Fortaleza vs São Paulo – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie A Fortaleza - São Paulo
Result
0:2
02/10/2025 at 18:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie A Betano - Round 26
  • Referee: Daronco A. (Bra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Caze TV, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Record, Vivo Play, Zapping
chinaChinaK-Ball
ecuadorEcuadorEl Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
mexicoMexicoFanatiz
portugalPortugalCanal 11
russiaRussiaMATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
surinameSurinameSCCN
usaUsaFanatiz

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.991.43
Ball Possession
74%26%
Total shots
258
Shots on target
63
Big Chances
12
Corner Kicks
86
Passes
88% (551/628)65% (142/219)
Yellow Cards
30
Red Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
0.991.43
xG on target (xGOT)
0.391.61
Total shots
258
Shots on target
63
Shots off target
94
Blocked Shots
101
Shots inside the Box
146
Shots outside the Box
112
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
12
Corner Kicks
86
Touches in opposition box
3615
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
00
Free Kicks
912
Passes
88% (551/628)65% (142/219)
Long passes
67% (26/39)30% (16/54)
Passes in final third
75% (164/218)53% (25/47)
Crosses
16% (6/38)27% (3/11)
Expected assists (xA)
1.281.01
Throw-ins
268
Fouls
129
Tackles
71% (10/14)43% (3/7)
Duels won
4740
Clearances
1150
Interceptions
910
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
16
xGOT faced
1.610.39
Goals prevented
-0.390.39

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 11', 0 - 1, Tapia G. ,
  • 22', Rigoni E. 🟥,
  • 45+4', Avila G. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 46', Rodriguinho , Diaz E. ,
  • 46', Herrera J. , Breno Lopes ,
  • 46', Pereira M. , Guzman Y. ,
  • 59', Lucas Sasha 🟨,
  • 62', Yago Pikachu , Pochettino T. ,
  • 62', Lucas Crispim , Bareiro A. ,
  • 68', Soares C. , Mailton ,
  • 73', Deyverson , Marinho ,
  • 77', Tapia G. , Luciano ,
  • 78', Wendell , Alisson ,
  • 85', 0 - 2, Luciano , Diaz E. (A),
  • 87', Pochettino T. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Fortaleza
33.8%
Draw
33%
São Paulo
33.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
34.8% 30.3% 34.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.1% 30% 34.5%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)
  • São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+1.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+1.3%)
  • Fortaleza - São Paulo Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.87
    (2.7)
    2.9
    (3.1)
    2.86
    (2.7)
    4.3%
    (6.3%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
  • What is the prediction for Fortaleza - São Paulo?
  • Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Fortaleza will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). São Paulo will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Fortaleza: 4%71%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Fortaleza (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 3.
    • Recent performances by Fortaleza have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • São Paulo is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • Fortaleza may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
    • There will not play in Fortaleza: Bruno Pacheco (Yellow Cards) Mancuso E. (Yellow Cards) Tinga (Groin Injury)
    • There will not play in São Paulo: Andre Silva (Knee Injury) Ferraresi N. (Inactive) Jonathan Calleri (Knee Injury) Luan Silva (Inactive) Marcos Antonio (Inactive) Oscar (Back Injury) Robert Arboleda (Yellow Cards) Ryan Francisco (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in Fortaleza: Allanzinho (Inactive) Benevenuto (Hamstring Injury) Moises (Thigh Injury) Pablo Roberto (Inactive)
    • There are questionable in São Paulo: Toloi R. (Injury)
    • In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 22:20. (average 1.3:1.2).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Fortaleza won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:10. (average 1.4:1.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Fortaleza - São Paulo were as follows:
    02.05.2025 São Paulo - Fortaleza 0:0
    27.07.2024 Fortaleza - São Paulo 1:0
    13.04.2024 São Paulo - Fortaleza 1:2
    20.09.2023 São Paulo - Fortaleza 1:2
    11.05.2023 Fortaleza - São Paulo 0:0
    Latest results of Fortaleza
    27.09.2025 Fortaleza - Sport Recife 1:0
    20.09.2025 Palmeiras - Fortaleza 4:1
    24.08.2025 Fortaleza - Mirassol 0:1
    Latest results of São Paulo
    29.09.2025 São Paulo - Ceará 0:1
    25.09.2025 São Paulo - LDU Quito 0:1
    21.09.2025 Santos - São Paulo 1:0
    18.09.2025 LDU Quito - São Paulo 2:0
    14.09.2025 São Paulo - Botafogo RJ 1:0
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Flamengo RJ25167250:123855
    2Palmeiras24164439:192052
    3Cruzeiro26156539:192051
    4Botafogo RJ27127837:231443
    5Mirassol251110442:251743
    6Bahia25117733:30340
    7Fluminense25115933:31238
    8Sao Paulo26108829:25438
    9Bragantino26961132:38-633
    10Gremio2689928:32-433
    11Internacional26881032:38-632
    12Ceara25871023:24-131
    13Vasco26861238:38030
    14Corinthians26791026:32-630
    15Atletico-MG25781022:29-729
    16Santos25771125:35-1028
    17Vitoria265101121:38-1725
    18Juventude25651420:46-2623
    19Fortaleza25561424:40-1621
    20Sport Recife24291318:37-1915

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet