Result
1:0
16/08/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Pro - Round 25
- Referee: Leon R. (Ecu)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
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Ecuador | Canal del Futbol, Ecuavisa, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping |
Peru | Zapping Sports |
Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
---|
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
0.28 | 0.86 |
Ball Possession |
---|
39% | 61% |
Total shots |
---|
8 | 16 |
Shots on target |
---|
3 | 4 |
Big Chances |
---|
1 | 1 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
1 | 9 |
Passes |
---|
77% (213/277) | 84% (338/403) |
Yellow Cards |
---|
1 | 1 |
Red Cards |
---|
1 | 0 |
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
0.28 | 0.86 |
xG on target (xGOT) |
---|
0.29 | 0.20 |
Total shots |
---|
8 | 16 |
Shots on target |
---|
3 | 4 |
Shots off target |
---|
3 | 10 |
Blocked Shots |
---|
2 | 2 |
Shots inside the Box |
---|
2 | 15 |
Shots outside the Box |
---|
6 | 1 |
Hit the Woodwork |
---|
0 | 2 |
Big Chances |
---|
1 | 1 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
1 | 9 |
Touches in opposition box |
---|
10 | 24 |
Accurate through passes |
---|
0 | 0 |
Offsides |
---|
0 | 1 |
Free Kicks |
---|
11 | 11 |
Passes |
---|
77% (213/277) | 84% (338/403) |
Long passes |
---|
35% (17/48) | 48% (24/50) |
Passes in final third |
---|
69% (50/72) | 60% (47/78) |
Crosses |
---|
7% (1/14) | 35% (13/37) |
Expected assists (xA) |
---|
0.31 | 1.04 |
Throw-ins |
---|
10 | 18 |
Fouls |
---|
11 | 10 |
Tackles |
---|
75% (9/12) | 50% (4/8) |
Duels won |
---|
34 | 39 |
Clearances |
---|
30 | 11 |
Interceptions |
---|
7 | 5 |
Errors leading to shot |
---|
0 | 0 |
Errors leading to goal |
---|
0 | 0 |
Goalkeeper Saves |
---|
4 | 2 |
xGOT faced |
---|
0.20 | 0.29 |
Goals prevented |
---|
0.20 | -0.71 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 33', Peralta K. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Charcopa J. ↓, Gracia A. ↑,
- 63', Montenegro B. ↓, Zambrano C. ↑,
- 68', Mina G. ↓, Chala Rosales W. J. ↑,
- 68', Burbano R. ↓, Verges J. ↑,
- 71', Patino D. ↓, Ciccioli U. ↑,
- 72', 1 - 0, Arce L. ⚽, Gracia A. (A),
- 80', Ontaneda J. ↓, Almagro A. ↑,
- 80', Jaramilo R. ↓, Miranda B. ↑,
- 89', Orejuela C. ↓, Delgado B. ↑,
- 90+1', Gracia A. 🟥,
- 90+4', Carcelen Carabali M. A. 🟨,
- 90+5', Penilla C. ↓, Arce J. ↑,
Chances of winning
Mushuc Runa 28.8% | Draw 27.5% | SD Aucas 43.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Mushuc Runa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mushuc Runa's form might have worsened.SD Aucas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting SD Aucas's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mushuc Runa than the current prediction. (+5.7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mushuc Runa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for SD Aucas than the current prediction. (-5.9%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for SD Aucas, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Mushuc Runa - SD Aucas Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now (Initially) |
3.27 ↑ (2.61) |
3.36 ↑ (3.36) |
2.08 ↓ (2.53) |
8.4% (7.8%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Mushuc Runa - SD Aucas?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH 0 - Aucas (votes: 6 - 100%).
- DNB - Aucas (votes: 4 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
SD Aucas will win
(13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.37% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): SD Aucas will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mushuc Runa won 1.
- Mushuc Runa is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Aucas has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Aucas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Aucas is seen as the favorite.
- We predict that Aucas will win today's game, with odds of 1.9.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Mushuc Runa won 4 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 16:31. (average 0.8:1.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Mushuc Runa won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 8:16. (average 0.9:1.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Mushuc Runa won against SD Aucas?
Mushuc Runa has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has SD Aucas won against Mushuc Runa?
SD Aucas has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Mushuc Runa - SD Aucas were as follows:
27.04.2025
SD Aucas
-
Mushuc Runa
2:0
15.09.2024
SD Aucas
-
Mushuc Runa
1:2
30.03.2024
Mushuc Runa
-
SD Aucas
0:2
29.10.2023
SD Aucas
-
Mushuc Runa
4:0
20.05.2023
Mushuc Runa
-
SD Aucas
0:0
Latest results of Mushuc Runa
Latest results of SD Aucas
Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table
Placement Group | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
7 | Dep. Cuenca | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 36:32 | 4 | 46 |
8 | Emelec | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 33:35 | -2 | 45 |
9 | Aucas | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 38:41 | -3 | 41 |
10 | Macara | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 32:30 | 2 | 38 |
11 | EL Nacional | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 34:48 | -14 | 35 |
12 | Delfin | 31 | 6 | 14 | 11 | 28:44 | -16 | 32 |
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Qualification: )