Fortaleza vs São Paulo – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie A Fortaleza - São Paulo
Result
0:2
02/10/2025 at 18:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie A Betano - Round 26
  • Referee: Daronco A. (Bra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Caze TV, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Record, Vivo Play, Zapping
chinaChinaK-Ball
ecuadorEcuadorEl Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
mexicoMexicoFanatiz
portugalPortugalCanal 11
russiaRussiaMATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
surinameSurinameSCCN
usaUsaFanatiz

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.991.43
Ball Possession
74%26%
Total shots
258
Shots on target
63
Big Chances
12
Corner Kicks
86
Passes
88% (551/628)65% (142/219)
Yellow Cards
30
Red Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
0.991.43
xG on target (xGOT)
0.391.61
Total shots
258
Shots on target
63
Shots off target
94
Blocked Shots
101
Shots inside the Box
146
Shots outside the Box
112
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
12
Corner Kicks
86
Touches in opposition box
3615
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
00
Free Kicks
912
Passes
88% (551/628)65% (142/219)
Long passes
67% (26/39)30% (16/54)
Passes in final third
75% (164/218)53% (25/47)
Crosses
16% (6/38)27% (3/11)
Expected assists (xA)
1.281.01
Throw-ins
268
Fouls
129
Tackles
71% (10/14)43% (3/7)
Duels won
4740
Clearances
1150
Interceptions
910
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
16
xGOT faced
1.610.39
Goals prevented
-0.390.39

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 11', 0 - 1, Tapia G. ,
  • 22', Rigoni E. 🟥,
  • 45+4', Avila G. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 46', Rodriguinho , Diaz E. ,
  • 46', Herrera J. , Breno Lopes ,
  • 46', Pereira M. , Guzman Y. ,
  • 59', Lucas Sasha 🟨,
  • 62', Yago Pikachu , Pochettino T. ,
  • 62', Lucas Crispim , Bareiro A. ,
  • 68', Soares C. , Mailton ,
  • 73', Deyverson , Marinho ,
  • 77', Tapia G. , Luciano ,
  • 78', Wendell , Alisson ,
  • 85', 0 - 2, Luciano , Diaz E. (A),
  • 87', Pochettino T. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Fortaleza
33.8%
Draw
33%
São Paulo
33.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
34.8% 30.3% 34.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.1% 30% 34.5%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)
  • São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+1.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+1.3%)
  • Fortaleza - São Paulo Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.87
    (2.7)
    2.9
    (3.1)
    2.86
    (2.7)
    4.3%
    (6.3%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
    What is the prediction for Fortaleza - São Paulo?
  • Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Fortaleza will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). São Paulo will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Fortaleza: 4%71%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Fortaleza (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 3.
    • Recent performances by Fortaleza have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • São Paulo is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • Fortaleza may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
    • There will not play in Fortaleza: Bruno Pacheco (Yellow Cards) Mancuso E. (Yellow Cards) Tinga (Groin Injury)
    • There will not play in São Paulo: Andre Silva (Knee Injury) Ferraresi N. (Inactive) Jonathan Calleri (Knee Injury) Luan Silva (Inactive) Marcos Antonio (Inactive) Oscar (Back Injury) Robert Arboleda (Yellow Cards) Ryan Francisco (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in Fortaleza: Allanzinho (Inactive) Benevenuto (Hamstring Injury) Moises (Thigh Injury) Pablo Roberto (Inactive)
    • There are questionable in São Paulo: Toloi R. (Injury)
    • In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 22:20. (average 1.3:1.2).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Fortaleza won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:10. (average 1.4:1.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Fortaleza - São Paulo were as follows:
    02.05.2025 São Paulo - Fortaleza 0:0
    27.07.2024 Fortaleza - São Paulo 1:0
    13.04.2024 São Paulo - Fortaleza 1:2
    20.09.2023 São Paulo - Fortaleza 1:2
    11.05.2023 Fortaleza - São Paulo 0:0
    Latest results of Fortaleza
    27.09.2025 Fortaleza - Sport Recife 1:0
    20.09.2025 Palmeiras - Fortaleza 4:1
    24.08.2025 Fortaleza - Mirassol 0:1
    Latest results of São Paulo
    29.09.2025 São Paulo - Ceará 0:1
    25.09.2025 São Paulo - LDU Quito 0:1
    21.09.2025 Santos - São Paulo 1:0
    18.09.2025 LDU Quito - São Paulo 2:0
    14.09.2025 São Paulo - Botafogo RJ 1:0
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Palmeiras28194553:262761
    2Flamengo RJ28187356:154161
    3Cruzeiro29168542:212156
    4Mirassol301510552:312155
    5Bahia30147940:34649
    6Botafogo RJ29137939:261346
    7Fluminense291351136:35144
    8Sao Paulo301181133:33041
    9Vasco291161246:41539
    10Corinthians301091132:35-339
    11Bragantino291061334:44-1036
    12Atletico-MG29991127:32-536
    13Gremio29991130:37-736
    14Ceara29981227:28-135
    15Internacional30981335:43-835
    16Santos28871328:40-1231
    17Vitoria307101327:44-1731
    18Juventude29751723:53-3026
    19Fortaleza28661626:44-1824
    20Sport Recife292111622:46-2417

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet