Result
1:0
28/09/2025 at 08:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Bundesliga - Round 8
- Referee: Talic A. (Aut)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Austria | Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 2 |
 Germany | Sky Go Germany |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.43 | 1.44 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 66% | 34% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (383/475) | 59% (141/240) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.43 | 1.44 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.18 | 0.85 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 10 | 11 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 23 | 29 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 16 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (383/475) | 59% (141/240) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 55% (24/44) | 34% (23/67) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 69% (115/167) | 47% (35/75) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 19% (6/31) | 50% (7/14) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.20 | 0.76 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 27 | 27 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 7 | 16 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 57% (8/14) | 53% (10/19) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 65 | 55 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 26 | 38 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 12 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.85 | 1.18 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.85 | 1.18 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 42', Chukwuani T. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 60', Hodl J. ↓, Beck J. ↑,
- 60', Grgic L. ↓, Malone M. ↑,
- 67', Hoffmann M. ↓, Fridrikas L. ↑,
- 71', Jatta S. ↓, Beganovic B. ↑,
- 71', Oermann T. ↓, Bendra K. ↑,
- 80', Aiwu E. 🟨,
- 83', Chukwuani T. ↓, Hierlander S. ↑,
- 83', Kainz T. ↓, Golles J. ↑,
- 83', Havel E. ↓, Mijic P. ↑,
- 90+2', Hulsmann T. 🟨,
- 90+5', 1 - 0, Vincze D. (Own goal),
- 90+12', Fridrikas L. ↓, Prokop D. ↑,
Chances of winning
Sturm Graz
52.7% | Draw
26.1% | Hartberg
21.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Sturm Graz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sturm Graz's form might have worsened.Hartberg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sturm Graz than the current prediction. (+7.9%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sturm Graz, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hartberg than the current prediction. (-3%)
Sturm Graz - Hartberg Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.85 ↑
(1.53) |
3.6 ↓
(4) |
4.53 ↓
(4.75) |
4.1%
(11.4%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Sturm Graz - Hartberg?
Users Predictions:
14 users predict this event. Sturm will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%). Hartberg will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 21.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sturm: 39.2% – 89.4%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Sturm (votes: 1 - 50%). Hartberg (votes: 1 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga (Championship Group: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga (Championship Group: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sturm won 3.
- In recent matches, Sturm has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Hartberg is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Hartberg may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Sturm has had a series of away games.
- In this match, Sturm is the team to beat.
- There will not play in Sturm: Kayombo A.
(Ankle Injury)
Khudyakov D.
(Wrist Injury)
- There will not play in Hartberg: Diarra Y.
(Inactive)
Drew J.
(Back Injury)
Komposch P.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Sturm: Malic A.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sturm won 12 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 38:23. (average 1.9:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Sturm won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 19:11. (average 1.9:1.1).
How many head-to-head matches has Sturm Graz won against Hartberg?
Sturm Graz has won 5 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Hartberg won against Sturm Graz?
Hartberg has won 0 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Sturm Graz - Hartberg were as follows:
09.11.2024
Hartberg
-
Sturm Graz
1:2
11.08.2024
Sturm Graz
-
Hartberg
2:0
05.05.2024
Sturm Graz
-
Hartberg
1:1
14.04.2024
Hartberg
-
Sturm Graz
1:3
10.03.2024
Hartberg
-
Sturm Graz
1:1
Latest results of Sturm Graz
Latest results of Hartberg
Austrian Bundesliga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Sturm Graz | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 18:7 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Salzburg | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 21:14 | 7 | 18 |
| 3 | SK Rapid | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13:11 | 2 | 17 |
| 4 | Wolfsberger AC | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17:11 | 6 | 17 |
| 5 | Austria Vienna | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 15:15 | 0 | 16 |
| 6 | Ried | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14:13 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | Altach | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 8:8 | 0 | 13 |
| 8 | Hartberg | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14:14 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | LASK | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 11:17 | -6 | 10 |
| 10 | BW Linz | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10:15 | -5 | 10 |
| 11 | Tirol | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14:17 | -3 | 9 |
| 12 | Grazer AK | 10 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 6:19 | -13 | 6 |
Promotion ~ Bundesliga (Championship Group: )
Bundesliga (Relegation Group: )
