Result
1:0
27/09/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 25
- Referee: Lacerda D. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.01 | 0.68 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 53% | 47% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (337/392) | 85% (302/356) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.01 | 0.68 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.36 | 1.22 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 9 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 20 | 14 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 16 | 17 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (337/392) | 85% (302/356) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 55% (30/55) | 56% (27/48) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 73% (82/113) | 59% (44/74) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 21% (6/28) | 29% (4/14) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.74 | 0.55 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 15 | 23 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 17 | 16 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 59% (13/22) | 57% (8/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 54 | 56 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 25 | 45 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.22 | 0.36 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.22 | -0.64 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 19', Mancuso E. 🟨,
- 34', Bruno Pacheco 🟨,
- 35', Derik Lacerda 🟨,
- 44', 1 - 0, Lucas Sasha ⚽, Mancuso E. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Rafael Thyere ↓, Silva J. ↑,
- 58', Leo Pereira ↓, Chrystian Barletta ↑,
- 58', Lucas Kal ↓, Hyoran ↑,
- 58', Bruno Pacheco ↓, Diogo Barbosa ↑,
- 68', Breno Lopes ↓, Herrera J. ↑,
- 68', Lucas Crispim ↓, Guzman Y. ↑,
- 72', Luan Candido 🟨,
- 79', Lucas Lima ↓, Romarinho ↑,
- 82', Deyverson ↓, Lucero J. ↑,
- 83', Yago Pikachu ↓, Kuscevic B. ↑,
- 83', Matheusinho ↓, Ramirez I. ↑,
- 83', Aderlan 🟨,
Chances of winning
Fortaleza
65.6% | Draw
24.9% | Sport Recife
9.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Fortaleza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.7%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fortaleza's performance.Sport Recife has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.5%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sport Recife might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (-11.8%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fortaleza that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (+10.5%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sport Recife could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Fortaleza - Sport Recife Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.63 ↓
(1.75) |
4.58 ↑
(3.6) |
13.42 ↑
(4.75) |
-9.4%
(6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Fortaleza - Sport Recife?
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Fortaleza will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Recife will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fortaleza: 23.1% – 88.1%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Recife (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 3.
- Recent form of Fortaleza has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- In recent matches, Recife has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- In this match, Fortaleza is seen as the favorite.
- There will not play in Fortaleza: Allanzinho
(Inactive)
Benevenuto
(Hamstring Injury)
Britez E.
(Yellow Cards)
Guzman Y.
(Inactive)
Herrera J.
(Knee Injury)
Joao Ricardo
(Shoulder Injury)
Kayke
(Inactive)
Kuscevic B.
(Hamstring Injury)
Moises
(Thigh Injury)
Pablo Roberto
(Inactive)
Tinga
(Groin Injury)
Weverson
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Recife: Denis
(Knee Injury)
Hereda
(Health problems)
Oliveira S.
(Ankle Injury)
Ze Lucas
(Yellow Cards)
- There are questionable in Recife: Ze Roberto
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 9 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:8. (average 1.1:0.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Fortaleza won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:1. (average 1.2:0.2).
How many head-to-head matches has Fortaleza won against Sport Recife?
Fortaleza has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Sport Recife won against Fortaleza?
Sport Recife has won 0 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Fortaleza - Sport Recife were as follows:
26.04.2025
Sport Recife
-
Fortaleza
0:0
04.02.2025
Sport Recife
-
Fortaleza
0:2
26.05.2024
Sport Recife
-
Fortaleza
1:4
21.02.2024
Sport Recife
-
Fortaleza
1:1
Latest results of Fortaleza
Latest results of Sport Recife
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 28 | 19 | 4 | 5 | 53:26 | 27 | 61 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | 28 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 56:15 | 41 | 61 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 29 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 42:21 | 21 | 56 |
| 4 | Mirassol | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 52:31 | 21 | 55 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 40:34 | 6 | 49 |
| 6 | Botafogo RJ | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 39:26 | 13 | 46 |
| 7 | Fluminense | 29 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 36:35 | 1 | 44 |
| 8 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 33:33 | 0 | 41 |
| 9 | Vasco | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 46:41 | 5 | 39 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 32:35 | -3 | 39 |
| 11 | Bragantino | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 34:44 | -10 | 36 |
| 12 | Atletico-MG | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 27:32 | -5 | 36 |
| 13 | Gremio | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 30:37 | -7 | 36 |
| 14 | Ceara | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 27:28 | -1 | 35 |
| 15 | Internacional | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 35:43 | -8 | 35 |
| 16 | Santos | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 28:40 | -12 | 31 |
| 17 | Vitoria | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 27:44 | -17 | 31 |
| 18 | Juventude | 29 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 23:53 | -30 | 26 |
| 19 | Fortaleza | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 26:44 | -18 | 24 |
| 20 | Sport Recife | 29 | 2 | 11 | 16 | 22:46 | -24 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
