Result
1:0
25/04/2026 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 13
- Referee: Claus R. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 1 |
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Ecuador | Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
 Kosovo | Arena Premium 2 |
 Russia | MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
 Serbia | Arena Premium 2 |
 Ukraine | Maincast Sport |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.02 | 1.09 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 53% | 47% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (355/419) | 80% (304/382) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.02 | 1.09 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.62 | 0.04 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 11 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 4 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 26 | 15 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (355/419) | 80% (304/382) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 60% (33/55) | 57% (39/69) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 78% (112/143) | 64% (68/106) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 4% (1/27) | 15% (2/13) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.13 | 0.85 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 22 | 23 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 50% (9/18) | 53% (9/17) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 46 | 51 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 28 | 34 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.04 | 0.62 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.04 | -0.38 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 41', Danielzinho 🟨,
- 45+4', Jose Aldo 🟨,
- 45+5', Nathan Fogaca 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 65', Jose Aldo ↓, Neto Moura ↑,
- 65', Shaylon ↓, Denilson ↑,
- 66', Cauly ↓, Lucca Marques ↑,
- 76', Bobadilla D. ↓, Luan Silva ↑,
- 76', 1 - 0, Luciano ⚽, Wendell (A),
- 81', Eduardo ↓, Everton Galdino ↑,
- 81', Lucas Oliveira ↓, Tiquinho Soares ↑,
- 84', Alesson ↓, Edson Carioca ↑,
- 88', Luciano ↓, Matheus Doria ↑,
Chances of winning
São Paulo
50.6% | Draw
26% | Mirassol
23.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)Mirassol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+5.6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for São Paulo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mirassol than the current prediction. (-4.6%)
São Paulo - Mirassol Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.87 ↑
(1.68) |
3.64 ↑
(3.57) |
4.09 ↓
(4.77) |
5.3%
(8.4%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for São Paulo - Mirassol?
Users Predictions:
10 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Mirassol will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for São Paulo: 41.6% – 98.4%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 1.
- The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
- Mirassol may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, São Paulo is the team to beat.
- There will not play in São Paulo: Franco A.
(Yellow Cards)
Lucas Moura
(Broken rib)
Marcos Antonio
(Injury)
Pablo Maia
(Inactive)
Ryan Francisco
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Mirassol: Igor Carius
(Hamstring Injury)
Negueba
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in São Paulo: Diaz E.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Mirassol: Yuri Lara
(Injury)
- In the last 13 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 25:17. (average 1.9:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 18:9. (average 2.6:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has São Paulo won against Mirassol?
São Paulo has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Mirassol won against São Paulo?
Mirassol has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between São Paulo - Mirassol were as follows:
11.01.2026
Mirassol
-
São Paulo
3:0
19.10.2025
Mirassol
-
São Paulo
3:0
24.05.2025
São Paulo
-
Mirassol
0:2
05.02.2025
São Paulo
-
Mirassol
4:1
23.01.2024
Mirassol
-
São Paulo
1:1
Latest results of São Paulo
Latest results of Mirassol
Brazilian Serie A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 24:11 | 13 | 33 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 24:10 | 14 | 26 |
| 3 | Fluminense | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 23:16 | 7 | 26 |
| 4 | Sao Paulo | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 17:11 | 6 | 23 |
| 5 | Athletico-PR | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 20:15 | 5 | 23 |
| 6 | Bahia | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 17:14 | 3 | 21 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 16:17 | -1 | 19 |
| 8 | Vitoria | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 16:18 | -2 | 18 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 15:15 | 0 | 17 |
| 10 | Botafogo RJ | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 25:26 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 | Atletico-MG | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 17:20 | -3 | 17 |
| 12 | Gremio | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 15:16 | -1 | 17 |
| 13 | Vasco | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 18:19 | -1 | 16 |
| 14 | Cruzeiro | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 18:24 | -6 | 16 |
| 15 | Corinthians | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 9:11 | -2 | 15 |
| 16 | Santos | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 19:22 | -3 | 15 |
| 17 | Internacional | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 12:14 | -2 | 14 |
| 18 | Remo | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 15:24 | -9 | 11 |
| 19 | Mirassol | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13:18 | -5 | 9 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-SC | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 12:24 | -12 | 8 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B
