Result
0:2
02/10/2025 at 18:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 26
- Referee: Daronco A. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Caze TV, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Record, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
 Ecuador | El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 Portugal | Canal 11 |
 Russia | MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
 Suriname | SCCN |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.99 | 1.43 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 74% | 26% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 25 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (551/628) | 65% (142/219) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.99 | 1.43 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.39 | 1.61 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 25 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 9 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 10 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 14 | 6 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 11 | 2 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 36 | 15 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (551/628) | 65% (142/219) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 67% (26/39) | 30% (16/54) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 75% (164/218) | 53% (25/47) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 16% (6/38) | 27% (3/11) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.28 | 1.01 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 26 | 8 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 9 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 71% (10/14) | 43% (3/7) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 47 | 40 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 11 | 50 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 6 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.61 | 0.39 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.39 | 0.39 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 11', 0 - 1, Tapia G. ⚽,
- 22', Rigoni E. 🟥,
- 45+4', Avila G. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Rodriguinho ↓, Diaz E. ↑,
- 46', Herrera J. ↓, Breno Lopes ↑,
- 46', Pereira M. ↓, Guzman Y. ↑,
- 59', Lucas Sasha 🟨,
- 62', Yago Pikachu ↓, Pochettino T. ↑,
- 62', Lucas Crispim ↓, Bareiro A. ↑,
- 68', Soares C. ↓, Mailton ↑,
- 73', Deyverson ↓, Marinho ↑,
- 77', Tapia G. ↓, Luciano ↑,
- 78', Wendell ↓, Alisson ↑,
- 85', 0 - 2, Luciano ⚽, Diaz E. (A),
- 87', Pochettino T. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Fortaleza
33.8% | Draw
33% | São Paulo
33.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+1.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+1.3%)
Fortaleza - São Paulo Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.87 ↑
(2.7) |
2.9 ↓
(3.1) |
2.86 ↑
(2.7) |
4.3%
(6.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Fortaleza - São Paulo?
Users Predictions:
8 users predict this event. Fortaleza will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). São Paulo will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fortaleza: 4% – 71%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Fortaleza (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 3.
- Recent performances by Fortaleza have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- São Paulo is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Fortaleza may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
- There will not play in Fortaleza: Bruno Pacheco
(Yellow Cards)
Mancuso E.
(Yellow Cards)
Tinga
(Groin Injury)
- There will not play in São Paulo: Andre Silva
(Knee Injury)
Ferraresi N.
(Inactive)
Jonathan Calleri
(Knee Injury)
Luan Silva
(Inactive)
Marcos Antonio
(Inactive)
Oscar
(Back Injury)
Robert Arboleda
(Yellow Cards)
Ryan Francisco
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Fortaleza: Allanzinho
(Inactive)
Benevenuto
(Hamstring Injury)
Moises
(Thigh Injury)
Pablo Roberto
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in São Paulo: Toloi R.
(Injury)
- In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 22:20. (average 1.3:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Fortaleza won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:10. (average 1.4:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Fortaleza won against São Paulo?
Fortaleza has won 4 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has São Paulo won against Fortaleza?
São Paulo has won 0 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Fortaleza - São Paulo were as follows:
02.05.2025
São Paulo
-
Fortaleza
0:0
27.07.2024
Fortaleza
-
São Paulo
1:0
13.04.2024
São Paulo
-
Fortaleza
1:2
20.09.2023
São Paulo
-
Fortaleza
1:2
11.05.2023
Fortaleza
-
São Paulo
0:0
Latest results of Fortaleza
Latest results of São Paulo
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 28 | 19 | 4 | 5 | 53:26 | 27 | 61 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | 28 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 56:15 | 41 | 61 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 29 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 42:21 | 21 | 56 |
| 4 | Mirassol | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 52:31 | 21 | 55 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 40:34 | 6 | 49 |
| 6 | Botafogo RJ | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 39:26 | 13 | 46 |
| 7 | Fluminense | 29 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 36:35 | 1 | 44 |
| 8 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 33:33 | 0 | 41 |
| 9 | Vasco | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 46:41 | 5 | 39 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 32:35 | -3 | 39 |
| 11 | Bragantino | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 34:44 | -10 | 36 |
| 12 | Atletico-MG | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 27:32 | -5 | 36 |
| 13 | Gremio | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 30:37 | -7 | 36 |
| 14 | Ceara | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 27:28 | -1 | 35 |
| 15 | Internacional | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 35:43 | -8 | 35 |
| 16 | Santos | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 28:40 | -12 | 31 |
| 17 | Vitoria | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 27:44 | -17 | 31 |
| 18 | Juventude | 29 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 23:53 | -30 | 26 |
| 19 | Fortaleza | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 26:44 | -18 | 24 |
| 20 | Sport Recife | 29 | 2 | 11 | 16 | 22:46 | -24 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
