Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

09/05/2025 at 13:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Merkur-Arena (Graz).

Bundesliga - Championship Group - Round 30
Referee: Weinberger J. (Aut)
Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1
Germany	Sky Go Germany
Israel	5 PLUS Israel
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Russia	TV Start
Serbia	Arena Sport 5
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
Ukraine	Sport 1, Sport 3
World	Onefootball, Sport 1 Baltic

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
2.27	1.73
Ball Possession
41%	59%
Total shots
16	21
Shots on target
5	6
Big Chances
4	3
Corner Kicks
4	5
Passes
63% (179/283)	76% (316/415)
Yellow Cards
0	1
Expected Goals (xG)
2.27	1.73
xG on target (xGOT)
2.47	0.97
Total shots
16	21
Shots on target
5	6
Shots off target
6	8
Blocked Shots
5	7
Shots inside the Box
14	15
Shots outside the Box
2	5
Hit the Woodwork
1	0
Headed Goals
0	1
Big Chances
4	3
Corner Kicks
4	5
Touches in opposition box
23	32
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
2	1
Free Kicks
8	10
Passes
63% (179/283)	76% (316/415)
Long passes
36% (29/80)	39% (21/54)
Passes in final third
47% (53/112)	66% (87/132)
Crosses
36% (4/11)	28% (7/25)
Expected assists (xA)
0.53	1.43
Throw-ins
30	32
Fouls
10	8
Tackles
65% (13/20)	68% (13/19)
Duels won
63	62
Clearances
33	30
Interceptions
11	13
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
4	2
xGOT faced
0.97	2.47
Goals prevented
-0.03	-0.54

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (2 - 1)
18', 1 - 0, Terzic A. (Own goal),
20', 2 - 0, Boving W. ⚽,
45', 2 - 1, Nene D. ⚽, Gloukh O. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
48', 3 - 1, Wuthrich G. ⚽,
56', Sulzbacher V. ↓, Onisiwo K. ↑,
56', Mellberg J. ↓, Baidoo E. ↑,
59', 3 - 2, Aiwu E. (Own goal),
67', Horvat T. ↓, Chukwuani T. ↑,
67', Yalcouye M. ↓, Karic E. ↑,
68', Gadou J. 🟨,
69', Nene D. ↓, Ratkov P. ↑,
72', 4 - 2, Chukwuani T. ⚽, Karic E. (A),
76', Grgic L. ↓, Camara A. ↑,
87', Lavalee D. ↓, Hierlander S. ↑,
87', Boving W. ↓, Hodl J. ↑,

Chances of winning

Sturm Graz
34.5%

Draw
27.7%

Red Bull Salzburg
37.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.6%

26.5%

36.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.5%

26.6%

37%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sturm Graz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Red Bull Salzburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sturm Graz than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Red Bull Salzburg than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Sturm Graz - Red Bull Salzburg Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.73 ↑ (2.6)	3.42 ↓ (3.59)	2.49 ↓ (2.58)	6% (5.2%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

What is the prediction for Sturm Graz - Red Bull Salzburg?

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Sturm will win (votes: 8 - 42.1%). Salzburg will win (votes: 5 - 26.3%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 31.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sturm: 19.9% – 64.3%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 6 high ROI users predict this event. Sturm (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sturm won 3.
The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
There will not play in Sturm: Beganovic B. (Red Card) Borkovic A. (Knee Injury) Geyrhofer N. (Knee Injury) Jatta S. (Ankle Injury) Mayulu F. (Muscle Injury)
There will not play in Salzburg: Capaldo N. (Toe Injury) Guindo D. (Inactive) Kjaergaard M. (Ankle Injury) Konate K. (Knee Injury) Onisiwo K. (Knee Injury) Yeo M. K. (Knee Injury)
There are questionable in Salzburg: Aguilar E. (Muscle Injury) Kawamura T. (Collarbone injury)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sturm won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 28:38. (average 1.4:1.9).
Including home matches between the teams, Sturm won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 13:17. (average 1.4:1.9).

How many head-to-head matches has Sturm Graz won against Red Bull Salzburg?

Sturm Graz has won 4 of their last 12 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Red Bull Salzburg won against Sturm Graz?

Red Bull Salzburg has won 4 of their last 12 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Sturm Graz - Red Bull Salzburg were as follows:

13.04.2025 Red Bull Salzburg - Sturm Graz 1:2

02.03.2025 Red Bull Salzburg - Sturm Graz 3:1

06.10.2024 Sturm Graz - Red Bull Salzburg 5:0

28.04.2024 Red Bull Salzburg - Sturm Graz 2:2

04.04.2024 Red Bull Salzburg - Sturm Graz 3:4

Latest results of Sturm Graz

04.05.2025 Blau-Weiss Linz - Sturm Graz 0:1 ✺

27.04.2025 Sturm Graz - Austria Wien 0:1 ✺

23.04.2025 Austria Wien - Sturm Graz 2:1 ✺

20.04.2025 Sturm Graz - Blau-Weiss Linz 2:0 ✺

13.04.2025 Red Bull Salzburg - Sturm Graz 1:2 ✺

Latest results of Red Bull Salzburg

04.05.2025 Red Bull Salzburg - Austria Wien 2:0 ✺

27.04.2025 Wolfsberger - Red Bull Salzburg 2:1 ✺

23.04.2025 Red Bull Salzburg - Wolfsberger 1:1 ✺

20.04.2025 Austria Wien - Red Bull Salzburg 1:3 ✺

13.04.2025 Red Bull Salzburg - Sturm Graz 1:2 ✺

Austrian Bundesliga Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Tirol	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
2	Grazer AK	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
3	Wolfsberger AC	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
4	Hartberg	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
5	Austria Vienna	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
6	LASK	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
7	SK Rapid	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
8	Salzburg	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
9	Ried	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
10	Altach	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
11	Sturm Graz	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
12	BW Linz	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Promotion ~ Bundesliga (Championship Group: )
Bundesliga (Relegation Group: )