São Paulo vs Atlético Mineiro – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie A São Paulo - Atlético Mineiro
Result
2:0
24/08/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie A Betano - Round 21
  • Referee: Casagrande L. (Bra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
chinaChinaK-Ball
ecuadorEcuadorEl Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
kosovoKosovoArena Premium 1
mexicoMexicoFanatiz
portugalPortugalCanal 11
russiaRussiaMATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
serbiaSerbiaArena Premium 1
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomAmazon Prime Video, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
usaUsaFanatiz

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.640.10
Ball Possession
51%49%
Total shots
105
Shots on target
51
Big Chances
20
Corner Kicks
51
Passes
86% (403/469)86% (396/462)
Yellow Cards
12
Expected Goals (xG)
1.640.10
xG on target (xGOT)
2.360.00
Total shots
105
Shots on target
51
Shots off target
42
Blocked Shots
12
Shots inside the Box
81
Shots outside the Box
24
Hit the Woodwork
01
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
20
Corner Kicks
51
Touches in opposition box
276
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
02
Free Kicks
1417
Passes
86% (403/469)86% (396/462)
Long passes
38% (13/34)58% (31/53)
Passes in final third
75% (98/130)73% (71/97)
Crosses
38% (6/16)10% (1/10)
Expected assists (xA)
1.370.21
Throw-ins
1918
Fouls
2017
Tackles
81% (22/27)52% (12/23)
Duels won
6158
Clearances
1620
Interceptions
911
Errors leading to shot
11
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
13
xGOT faced
0.002.36
Goals prevented
0.000.36

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 23', 1 - 0, Pablo Maia , Bobadilla D. (A),
  • 37', Everson 🟨,
  • 43', Marcos Antonio , Rodriguinho ,
  • 45+1', Diaz E. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 46', Reinier , Alexsander ,
  • 60', Igor Gomes 🟨,
  • 64', Ferreira , Luciano ,
  • 68', Junior Santos , Biel ,
  • 68', Franco A. , Gustavo Scarpa ,
  • 75', Igor Gomes , Natanael ,
  • 79', Andre Silva , Tapia G. ,
  • 81', 2 - 0, Tapia G. , Soares C. (A),
  • 88', Gabriel Menino , Iseppe M. J. ,

Highlights

Chances of winning


São Paulo
52.4%
Draw
28.8%
Atlético Mineiro
18.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
47.2% 29.1% 23.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.1% 30.3% 22.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in São Paulo's performance.
  • Atlético Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-3.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (+4%)
  • São Paulo - Atlético Mineiro Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.82
    (1.99)
    3.27
    (3.23)
    5.02
    (3.98)
    5.7%
    (6.4%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
    What is the prediction for São Paulo - Atlético Mineiro?
  • Users Predictions: São Paulo will win (21 of 24 users predict this - 87.5%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 74.27%100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): São Paulo will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 0.
    • The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
    • São Paulo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, São Paulo is the team to beat.
    • There will not play in São Paulo: Jonathan Calleri (Knee Injury) Luiz Gustavo (Contusion) Oscar (Back Injury) Robert Arboleda (Muscle Injury) Ryan Francisco (Knee Injury) Wendell (Muscle Injury)
    • There will not play in Atlético MG: Alonso J. (Red Card) Cadu (Knee Injury) Caio Maia (Knee Injury) Cuello (Red Card) Hulk (Yellow Cards) Patrick Silva (Broken tailbone) Renzo Saravia (Muscle Injury)
    • There are questionable in Atlético MG: Alexsander (Injury) Gustavo Scarpa (Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 3 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 17:23. (average 0.9:1.2).
    • Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:11. (average 1.3:1.2).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between São Paulo - Atlético Mineiro were as follows:
    06.04.2025 Atlético Mineiro - São Paulo 0:0
    23.11.2024 São Paulo - Atlético Mineiro 2:2
    12.09.2024 Atlético Mineiro - São Paulo 0:0
    28.08.2024 São Paulo - Atlético Mineiro 0:1
    11.07.2024 Atlético Mineiro - São Paulo 2:1
    Latest results of São Paulo
    Latest results of Atlético Mineiro
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Palmeiras28194553:262761
    2Flamengo RJ29187456:164061
    3Cruzeiro29168542:212156
    4Mirassol301510552:312155
    5Bahia30147940:34649
    6Botafogo RJ29137939:261346
    7Fluminense291351136:35144
    8Sao Paulo301181133:33041
    9Vasco291161246:41539
    10Corinthians301091132:35-339
    11Bragantino291061334:44-1036
    12Atletico-MG29991127:32-536
    13Gremio29991130:37-736
    14Ceara29981227:28-135
    15Internacional30981335:43-835
    16Santos28871328:40-1231
    17Vitoria307101327:44-1731
    18Fortaleza29761627:44-1727
    19Juventude29751723:53-3026
    20Sport Recife292111622:46-2417

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet