) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 38% (6/16) | 10% (1/10) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.37 | 0.21 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 19 | 18 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 20 | 17 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 81% (22/27) | 52% (12/23) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 61 | 58 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 16 | 20 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 11 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.00 | 2.36 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.00 | 0.36 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 23', 1 - 0, Pablo Maia ⚽, Bobadilla D. (A),
- 37', Everson 🟨,
- 43', Marcos Antonio ↓, Rodriguinho ↑,
- 45+1', Diaz E. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Reinier ↓, Alexsander ↑,
- 60', Igor Gomes 🟨,
- 64', Ferreira ↓, Luciano ↑,
- 68', Junior Santos ↓, Biel ↑,
- 68', Franco A. ↓, Gustavo Scarpa ↑,
- 75', Igor Gomes ↓, Natanael ↑,
- 79', Andre Silva ↓, Tapia G. ↑,
- 81', 2 - 0, Tapia G. ⚽, Soares C. (A),
- 88', Gabriel Menino ↓, Iseppe M. J. ↑,
Chances of winning
São Paulo
52.4% | Draw
28.8% | Atlético Mineiro
18.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in São Paulo's performance.Atlético Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-3.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (+4%)
São Paulo - Atlético Mineiro Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.82 ↓
(1.99) |
3.27 ↑
(3.23) |
5.02 ↑
(3.98) |
5.7%
(6.4%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for São Paulo - Atlético Mineiro?
Users Predictions:
São Paulo will win
(21 of 24 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.27% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): São Paulo will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 0.
- The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
- São Paulo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, São Paulo is the team to beat.
- There will not play in São Paulo: Jonathan Calleri
(Knee Injury)
Luiz Gustavo
(Contusion)
Oscar
(Back Injury)
Robert Arboleda
(Muscle Injury)
Ryan Francisco
(Knee Injury)
Wendell
(Muscle Injury)
- There will not play in Atlético MG: Alonso J.
(Red Card)
Cadu
(Knee Injury)
Caio Maia
(Knee Injury)
Cuello
(Red Card)
Hulk
(Yellow Cards)
Patrick Silva
(Broken tailbone)
Renzo Saravia
(Muscle Injury)
- There are questionable in Atlético MG: Alexsander
(Injury)
Gustavo Scarpa
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 3 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 17:23. (average 0.9:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:11. (average 1.3:1.2).
How many head-to-head matches has São Paulo won against Atlético Mineiro?
São Paulo has won 0 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Atlético Mineiro won against São Paulo?
Atlético Mineiro has won 4 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between São Paulo - Atlético Mineiro were as follows:
06.04.2025
Atlético Mineiro
-
São Paulo
0:0
23.11.2024
São Paulo
-
Atlético Mineiro
2:2
12.09.2024
Atlético Mineiro
-
São Paulo
0:0
28.08.2024
São Paulo
-
Atlético Mineiro
0:1
11.07.2024
Atlético Mineiro
-
São Paulo
2:1
Latest results of São Paulo
Latest results of Atlético Mineiro
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 28 | 19 | 4 | 5 | 53:26 | 27 | 61 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | 29 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 56:16 | 40 | 61 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 29 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 42:21 | 21 | 56 |
| 4 | Mirassol | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 52:31 | 21 | 55 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 40:34 | 6 | 49 |
| 6 | Botafogo RJ | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 39:26 | 13 | 46 |
| 7 | Fluminense | 29 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 36:35 | 1 | 44 |
| 8 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 33:33 | 0 | 41 |
| 9 | Vasco | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 46:41 | 5 | 39 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 32:35 | -3 | 39 |
| 11 | Bragantino | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 34:44 | -10 | 36 |
| 12 | Atletico-MG | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 27:32 | -5 | 36 |
| 13 | Gremio | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 30:37 | -7 | 36 |
| 14 | Ceara | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 27:28 | -1 | 35 |
| 15 | Internacional | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 35:43 | -8 | 35 |
| 16 | Santos | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 28:40 | -12 | 31 |
| 17 | Vitoria | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 27:44 | -17 | 31 |
| 18 | Fortaleza | 29 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 27:44 | -17 | 27 |
| 19 | Juventude | 29 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 23:53 | -30 | 26 |
| 20 | Sport Recife | 29 | 2 | 11 | 16 | 22:46 | -24 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
