Result
1:1
27/01/2026 at 14:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Bundesliga - Round 16
- Referee: Exner F. (Ger)
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.45 | 1.09 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 46% | 54% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (396/511) | 84% (511/605) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.45 | 1.09 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.12 | 1.59 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 9 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 18 | 35 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (396/511) | 84% (511/605) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 39% (21/54) | 39% (20/51) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 59% (74/126) | 70% (105/149) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 14% (2/14) | 33% (3/9) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.57 | 1.72 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 20 | 22 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 69% (18/26) | 64% (7/11) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 55 | 40 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 20 | 31 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 18 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.59 | 1.12 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.59 | 0.12 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 49', Baumgartner C. 🟨,
- 64', Romulo Cardoso ↓, Harder C. ↑,
- 66', 0 - 1, Diomande Y. ⚽,
- 67', Jones R.J. ↓, Kaars M. ↑,
- 76', Sinani D. ↓, Pereira Lage M. ↑,
- 76', Sands J. ↓, Irvine J. ↑,
- 76', Fujita J. ↓, Rasmussen M. ↑,
- 85', Nusa A. ↓, Gomis T. ↑,
- 85', Baumgartner C. ↓, Banzuzi E. ↑,
- 88', Saliakas M. ↓, Ceesay A. ↑,
- 90+3', 1 - 1, Kaars M. (Penalty Awarded),
- 90+4', Diomande Y. ↓, Henrichs B. ↑,
Chances of winning
St. Pauli
20.1% | Draw
26.4% | RB Leipzig
53.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
St. Pauli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)RB Leipzig has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+3.7%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (-1.6%)
St. Pauli - RB Leipzig Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
4.73 ↑
(3.83) |
3.62 ↓
(3.75) |
1.78 ↓
(1.91) |
4.8%
(5.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for St. Pauli - RB Leipzig?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH +0.5 - St. Pauli (2.10) (votes: 1 - 50%) .
- O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 6 - 66.7%) .
- O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH 0 - St. Pauli (3.37) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .
- DNB - RB Leipzig (1.30) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +0.75 - RB Leipzig (1.96) (votes: 4 - 66.7%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
- AH -1.5 - RB Leipzig (1.04) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- AH -1.75 - RB Leipzig (1.02) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- EH -1 - RB Leipzig (1.21) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- EH -2 - RB Leipzig (1.05) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- DC - St. Pauli (2.03) (votes: 2 - 50%) .
- AH -0.5 - RB Leipzig (1.22) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- AH -0.75 - RB Leipzig (1.11) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- AH -1 - RB Leipzig (1.05) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- AH -1.25 - RB Leipzig (1.05) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- AH +1.5 - RB Leipzig (3.15) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- AH +0.25 - RB Leipzig (1.51) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- AH +1 - RB Leipzig (2.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
RB Leipzig will win
(58 of 67 users predict this - 86.57%).
Confidence interval (95%): 78.41% – 94.73%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): RB Leipzig will win (35 of 41 users predict this - 85.37%) 🥇 Gold Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 78 high ROI users predict this event. St. Pauli (votes: 10 - 12.8%). RB Leipzig (votes: 65 - 83.3%). Tie (votes: 3 - 3.8%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
Preview Facts
- Postponed due to bad weather.
- This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 2.
- St. Pauli is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- RB Leipzig has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- RB Leipzig may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, RB Leipzig is the team to beat.
- There will not play in St. Pauli: Hountondji A.
(Ankle Injury)
Nemeth D.
(Groin Injury)
- There will not play in RB Leipzig: Bakayoko J.
(Muscle Injury)
Banzuzi E.
(Muscle Injury)
Diomande Y.
(International duty)
Gebel V.
(Knee Injury)
Henrichs B.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Nusa A.
(Ankle Injury)
Ouedraogo A.
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 7 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:10. (average 0.9:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, St. Pauli won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0. (average 0.7:0).
How many head-to-head matches has St. Pauli won against RB Leipzig?
St. Pauli has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has RB Leipzig won against St. Pauli?
RB Leipzig has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between St. Pauli - RB Leipzig were as follows:
09.02.2025
RB Leipzig
-
St. Pauli
2:0
29.10.2024
RB Leipzig
-
St. Pauli
4:2
22.09.2024
St. Pauli
-
RB Leipzig
0:0
Latest results of St. Pauli
Latest results of RB Leipzig
German Bundesliga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 23 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 85:21 | 64 | 60 |
| 2 | Dortmund | 23 | 15 | 7 | 1 | 49:22 | 27 | 52 |
| 3 | Hoffenheim | 23 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 49:30 | 19 | 46 |
| 4 | Stuttgart | 23 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 44:32 | 12 | 43 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 44:32 | 12 | 41 |
| 6 | Bayer Leverkusen | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 43:28 | 15 | 39 |
| 7 | Freiburg | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 34:37 | -3 | 33 |
| 8 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 46:49 | -3 | 31 |
| 9 | Union Berlin | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 29:37 | -8 | 28 |
| 10 | Augsburg | 23 | 8 | 4 | 11 | 28:41 | -13 | 28 |
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 25:32 | -7 | 26 |
| 12 | FC Koln | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 33:39 | -6 | 24 |
| 13 | Mainz | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 26:38 | -12 | 22 |
| 14 | B. Monchengladbach | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 26:39 | -13 | 22 |
| 15 | Wolfsburg | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 33:49 | -16 | 20 |
| 16 | St. Pauli | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 22:40 | -18 | 20 |
| 17 | Werder Bremen | 23 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 23:44 | -21 | 19 |
| 18 | Heidenheim | 23 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 22:51 | -29 | 14 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Bundesliga (Relegation)
Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga
