Result
2:0
24/08/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 21
- Referee: Casagrande L. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
 Ecuador | El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
 Kosovo | Arena Premium 1 |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 Portugal | Canal 11 |
 Russia | MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
 Serbia | Arena Premium 1 |
 United-kingdom | Amazon Prime Video, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.64 | 0.10 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 51% | 49% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 5 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (403/469) | 86% (396/462) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.64 | 0.10 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.36 | 0.00 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 5 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 1 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 27 | 6 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 17 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (403/469) | 86% (396/462) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 38% (13/34) | 58% (31/53) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 75% (98/130) | 73% (71/97) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 38% (6/16) | 10% (1/10) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.37 | 0.21 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 19 | 18 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 20 | 17 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 81% (22/27) | 52% (12/23) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 61 | 58 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 16 | 20 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 11 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.00 | 2.36 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.00 | 0.36 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 23', 1 - 0, Pablo Maia ⚽, Bobadilla D. (A),
- 37', Everson 🟨,
- 43', Marcos Antonio ↓, Rodriguinho ↑,
- 45+1', Diaz E. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Reinier ↓, Alexsander ↑,
- 60', Igor Gomes 🟨,
- 64', Ferreira ↓, Luciano ↑,
- 68', Junior Santos ↓, Biel ↑,
- 68', Franco A. ↓, Gustavo Scarpa ↑,
- 75', Igor Gomes ↓, Natanael ↑,
- 79', Andre Silva ↓, Tapia G. ↑,
- 81', 2 - 0, Tapia G. ⚽, Soares C. (A),
- 88', Gabriel Menino ↓, Iseppe M. J. ↑,
Chances of winning
São Paulo
52.4% | Draw
28.8% | Atlético Mineiro
18.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in São Paulo's performance.Atlético Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-3.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (+4%)
São Paulo - Atlético Mineiro Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.82 ↓
(1.99) |
3.27 ↑
(3.23) |
5.02 ↑
(3.98) |
5.7%
(6.4%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for São Paulo - Atlético Mineiro?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -0.5 - Atlético MG (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH 0, 1st Half - São Paulo (1.39) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.75 - São Paulo (1.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
São Paulo will win
(21 of 24 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.27% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): São Paulo will win (12 of 14 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥇 Gold Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 17 high ROI users predict this event. São Paulo (votes: 14 - 82.4%). Atlético MG (votes: 1 - 5.9%). Tie (votes: 2 - 11.8%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 0.
- The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
- São Paulo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, São Paulo is the team to beat.
- There will not play in São Paulo: Jonathan Calleri
(Knee Injury)
Luiz Gustavo
(Contusion)
Oscar
(Back Injury)
Robert Arboleda
(Muscle Injury)
Ryan Francisco
(Knee Injury)
Wendell
(Muscle Injury)
- There will not play in Atlético MG: Alonso J.
(Red Card)
Cadu
(Knee Injury)
Caio Maia
(Knee Injury)
Cuello
(Red Card)
Hulk
(Yellow Cards)
Patrick Silva
(Broken tailbone)
Renzo Saravia
(Muscle Injury)
- There are questionable in Atlético MG: Alexsander
(Injury)
Gustavo Scarpa
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 3 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 17:23. (average 0.9:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:11. (average 1.3:1.2).
How many head-to-head matches has São Paulo won against Atlético Mineiro?
São Paulo has won 0 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Atlético Mineiro won against São Paulo?
Atlético Mineiro has won 4 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between São Paulo - Atlético Mineiro were as follows:
06.04.2025
Atlético Mineiro
-
São Paulo
0:0
23.11.2024
São Paulo
-
Atlético Mineiro
2:2
12.09.2024
Atlético Mineiro
-
São Paulo
0:0
28.08.2024
São Paulo
-
Atlético Mineiro
0:1
11.07.2024
Atlético Mineiro
-
São Paulo
2:1
Latest results of São Paulo
Latest results of Atlético Mineiro
Brazilian Serie A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12:5 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Sao Paulo | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6:2 | 4 | 10 |
| 3 | Corinthians | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5:3 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Bahia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5:4 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Athletico-PR | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Bragantino | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3:3 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Gremio | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8:8 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Chapecoense-SC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8:6 | 2 | 5 |
| 10 | Mirassol | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6:5 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Flamengo RJ | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:4 | 0 | 4 |
| 12 | Coritiba | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5:6 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Santos | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6:8 | -2 | 4 |
| 14 | Botafogo RJ | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7:6 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Vitoria | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:7 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | Remo | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6:8 | -2 | 3 |
| 17 | Atletico-MG | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6:8 | -2 | 2 |
| 18 | Internacional | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3:6 | -3 | 2 |
| 19 | Cruzeiro | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4:9 | -5 | 2 |
| 20 | Vasco | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3:6 | -3 | 1 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
