Result
3:0
25/08/2025 at 18:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 21
- Referee: Zanovelli P. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
 Ecuador | El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
 Israel | Sport 3 |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 Russia | MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.21 | 0.35 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 46% | 54% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 22 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 6 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (309/374) | 85% (371/437) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.21 | 0.35 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 3.45 | 0.01 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 22 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 11 | 5 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 17 | 3 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 6 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 33 | 10 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (309/374) | 85% (371/437) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 58% (31/53) | 49% (21/43) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 76% (79/104) | 65% (64/99) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 64% (9/14) | 21% (3/14) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.82 | 0.42 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 14 | 17 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 55% (12/22) | 68% (13/19) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 53 | 46 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 17 | 18 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 3 | 14 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.01 | 3.45 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.01 | 0.45 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 14', 1 - 0, Lopez J. ⚽, Vitor Roque (A),
- 21', Kevyson 🟨,
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 56', 2 - 0, Lopez J. ⚽,
- 59', 3 - 0, Gomez G. ⚽, Mauricio (A),
- 60', Kevyson ↓, Aderlan ↑,
- 60', Pablo ↓, Ramirez I. ↑,
- 60', Ze Lucas ↓, Pedro Augusto ↑,
- 68', Felipe Anderson ↓, Sosa R. ↑,
- 68', Mauricio ↓, Torres F. ↑,
- 82', Lucas Lima ↓, Romarinho ↑,
- 84', Lucas Evangelista ↓, Allan ↑,
- 84', Khellven ↓, Giay A. ↑,
- 85', Pedro Augusto 🟨,
- 90+2', Piquerez J. ↓, Jefte ↑,
- 90+2', Leo Pereira ↓, Chrystian Barletta ↑,
Chances of winning
Palmeiras
71.4% | Draw
18.9% | Sport Recife
9.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)Sport Recife has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (+0.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (+1.1%)
Palmeiras - Sport Recife Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.33 ↓
(1.38) |
5 ↑
(4.63) |
9.85 ↑
(8.3) |
5.3%
(6.3%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Palmeiras - Sport Recife?
Users Predictions:
16 users predict this event. Palmeiras will win (votes: 13 - 81.3%). Recife will win (votes: 1 - 6.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Palmeiras: 62.2% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 5 high ROI users predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 3 - 60%). Recife (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
Preview Facts
- One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 4.
- Palmeiras is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Recife's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Recife may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Palmeiras is the undisputed favorite.
- There will not play in Palmeiras: Bruno Rodrigues
(Knee Injury)
Carlos Miguel
(Inactive)
Moreno A.
(Yellow Cards)
Paulinho
(Leg Injury)
Raphael Veiga
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Recife: Denis
(Knee Injury)
Derik Lacerda
(Yellow Cards)
Hereda
(Health problems)
Oliveira S.
(Ankle Injury)
- There are questionable in Recife: Ze Roberto
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 11 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 32:23. (average 1.7:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Palmeiras won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 18:14. (average 2:1.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Palmeiras won against Sport Recife?
Palmeiras has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Sport Recife won against Palmeiras?
Sport Recife has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Palmeiras - Sport Recife were as follows:
06.04.2025
Sport Recife
-
Palmeiras
1:2
Latest results of Palmeiras
Latest results of Sport Recife
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Flamengo RJ | 25 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 50:12 | 38 | 55 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 24 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 39:19 | 20 | 52 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 39:19 | 20 | 51 |
| 4 | Botafogo RJ | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 37:23 | 14 | 43 |
| 5 | Mirassol | 25 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 42:25 | 17 | 43 |
| 6 | Bahia | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 33:30 | 3 | 40 |
| 7 | Fluminense | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 33:31 | 2 | 38 |
| 8 | Sao Paulo | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 29:25 | 4 | 38 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 33:38 | -5 | 36 |
| 10 | Gremio | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 28:33 | -5 | 33 |
| 11 | Internacional | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 32:38 | -6 | 32 |
| 12 | Ceara | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 23:24 | -1 | 31 |
| 13 | Vasco | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 38:38 | 0 | 30 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 26:32 | -6 | 30 |
| 15 | Atletico-MG | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 22:29 | -7 | 29 |
| 16 | Santos | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 25:35 | -10 | 28 |
| 17 | Vitoria | 26 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 21:38 | -17 | 25 |
| 18 | Juventude | 25 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 20:46 | -26 | 23 |
| 19 | Fortaleza | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 24:40 | -16 | 21 |
| 20 | Sport Recife | 24 | 2 | 9 | 13 | 18:37 | -19 | 15 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
