Result
1:2
21/02/2026 at 16:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Paulista - Play Offs - Quarter-finals
- Referee: Muniz dos Santos D. C. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Claro TV+, HBO Max, Sky+, TNT Sports, Vivo Play, Zapping |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.68 | 1.08 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 56% | 44% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (255/327) | 72% (186/260) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.68 | 1.08 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.87 | 1.51 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 5 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 18 | 14 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (255/327) | 72% (186/260) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 48% (27/56) | 46% (26/57) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 68% (82/121) | 59% (47/79) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 25% (7/28) | 40% (6/15) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.65 | 0.82 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 17 | 21 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 78% (18/23) | 57% (13/23) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 59 | 55 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 16 | 28 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 0 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.51 | 0.87 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.49 | -0.13 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 19', Bobadilla D. 🟨,
- 36', Diaz E. 🟨,
- 36', Lucas Barbosa 🟨,
- 40', 0 - 1, Bobadilla D. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 52', 0 - 2, Lucas Moura ⚽, Luciano (A),
- 55', Mosquera H. ↓, Herrera J. ↑,
- 55', Matheus Fernandes ↓, Eduardo Sasha ↑,
- 63', Franco A. 🟨,
- 64', Gabriel ↓, Sosa I. ↑,
- 65', Danielzinho ↓, Pablo Maia ↑,
- 65', Pitta I. ↓, Fernando Santos ↑,
- 72', 1 - 2, Gustavo Marques ⚽, Sosa I. (A),
- 75', Luciano ↓, Ferraresi N. ↑,
- 75', Lucas Moura ↓, Tapia G. ↑,
- 82', Hurtado A. ↓, Vinicinho ↑,
- 85', Marcos Antonio ↓, Cauly ↑,
- 87', Eduardo Sasha 🟨,
- 88', Sosa I. 🟨,
- 90+2', Franco A. 🟨,
- 90+6', Pablo Maia 🟨,
- 90+7', Jonathan Calleri 🟨,
Chances of winning
Red Bull Bragantino
38.5% | Draw
30.8% | São Paulo
30.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Red Bull Bragantino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Red Bull Bragantino than the current prediction. (+1.9%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-3.7%)
Red Bull Bragantino - São Paulo Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.41 ↑
(2.38) |
3.01 ↑
(2.82) |
3.06 ↓
(3.33) |
7.4%
(7.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Red Bull Bragantino - São Paulo?
Users Predictions:
6 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 66.7%). High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. RB Bragantino (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- DC - RB Bragantino (1.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 3 high ROI users predict this event. RB Bragantino (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, RB Bragantino won 2.
- In recent matches, RB Bragantino has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- São Paulo is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- RB Bragantino is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- There will not play in RB Bragantino: Alix Vinicius
(Injury)
Eduardo Sasha
(Inactive)
Fabricio
(Inactive)
Matheus Fernandes
(Inactive)
Rodriguez G.
(Knee Injury)
Rodriguinho
(Injury)
Vanderlan
(Inactive)
- There will not play in São Paulo: Andre Silva
(Knee Injury)
Bobadilla D.
(Injury)
Carlos Coronel
(Inactive)
Robert Arboleda
(Inactive)
Ryan Francisco
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, RB Bragantino won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 25:26. (average 1.3:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, RB Bragantino won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:12. (average 1.6:1.2).
How many head-to-head matches has Red Bull Bragantino won against São Paulo?
Red Bull Bragantino has won 3 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has São Paulo won against Red Bull Bragantino?
São Paulo has won 2 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Red Bull Bragantino - São Paulo were as follows:
08.11.2025
São Paulo
-
Red Bull Bragantino
0:1
16.07.2025
Red Bull Bragantino
-
São Paulo
2:2
08.02.2025
Red Bull Bragantino
-
São Paulo
1:0
20.11.2024
Red Bull Bragantino
-
São Paulo
1:1
06.07.2024
São Paulo
-
Red Bull Bragantino
2:0
Latest results of Red Bull Bragantino
Latest results of São Paulo
Draw
Play OffsQuarter-finals| 1 | Novorizontino (1) | Santos (8) | 2 : 1 |
| 2 | Portuguesa (4) | Corinthians (5) | 1 : 2 |
| 3 | Palmeiras (2) | Capivariano (7) | 4 : 0 |
| 4 | Bragantino (3) | Sao Paulo (6) | 1 : 2 |
Semi-finals| 1 | Novorizontino (1) | Corinthians (5) | 1 : 0 |
| 2 | Palmeiras (2) | Sao Paulo (6) | 2 : 1 |
Final| 1 | Novorizontino (1) | Palmeiras (2) | |
