Result
3:2
23/03/2026 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Pro - Round 6
- Referee: Cabrera R. (Ecu)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Chile | Zapping Sports |
 Ecuador | Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+ |
 Peru | Zapping Sports |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.39 | 1.35 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 47% | 53% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (300/365) | 85% (348/411) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.39 | 1.35 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.24 | 1.11 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 11 | 5 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 10 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 18 | 12 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (300/365) | 85% (348/411) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 55% (28/51) | 53% (26/49) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 77% (90/117) | 64% (43/67) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 21% (3/14) | 22% (5/23) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.33 | 0.64 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 16 | 19 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 85% (11/13) | 69% (9/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 40 | 37 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 31 | 13 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.11 | 2.24 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.89 | -0.76 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 0)
- 3', 1 - 0, Mena A. ⚽, Arroyo L. (A),
- 12', Zova A. 🟨,
- 35', Caicedo B. 🟨,
- 37', Arroyo L. 🟨,
- 39', Mina S. 🟨,
- 41', 2 - 0, Guzman P. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (1 - 2)
- 46', Zova A. ↓, Olaya V. ↑,
- 46', Caicedo B. ↓, Armas D. ↑,
- 63', Jaramilo R. ↓, Pluas E. ↑,
- 63', Mina S. ↓, Lorenzo A. ↑,
- 63', Bolanos R. ↓, Vera M. ↑,
- 67', Gustavino L. 🟨,
- 75', Silva R. 🟨,
- 76', 3 - 0, Miranda B. ⚽,
- 77', Burgoa V. ↓, Garces L. ↑,
- 82', Caicedo E. ↓, Zambrano Pesantez E. S. ↑,
- 84', Garces L. 🟨,
- 85', 3 - 1, Zambrano Pesantez E. S. ⚽, Garces L. (A),
- 86', Arroyo L. ↓, Porozo S. ↑,
- 86', Guzman P. ↓, Preciado E. ↑,
- 90', Ontaneda J. 🟨,
- 90+8', 3 - 2, Vasquez S. (Penalty Awarded),
- 90+9', Morales S. 🟨,
Chances of winning
SD Aucas
53.6% | Draw
26.8% | Orense
19.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
SD Aucas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)Orense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for SD Aucas than the current prediction. (-0.7%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orense than the current prediction. (-0.6%)
SD Aucas - Orense Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.73 ↓
(1.84) |
3.43 ↑
(3.17) |
4.76 ↑
(4.74) |
8.1%
(7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for SD Aucas - Orense?
Users Predictions:
19 users predict this event. Aucas will win (votes: 15 - 78.9%). Orense will win (votes: 1 - 5.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 15.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aucas: 60.6% – 97.2%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): SD Aucas will win (2 of 2 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: ) and 11 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aucas won 2.
- Recent form of Aucas has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Orense's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Orense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Aucas is the team to beat.
- In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Aucas won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 18:13. (average 1.5:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Aucas won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:1. (average 1.7:0.2).
How many head-to-head matches has SD Aucas won against Orense?
SD Aucas has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Orense won against SD Aucas?
Orense has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between SD Aucas - Orense were as follows:
21.09.2025
SD Aucas
-
Orense
0:0
24.05.2025
Orense
-
SD Aucas
2:1
02.08.2024
Orense
-
SD Aucas
4:0
02.03.2024
SD Aucas
-
Orense
2:0
03.12.2023
Orense
-
SD Aucas
1:2
Latest results of SD Aucas
Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Ind. del Valle | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 13:6 | 7 | 16 |
| 2 | U. Catolica | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 11:4 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Barcelona SC | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6:3 | 3 | 12 |
| 4 | Tecnico U | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8:6 | 2 | 11 |
| 5 | Dep. Cuenca | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7:5 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Macara | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5:3 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Libertad | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 7:6 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | LDU Quito | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7:8 | -1 | 10 |
| 9 | Aucas | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8:8 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Delfin | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3:4 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 8:9 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Leones del Norte | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3:7 | -4 | 7 |
| 13 | Guayaquil City | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3:8 | -5 | 6 |
| 14 | Emelec | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6:8 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Orense | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9:13 | -4 | 5 |
| 16 | Manta | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2:8 | -6 | 4 |
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )
Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )
