São Paulo vs Bahia – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie A
Result
2:0
25/10/2025 at 20:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie A Betano - Round 30
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
chinaChinaK-Ball
ecuadorEcuadorEl Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
mexicoMexicoFanatiz
portugalPortugalCanal 11
russiaRussiaMATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
usaUsaFanatiz

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.290.95
Ball Possession
58%42%
Total shots
149
Shots on target
53
Big Chances
31
Corner Kicks
54
Passes
88% (496/563)86% (349/408)
Yellow Cards
24
Expected Goals (xG)
1.290.95
xG on target (xGOT)
1.410.61
Total shots
149
Shots on target
53
Shots off target
52
Blocked Shots
44
Shots inside the Box
124
Shots outside the Box
25
Hit the Woodwork
10
Big Chances
31
Corner Kicks
54
Touches in opposition box
2710
Accurate through passes
20
Offsides
21
Free Kicks
1010
Passes
88% (496/563)86% (349/408)
Long passes
61% (35/57)59% (27/46)
Passes in final third
78% (124/158)71% (73/103)
Crosses
33% (4/12)45% (5/11)
Expected assists (xA)
1.350.74
Throw-ins
2019
Fouls
1010
Tackles
70% (16/23)69% (9/13)
Duels won
4837
Clearances
2018
Interceptions
210
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
33
xGOT faced
0.611.41
Goals prevented
0.61-0.59

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 0)
  • 7', 1 - 0, Luciano ⚽, Maik (A),
  • 27', Maik 🟨,
  • 31', David Duarte 🟨,
  • 36', Ademir 🟨,
  • 41', 2 - 0, Bobadilla D. ⚽, Luciano (A),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 46', Maik ↓, Mailton ↑,
  • 46', Tiago ↓, Sanabria M. ↑,
  • 46', Iago Borduchi ↓, Luciano Juba ↑,
  • 46', Arias S. ↓, Gilberto ↑,
  • 54', Luciano 🟨,
  • 60', Gilberto ↓, Erick ↑,
  • 60', Sanabria M. ↓, Kayky ↑,
  • 66', Lucas Moura ↓, Tapia G. ↑,
  • 78', Pablo Maia ↓, Luiz Gustavo ↑,
  • 79', Luciano ↓, Ferreira ↑,
  • 87', Bobadilla D. ↓, Felipe Negrucci ↑,
  • 90', Rodrigo 🟨,
  • 90+8', Ramos S. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


São Paulo
47.5%		Draw
28.5%		Bahia
24%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
46.7% 28.7% 24.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.8% 27.5% 23.5%

São Paulo - Bahia Odds

1 X 2 Marga
Avarage Now
(Initially)		 2.01 ↑
(2)		 3.33 ↑
(3.25)		 3.97 ↑
(3.8)		 5.1%
(7.1%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for São Paulo - Bahia?
  • Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%). Bahia will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for São Paulo: 44.1% – 94.3%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. São Paulo (votes: 2 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 3.
    • São Paulo is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Bahia's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • São Paulo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, São Paulo is considered a favorite.
    • There will not play in São Paulo: Andre Silva (Knee Injury) Dinenno J. (Inactive) Ferraresi N. (Yellow Cards) Jonathan Calleri (Knee Injury) Luan Silva (Muscle Injury) Oscar (Calf Injury) Ryan Francisco (Knee Injury) Soares C. (Toe Injury) Toloi R. (Hamstring Injury) Wendell (Injury)
    • There will not play in Bahia: Caio Alexandre (Hamstring Injury) Erick Pulga (Hamstring Injury) Everton Ribeiro (Inactive) Joao Paulo (Knee Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 9 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 23:14. (average 1.2:0.7).
    • Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:5. (average 1:0.6).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between São Paulo - Bahia were as follows:
    31.05.2025 Bahia - São Paulo 2:1
    05.11.2024 Bahia - São Paulo 0:3
    30.06.2024 São Paulo - Bahia 3:1
    29.11.2023 Bahia - São Paulo 0:1
    30.07.2023 São Paulo - Bahia 0:0
    Latest results of São Paulo
    19.10.2025 Mirassol - São Paulo 3:0 ✺
    16.10.2025 Grêmio - São Paulo 2:0 ✺
    05.10.2025 São Paulo - Palmeiras 2:3 ✺
    02.10.2025 Fortaleza - São Paulo 0:2 ✺
    29.09.2025 São Paulo - Ceará 0:1 ✺
    Latest results of Bahia
    22.10.2025 Bahia - Internacional RS 1:0 ✺
    19.10.2025 Bahia - Grêmio 4:0 ✺
    16.10.2025 Vitória Salvador - Bahia 2:1 ✺
    05.10.2025 Bahia - Flamengo 1:0 ✺
    01.10.2025 Botafogo RJ - Bahia 2:1 ✺
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2026
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Bragantino00000:000
    2Internacional00000:000
    3Vasco00000:000
    4Gremio00000:000
    5Botafogo RJ00000:000
    6Santos00000:000
    7Sao Paulo00000:000
    8Coritiba00000:000
    9Cruzeiro00000:000
    10Vitoria00000:000
    11Atletico-MG00000:000
    12Fluminense00000:000
    13Flamengo RJ00000:000
    14Palmeiras00000:000
    15Athletico-PR00000:000
    16Bahia00000:000
    17Corinthians00000:000
    18Mirassol00000:000
    19Remo00000:000
    20Chapecoense-SC00000:000

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet

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