Result
1:1
09/11/2025 at 11:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Bundesliga - Round 13
- Referee: Ebner S. (Aut)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Austria | Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1 |
 Croatia | SportKlub 5 |
 Germany | Sky Go Germany |
 North-macedonia | MaxTV GO |
 Russia | TV Start |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 1x2, Arena Sport 3 |
 Slovakia | Arena sport 2 |
 Slovenia | SportKlub 3 |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.31 | 1.16 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 45% | 55% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (256/353) | 74% (325/438) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.31 | 1.16 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.06 | 1.15 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 12 | 5 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 8 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 11 | 3 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 20 | 8 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (256/353) | 74% (325/438) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 25% (13/51) | 53% (32/60) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 68% (98/144) | 57% (65/114) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 21% (3/14) | 31% (4/13) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.59 | 0.52 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 26 | 18 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 38% (6/16) | 62% (16/26) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 50 | 75 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 31 | 39 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 11 | 14 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.15 | 1.06 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.15 | 0.06 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 44', Ratkov P. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', 1 - 0, Grgic L. ⚽, Kiteishvili O. (A),
- 61', Malone M. ↓, Kayombo A. ↑,
- 62', Kitano S. ↓, Yeo M. K. ↑,
- 62', Bischoff C. ↓, Vertessen Y. ↑,
- 66', 1 - 1, Vertessen Y. ⚽, Yeo M. K. (A),
- 67', Lainer S. 🟨,
- 72', Lainer S. ↓, Trummer T. ↑,
- 75', Grgic L. ↓, Jatta S. ↑,
- 75', Chukwuani T. ↓, Rozga F. ↑,
- 81', Diabate S. 🟨,
- 82', Kiteishvili O. ↓, Hodl J. ↑,
- 82', Malic A. ↓, Mitchell J. ↑,
- 83', Baidoo E. ↓, Aguilar E. ↑,
- 83', Kjaergaard M. ↓, Bidstrup M. ↑,
- 90+4', Mitchell J. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Sturm Graz
40.4% | Draw
26.3% | Red Bull Salzburg
33.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Sturm Graz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)Red Bull Salzburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sturm Graz than the current prediction. (+0.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Red Bull Salzburg than the current prediction. (+0.8%)
Sturm Graz - Red Bull Salzburg Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.37 ↑
(2.35) |
3.63 ↓
(3.75) |
2.88 ↑
(2.73) |
4.5%
(5.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Sturm Graz - Red Bull Salzburg?
Users Predictions:
12 users predict this event. Sturm will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). Salzburg will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sturm: 30.4% – 86.2%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Salzburg (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 2 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga (Championship Group: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga (Championship Group: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sturm won 4.
- Sturm is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Salzburg is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- Recently, Salzburg has had a series of home games.
- The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
- There will not play in Sturm: Beganovic B.
(Injury)
- There will not play in Salzburg: Bidstrup M.
(Hamstring Injury)
Kawamura T.
(Knee Injury)
Konate K.
(Knee Injury)
Mellberg J.
(Knee Injury)
Omoregie J.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Onisiwo K.
(Muscle Injury)
- There are questionable in Salzburg: Alajbegovic K.
(Inactive)
Schlager A.
(Hip Injury)
Sulzbacher V.
(Ankle Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sturm won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 33:33. (average 1.7:1.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, Sturm won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 17:15. (average 1.9:1.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Sturm Graz won against Red Bull Salzburg?
Sturm Graz has won 6 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Red Bull Salzburg won against Sturm Graz?
Red Bull Salzburg has won 4 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Sturm Graz - Red Bull Salzburg were as follows:
20.09.2025
Red Bull Salzburg
-
Sturm Graz
0:2
09.05.2025
Sturm Graz
-
Red Bull Salzburg
4:2
13.04.2025
Red Bull Salzburg
-
Sturm Graz
1:2
02.03.2025
Red Bull Salzburg
-
Sturm Graz
3:1
06.10.2024
Sturm Graz
-
Red Bull Salzburg
5:0
Latest results of Sturm Graz
Latest results of Red Bull Salzburg
Austrian Bundesliga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Salzburg ✔ | 20 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 42:25 | 17 | 36 |
| 2 | Sturm Graz | 20 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 29:24 | 5 | 34 |
| 3 | LASK | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 27:27 | 0 | 33 |
| 4 | Austria Vienna | 20 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 30:28 | 2 | 32 |
| 5 | Hartberg | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 28:23 | 5 | 31 |
| 6 | SK Rapid | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 24:24 | 0 | 29 |
| 7 | Altach | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 21:20 | 1 | 28 |
| 8 | Ried | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 25:26 | -1 | 28 |
| 9 | Wolfsberger AC | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 28:27 | 1 | 25 |
| 10 | Tirol | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 26:28 | -2 | 25 |
| 11 | Grazer AK ✔ | 20 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 20:33 | -13 | 17 |
| 12 | BW Linz ✔ | 20 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 17:32 | -15 | 14 |
Promotion ~ Bundesliga (Championship Group: )
Bundesliga (Relegation Group: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Salzburg is Qualified for Bundesliga (Championship Group )
Grazer AK is Bundesliga (Relegation Group )
BW Linz is Bundesliga (Relegation Group )
