Carlos Alcaraz Garfia vs Sebastian Baez – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Tennis ATP Tokyo Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Sebastian Baez
Result
2:0
25/09/2025 at 04:55 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • ATP - SINGLES: Tokyo, hard - 1/16-finals

Match Stats

Aces
31
Double Faults
22
1st Serve Percentage
77%74%
1st Serve Points Won
72% (31/43)63% (25/40)
2nd Serve Points Won
38% (5/13)36% (5/14)
Break Points Saved
50% (1/2)20% (1/5)
1st Return Points Won
38% (15/40)28% (12/43)
2nd Return Points Won
64% (9/14)62% (8/13)
Break Points Converted
80% (4/5)50% (1/2)
Service Points Won
64% (36/56)56% (30/54)
Return Points Won
44% (24/54)36% (20/56)
Total Points Won
55% (60/110)45% (50/110)
Last 10 Balls
55
Match Points Saved
00
Service Games Won
89% (8/9)56% (5/9)
Return Games Won
44% (4/9)11% (1/9)
Total Games Won
67% (12/18)33% (6/18)

Chances of winning


Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
94%
Sebastian Baez
6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
91.4% 8.6%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)
  • Sebastian Baez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)
  • Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Sebastian Baez Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.01
    (1.03)

    15.28
    (10.9)
    5.7%
    (6.3%)
    Preview Facts
    • Alcaraz Garfia is ranked ATP: 1. Baez is ranked ATP: 41.
    • Alcaraz Garfia is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).
    • Baez has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • Baez may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, Alcaraz Garfia is the undisputed favorite.
    • In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Alcaraz Garfia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:0. (average 1.5:0).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Sebastian Baez were as follows:
    30.08.2022 Sebastian Baez - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 0:2
    Latest results of Sebastian Baez
    Draw
    Singles - Main

    1/16-finals
    1Alcaraz C. (1)Baez S.2 : 0
    2Bergs Z.Tabilo A.2 : 1
    3Thompson J.Nakashima B.1 : 2
    4Fucsovics M. (Q)Tiafoe F. (8)2 : 1
    5Ruud C. (4)Mochizuki S. (WC)2 : 1
    6Munar J.Berrettini M.0 : 2
    7Dzumhur D.Vukic A. (Q)1 : 2
    8Altmaier D.Shapovalov D. (7)2 : 0
    9Humbert U. (6)Brooksby J. (PR)0 : 2
    10Nishioka Y. (WC)Darderi L.0 : 2
    11Michelsen A.Quinn E. (Q)0 : 2
    12Medjedovic H.Rune H. (3)0 : 2
    13Machac T. (5)Shimabukuro S. (Q)0 : 2
    14Giron M.Korda S.1 : 2
    15Watanuki Y. (WC)Borges N.1 : 2
    16Diallo G.Fritz T. (2)1 : 2

    1/8-finals
    1Alcaraz C. (1)Bergs Z.2 : 0
    2Nakashima B.Fucsovics M.2 : 0
    3Ruud C. (4)Berrettini M.2 : 0
    4Vukic A.Altmaier D.2 : 0
    5Brooksby J.Darderi L.2 : 0
    6Quinn E.Rune H. (3)0 : 2
    7Shimabukuro S.Korda S.0 : 2
    8Borges N.Fritz T. (2)0 : 2

    Quarter-finals
    1Alcaraz C. (1)Nakashima B.2 : 0
    2Ruud C. (4)Vukic A.2 : 0
    3Brooksby J.Rune H. (3)2 : 0
    4Korda S.Fritz T. (2)1 : 2

    Semi-finals
    1Alcaraz C. (1)Ruud C. (4)2 : 1
    2Brooksby J.Fritz T. (2)0 : 2

    Final
    1Alcaraz C. (1)Fritz T. (2)2 : 0