São Paulo vs Ceará – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie A São Paulo - Ceará
Result
0:1
29/09/2025 at 19:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie A Betano - Round 25
  • Referee: Arleu B. (Bra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
chinaChinaK-Ball
ecuadorEcuadorEl Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
mexicoMexicoFanatiz
usaUsaFanatiz

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.790.70
Ball Possession
61%39%
Total shots
157
Shots on target
26
Big Chances
01
Corner Kicks
73
Passes
87% (436/504)79% (265/335)
Yellow Cards
23
Expected Goals (xG)
0.790.70
xG on target (xGOT)
0.161.27
Total shots
157
Shots on target
26
Shots off target
90
Blocked Shots
41
Shots inside the Box
83
Shots outside the Box
74
Hit the Woodwork
20
Big Chances
01
Corner Kicks
73
Touches in opposition box
2416
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
00
Free Kicks
1814
Passes
87% (436/504)79% (265/335)
Long passes
35% (8/23)45% (28/62)
Passes in final third
77% (139/181)69% (56/81)
Crosses
20% (7/35)43% (6/14)
Expected assists (xA)
0.990.43
Throw-ins
2112
Fouls
1418
Tackles
71% (12/17)67% (8/12)
Duels won
5843
Clearances
1341
Interceptions
109
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
52
xGOT faced
1.270.16
Goals prevented
0.270.16

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 31', Toloi R. , Sabino ,
  • 37', Diego 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 46', Franco A. , Lucas Moura ,
  • 46', Paulo Baya , Pedro Henrique ,
  • 52', Lourenco 🟨,
  • 56', 0 - 1, Pedro Henrique ,
  • 63', Ferreira , Lucca Marques ,
  • 70', Rodriguinho , Mailton ,
  • 70', Soares C. , Dinenno J. ,
  • 72', Diego , Vinicius Zanocelo ,
  • 72', Lourenco , Fernando Sobral ,
  • 82', Robert Arboleda 🟨,
  • 85', Galeano A. , Guilherme Luiz ,
  • 87', Guilherme Luiz 🟨,
  • 90', Pedro Raul , Vina ,
  • 90+4', Dinenno J. 🟨,

Chances of winning


São Paulo
50.9%
Draw
30%
Ceará
19.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
58.3% 25.8% 16%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.2% 26.6% 15.5%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that São Paulo's form might have worsened.
  • Ceará has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+9.3%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for São Paulo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (-3.6%)
  • São Paulo - Ceará Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.03
    (1.63)
    3.3
    (3.69)
    5.04
    (5.95)
    -0.6%
    (5.3%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
    What is the prediction for São Paulo - Ceará?
  • Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 13 - 76.5%). Ceará will win (votes: 2 - 11.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 11.8%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for São Paulo: 56.3%96.7%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH -0.5 - Ceará (votes: 3 - 100%).
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): São Paulo will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 13).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 3.
    • The current form of both teams is below expectations.
    • São Paulo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, São Paulo is considered a favorite.
    • There will not play in São Paulo: Andre Silva (Knee Injury) Jonathan Calleri (Knee Injury) Ryan Francisco (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Ceará: Aylon (Yellow Cards) Lucas Mugni (Thigh Injury)
    • There are questionable in São Paulo: Luan Silva (Inactive) Oscar (Back Injury) Soares C. (Illness)
    • There are questionable in Ceará: Luiz Otavio (Knee Injury)
    • In the last 15 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 6 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 19:12. (average 1.3:0.8).
    • Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:6. (average 1.1:0.9).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between São Paulo - Ceará were as follows:
    26.04.2025 Ceará - São Paulo 1:1
    18.09.2022 Ceará - São Paulo 0:2
    Latest results of São Paulo
    25.09.2025 São Paulo - LDU Quito 0:1
    21.09.2025 Santos - São Paulo 1:0
    18.09.2025 LDU Quito - São Paulo 2:0
    14.09.2025 São Paulo - Botafogo RJ 1:0
    30.08.2025 Cruzeiro - São Paulo 1:0
    Latest results of Ceará
    20.09.2025 Ceará - Bahia 1:1
    14.09.2025 Vasco da Gama - Ceará 2:2
    30.08.2025 Ceará - Juventude 0:1
    23.08.2025 Grêmio - Ceará 0:0
    20.08.2025 Bahia - Ceará 1:0
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Palmeiras28194553:262761
    2Flamengo RJ28187356:154161
    3Cruzeiro29168542:212156
    4Mirassol301510552:312155
    5Bahia30147940:34649
    6Botafogo RJ29137939:261346
    7Fluminense291351136:35144
    8Sao Paulo301181133:33041
    9Vasco291161246:41539
    10Corinthians301091132:35-339
    11Bragantino291061334:44-1036
    12Atletico-MG29991127:32-536
    13Gremio29991130:37-736
    14Ceara29981227:28-135
    15Internacional30981335:43-835
    16Santos28871328:40-1231
    17Vitoria307101327:44-1731
    18Juventude29751723:53-3026
    19Fortaleza28661626:44-1824
    20Sport Recife292111622:46-2417

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet