Sport Recife vs Palmeiras – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie A Sport Recife - Palmeiras
Result
1:2
06/04/2025 at 17:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie A Betano - Round 2
  • Referee: Arleu B. (Bra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Caze TV, Claro TV+, PlayPlus, Premiere, R7, Sky+, TV Record, Vivo Play, Zapping
chinaChinaK-Ball

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.481.88
Ball Possession
50%50%
Total shots
98
Shots on target
25
Big Chances
02
Corner Kicks
63
Passes
79% (282/356)78% (281/359)
Yellow Cards
64
Expected Goals (xG)
0.481.88
xG on target (xGOT)
0.152.37
Total shots
98
Shots on target
25
Shots off target
23
Blocked Shots
50
Shots inside the Box
54
Shots outside the Box
43
Hit the Woodwork
10
Big Chances
02
Corner Kicks
63
Touches in opposition box
2513
Offsides
10
Free Kicks
2117
Passes
79% (282/356)78% (281/359)
Long passes
56% (31/55)38% (23/61)
Passes in final third
66% (69/104)53% (43/81)
Crosses
11% (2/18)21% (3/14)
Expected assists (xA)
0.470.37
Fouls
1721
Tackles
71% (15/21)57% (8/14)
Duels won
5248
Clearances Total
3019
Interceptions
48
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
31
xGOT faced
2.370.15
Goals prevented
0.37-0.85

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 1)
  • 8', Torres F. 🟨,
  • 20', Murilo 🟨,
  • 21', Rivera C. 🟨,
  • 30', Hereda , Matheus Alexandre ,
  • 32', 0 - 1, Flaco Lopez (Pen),
  • 32', Chico 🟨,
  • 38', 1 - 1, Chrystian Barletta , Lucas Lima (A),
  • 43', Bruno Fuchs 🟨,
  • 45', Lucas Lima 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 46', Vanderlan , Piquerez J. ,
  • 46', Felipe Anderson , Estevao ,
  • 59', Martinez E. , Moreno A. ,
  • 59', Bruno Fuchs , Raphael Veiga ,
  • 73', Lucas Evangelista , Vitor Roque ,
  • 74', Pablo 🟨,
  • 79', Du Queiroz , Dominguez F. ,
  • 79', Pablo , Arthur Sousa ,
  • 83', Chrystian Barletta , Carlos Alberto ,
  • 83', Lucas Lima , Lobato L. ,
  • 84', Oliveira S. 🟨,
  • 89', 1 - 2, Raphael Veiga (Pen),
  • 90+4', Vitor Roque 🟨,
  • 90+7', Matheus Alexandre 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Sport Recife
27.4%
Draw
30.2%
Palmeiras
42.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
15.8% 24.1% 60.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.7% 24% 60.3%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Sport Recife has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sport Recife's performance.
  • Palmeiras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Palmeiras might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (-11.7%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sport Recife that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (+17.8%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Palmeiras could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Sport Recife - Palmeiras Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    3.58
    (5.98)
    3.22
    (3.93)
    2.2
    (1.58)
    4.5%
    (5.6%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
  • What is the prediction for Sport Recife - Palmeiras?
  • Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Recife will win (votes: 3 - 30%). Palmeiras will win (votes: 6 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Palmeiras: 29.6%90.4%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Recife (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH +0.25 - Recife (votes: 3 - 75%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • Last 5 head-to-head matches Recife won 0.
    • Recife is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
    • Recent matches Palmeiras is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
    • Recife could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
    • In this match Palmeiras is a favorite.
    • There will not play in Recife: Atencio R. (Toe Injury) Dalbert (Calf Injury)
    • There will not play in Palmeiras: Bruno Rodrigues (Injury) Marcos Rocha (Hamstring Injury) Paulinho (Inactive) Pedro Felipe (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in Recife: Igor Carius (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Palmeiras: Mauricio (Injury)
    • Last 18 head-to-head matches Recife won 6 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 10 matches and goals 22:30 (average 1.2:1.7).
    • Including matches at home between the teams Recife won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 8:12 (average 0.9:1.3).
    Latest results of Sport Recife
    Latest results of Palmeiras
    30.03.2025 Palmeiras - Botafogo RJ 0:0
    27.03.2025 Corinthians - Palmeiras 0:0
    10.03.2025 Palmeiras - São Paulo 1:0
    01.03.2025 São Bernardo - Palmeiras 0:3
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Cruzeiro16104227:91834
    2Flamengo RJ1493227:52230
    3Palmeiras1492318:12629
    4Bragantino1583418:15327
    5Botafogo RJ1474317:71025
    6Bahia1474317:13425
    7Mirassol1466223:131024
    8Fluminense1462616:17-120
    9Atletico-MG1455416:15120
    10Corinthians1655615:19-420
    11Ceara1553714:15-118
    12Internacional1445514:18-417
    13Gremio1445514:20-617
    14Sao Paulo1537514:18-416
    15Vitoria1536611:15-415
    16Vasco1442815:19-414
    17Santos1442812:17-514
    18Juventude1332810:28-1811
    19Fortaleza1425713:20-711
    20Sport Recife1303105:21-163

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