Result
1:1
26/04/2025 at 17:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 6
- Referee: Daronco A. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.54 | 0.79 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 40% | 60% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (237/293) | 88% (388/441) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.54 | 0.79 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.32 | 1.38 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 1 | 6 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 2 | 8 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 16 | 19 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 19 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (237/293) | 88% (388/441) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 46% (16/35) | 68% (30/44) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 63% (37/59) | 79% (123/155) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 29% (4/14) | 18% (3/17) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.83 | 1.14 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 17 | 22 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 19 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 74% (20/27) | 67% (12/18) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 62 | 45 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 38 | 17 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.38 | 0.32 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.38 | -0.68 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 4', 1 - 0, Pedro Henrique ⚽, Matheus Bahia (A),
- 31', Diaz E. 🟨,
- 44', 1 - 1, Ryan Francisco ⚽, Lucas Ferreira (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Ferreira ↓, Soares C. ↑,
- 46', Willian Machado 🟨,
- 53', Pedro Henrique 🟨,
- 60', Ryan Francisco ↓, Andre Silva ↑,
- 60', Lucas Mugni ↓, Matheus Araujo ↑,
- 60', Pedro Henrique ↓, Guilherme Luiz ↑,
- 67', Igor Vinicius 🟨,
- 75', Igor Vinicius ↓, Rodriguinho ↑,
- 75', Alisson ↓, Marcos Antonio ↑,
- 76', Marcos Antonio 🟨,
- 80', Matheus Bahia ↓, Nicolas ↑,
- 84', Soares C. 🟨,
- 85', Fernando Sobral ↓, Lourenco ↑,
- 85', Galeano A. ↓, Lele ↑,
- 88', Bobadilla D. 🟨,
- 90', Luciano ↓, Franco A. ↑,
Chances of winning
Ceará
40.2% | Draw
33.4% | São Paulo
26.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ceará has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (+0.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+3.9%)
Ceará - São Paulo Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.37 ↓
(2.43) |
2.85 ↓
(3.19) |
3.57 ↑
(3.01) |
5.2%
(5.7%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 1.75
What is the prediction for Ceará - São Paulo?
Users Predictions:
23 users predict this event. Ceará will win (votes: 13 - 56.5%). São Paulo will win (votes: 1 - 4.3%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 39.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ceará: 36.2% – 76.8%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -0.25 - Ceará (votes: 3 - 100%).
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Ceará will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- During this match we will see a game between leader and a team of mid-table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: ) and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
- Last 5 head-to-head matches Ceará won 0.
- Recent matches Ceará is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
- São Paulo is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
- Ceará could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
- Ceará will have a small advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Ceará: Bruno Tubarao
(Thigh Injury)
Fabiano
(Yellow Cards)
Nicolas
(Muscle Injury)
Richardson
(Heel Injury)
- There will not play in São Paulo: Jonathan Calleri
(Knee Injury)
Lucas Moura
(Knee Injury)
Luiz Gustavo
(Contusion)
Matheus Alves
(Yellow Cards)
Oscar
(Hamstring Injury)
Pablo Maia
(Ankle Injury)
Robert Arboleda
(Inactive)
Young
(Foot Injury)
- There are questionable in Ceará: Aylon
(Injury)
Bruno Ferreira
(Injury)
Fernandinho
(Shoulder Injury)
Luiz Otavio
(Knee Injury)
Richard
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
- Last 14 head-to-head matches Ceará won 1 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 11:18 (average 0.8:1.3).
- Including matches at home between the teams Ceará won 0 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 5:10 (average 0.7:1.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Ceará won against São Paulo?
Ceará has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has São Paulo won against Ceará?
São Paulo has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Ceará - São Paulo were as follows:
18.09.2022
Ceará
-
São Paulo
0:2
Latest results of São Paulo
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Flamengo RJ | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 36:9 | 27 | 43 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 24:15 | 9 | 39 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 32:14 | 18 | 38 |
| 4 | Bahia | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 25:17 | 8 | 33 |
| 5 | Botafogo RJ | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 23:11 | 12 | 29 |
| 6 | Mirassol | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 29:19 | 10 | 29 |
| 7 | Sao Paulo | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 24:22 | 2 | 29 |
| 8 | Fluminense | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 23:24 | -1 | 27 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 22:26 | -4 | 27 |
| 10 | Ceara | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 19:19 | 0 | 25 |
| 11 | Atletico-MG | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 20:21 | -1 | 24 |
| 12 | Internacional | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 22:26 | -4 | 24 |
| 13 | Gremio | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 19:25 | -6 | 23 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 19:25 | -6 | 22 |
| 15 | Santos | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 20:29 | -9 | 21 |
| 16 | Vasco | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 25:26 | -1 | 19 |
| 17 | Vitoria | 20 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 18:24 | -6 | 19 |
| 18 | Juventude | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 17:38 | -21 | 18 |
| 19 | Fortaleza | 19 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 19:31 | -12 | 15 |
| 20 | Sport Recife | 18 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 12:27 | -15 | 10 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
