Result
2:0
25/10/2025 at 20:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 30
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
 Ecuador | El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 Portugal | Canal 11 |
 Russia | MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.29 | 0.95 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 58% | 42% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (496/563) | 86% (349/408) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.29 | 0.95 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.41 | 0.61 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 12 | 4 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 27 | 10 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (496/563) | 86% (349/408) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 61% (35/57) | 59% (27/46) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 78% (124/158) | 71% (73/103) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 33% (4/12) | 45% (5/11) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.35 | 0.74 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 20 | 19 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 70% (16/23) | 69% (9/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 48 | 37 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 20 | 18 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 2 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.61 | 1.41 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.61 | -0.59 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 0)
- 7', 1 - 0, Luciano ⚽, Maik (A),
- 27', Maik 🟨,
- 31', David Duarte 🟨,
- 36', Ademir 🟨,
- 41', 2 - 0, Bobadilla D. ⚽, Luciano (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Maik ↓, Mailton ↑,
- 46', Tiago ↓, Sanabria M. ↑,
- 46', Iago Borduchi ↓, Luciano Juba ↑,
- 46', Arias S. ↓, Gilberto ↑,
- 54', Luciano 🟨,
- 60', Gilberto ↓, Erick ↑,
- 60', Sanabria M. ↓, Kayky ↑,
- 66', Lucas Moura ↓, Tapia G. ↑,
- 78', Pablo Maia ↓, Luiz Gustavo ↑,
- 79', Luciano ↓, Ferreira ↑,
- 87', Bobadilla D. ↓, Felipe Negrucci ↑,
- 90', Rodrigo 🟨,
- 90+8', Ramos S. 🟨,
Chances of winning
São Paulo
47.5% | Draw
28.5% | Bahia
24% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+1.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (-0.5%)
São Paulo - Bahia Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.01 ↑
(2) |
3.33 ↑
(3.25) |
3.97 ↑
(3.8) |
5.1%
(7.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for São Paulo - Bahia?
Users Predictions:
13 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%). Bahia will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for São Paulo: 44.1% – 94.3%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. São Paulo (votes: 2 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 3.
- São Paulo is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Bahia's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- São Paulo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, São Paulo is considered a favorite.
- There will not play in São Paulo: Andre Silva
(Knee Injury)
Dinenno J.
(Inactive)
Ferraresi N.
(Yellow Cards)
Jonathan Calleri
(Knee Injury)
Luan Silva
(Muscle Injury)
Oscar
(Calf Injury)
Ryan Francisco
(Knee Injury)
Soares C.
(Toe Injury)
Toloi R.
(Hamstring Injury)
Wendell
(Injury)
- There will not play in Bahia: Caio Alexandre
(Hamstring Injury)
Erick Pulga
(Hamstring Injury)
Everton Ribeiro
(Inactive)
Joao Paulo
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 9 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 23:14. (average 1.2:0.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:5. (average 1:0.6).
How many head-to-head matches has São Paulo won against Bahia?
São Paulo has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Bahia won against São Paulo?
Bahia has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between São Paulo - Bahia were as follows:
31.05.2025
Bahia
-
São Paulo
2:1
05.11.2024
Bahia
-
São Paulo
0:3
30.06.2024
São Paulo
-
Bahia
3:1
29.11.2023
Bahia
-
São Paulo
0:1
30.07.2023
São Paulo
-
Bahia
0:0
Latest results of São Paulo
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 28 | 19 | 4 | 5 | 53:26 | 27 | 61 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | 29 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 56:16 | 40 | 61 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 29 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 42:21 | 21 | 56 |
| 4 | Mirassol | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 52:31 | 21 | 55 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 40:34 | 6 | 49 |
| 6 | Botafogo RJ | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 39:26 | 13 | 46 |
| 7 | Fluminense | 29 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 36:35 | 1 | 44 |
| 8 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 33:33 | 0 | 41 |
| 9 | Vasco | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 46:41 | 5 | 39 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 32:35 | -3 | 39 |
| 11 | Bragantino | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 34:44 | -10 | 36 |
| 12 | Atletico-MG | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 27:32 | -5 | 36 |
| 13 | Gremio | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 30:37 | -7 | 36 |
| 14 | Ceara | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 27:28 | -1 | 35 |
| 15 | Internacional | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 35:43 | -8 | 35 |
| 16 | Santos | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 28:40 | -12 | 31 |
| 17 | Vitoria | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 27:44 | -17 | 31 |
| 18 | Fortaleza | 29 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 27:44 | -17 | 27 |
| 19 | Juventude | 29 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 23:53 | -30 | 26 |
| 20 | Sport Recife | 29 | 2 | 11 | 16 | 22:46 | -24 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
