Result
0:1
29/09/2025 at 19:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 25
- Referee: Arleu B. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
 Ecuador | El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.79 | 0.70 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 61% | 39% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (436/504) | 79% (265/335) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.79 | 0.70 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.16 | 1.27 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 9 | 0 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 24 | 16 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 18 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (436/504) | 79% (265/335) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 35% (8/23) | 45% (28/62) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 77% (139/181) | 69% (56/81) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 20% (7/35) | 43% (6/14) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.99 | 0.43 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 21 | 12 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 18 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 71% (12/17) | 67% (8/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 58 | 43 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 13 | 41 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.27 | 0.16 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.27 | 0.16 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 31', Toloi R. ↓, Sabino ↑,
- 37', Diego 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Franco A. ↓, Lucas Moura ↑,
- 46', Paulo Baya ↓, Pedro Henrique ↑,
- 52', Lourenco 🟨,
- 56', 0 - 1, Pedro Henrique ⚽,
- 63', Ferreira ↓, Lucca Marques ↑,
- 70', Rodriguinho ↓, Mailton ↑,
- 70', Soares C. ↓, Dinenno J. ↑,
- 72', Diego ↓, Vinicius Zanocelo ↑,
- 72', Lourenco ↓, Fernando Sobral ↑,
- 82', Robert Arboleda 🟨,
- 85', Galeano A. ↓, Guilherme Luiz ↑,
- 87', Guilherme Luiz 🟨,
- 90', Pedro Raul ↓, Vina ↑,
- 90+4', Dinenno J. 🟨,
Chances of winning
São Paulo
50.9% | Draw
30% | Ceará
19.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that São Paulo's form might have worsened.Ceará has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+9.3%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for São Paulo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (-3.6%)
São Paulo - Ceará Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.03 ↑
(1.63) |
3.3 ↓
(3.69) |
5.04 ↓
(5.95) |
-0.6%
(5.3%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for São Paulo - Ceará?
Users Predictions:
17 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 13 - 76.5%). Ceará will win (votes: 2 - 11.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 11.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for São Paulo: 56.3% – 96.7%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -0.5 - Ceará (votes: 3 - 100%).
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): São Paulo will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 13).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 3.
- The current form of both teams is below expectations.
- São Paulo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, São Paulo is considered a favorite.
- There will not play in São Paulo: Andre Silva
(Knee Injury)
Jonathan Calleri
(Knee Injury)
Ryan Francisco
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Ceará: Aylon
(Yellow Cards)
Lucas Mugni
(Thigh Injury)
- There are questionable in São Paulo: Luan Silva
(Inactive)
Oscar
(Back Injury)
Soares C.
(Illness)
- There are questionable in Ceará: Luiz Otavio
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 15 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 6 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 19:12. (average 1.3:0.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:6. (average 1.1:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has São Paulo won against Ceará?
São Paulo has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Ceará won against São Paulo?
Ceará has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between São Paulo - Ceará were as follows:
26.04.2025
Ceará
-
São Paulo
1:1
18.09.2022
Ceará
-
São Paulo
0:2
Latest results of São Paulo
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Flamengo RJ | 25 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 50:12 | 38 | 55 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 24 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 39:19 | 20 | 52 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 39:19 | 20 | 51 |
| 4 | Botafogo RJ | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 37:21 | 16 | 43 |
| 5 | Mirassol | 25 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 42:25 | 17 | 43 |
| 6 | Bahia | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 33:30 | 3 | 40 |
| 7 | Sao Paulo | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 29:25 | 4 | 38 |
| 8 | Fluminense | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 30:31 | -1 | 35 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 32:38 | -6 | 33 |
| 10 | Gremio | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 28:32 | -4 | 33 |
| 11 | Ceara | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 23:24 | -1 | 31 |
| 12 | Vasco | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 38:38 | 0 | 30 |
| 13 | Corinthians | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 26:32 | -6 | 30 |
| 14 | Atletico-MG | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 22:26 | -4 | 29 |
| 15 | Internacional | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 30:38 | -8 | 29 |
| 16 | Santos | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 25:35 | -10 | 28 |
| 17 | Vitoria | 26 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 21:38 | -17 | 25 |
| 18 | Juventude | 25 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 20:46 | -26 | 23 |
| 19 | Fortaleza | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 24:40 | -16 | 21 |
| 20 | Sport Recife | 24 | 2 | 9 | 13 | 18:37 | -19 | 15 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
