Result
1:1
20/03/2026 at 14:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Bundesliga - Championship Group - Round 24
- Referee: Weinberger J. (Aut)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Austria | Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1 |
 Germany | Sky Go Germany |
 Israel | 5 GOLD Israel |
 Slovakia | Arena sport 2 |
 Slovenia | SportKlub 6 |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.52 | 1.30 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 47% | 53% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 54% (163/300) | 58% (195/334) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.52 | 1.30 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.17 | 0.09 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 9 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 11 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 22 | 26 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 54% (163/300) | 58% (195/334) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 31% (20/65) | 31% (28/90) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 45% (43/96) | 57% (73/129) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 58% (7/12) | 30% (6/20) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.35 | 1.43 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 36 | 32 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 80% (8/10) | 78% (18/23) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 57 | 77 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 36 | 22 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.09 | 0.17 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.91 | -0.83 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 13', Mamageishvili G. 🟨,
- 32', 0 - 1, Vertessen Y. ⚽, Bidstrup M. (A),
- 38', Vertessen Y. 🟨,
- 39', Mitchell J. ↓, Aiwu E. ↑,
- 45+5', 1 - 1, Gorenc Stankovic J. ⚽, Vallci A. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 51', Kiteishvili O. 🟨,
- 70', Mamageishvili G. ↓, Malone M. ↑,
- 70', Hodl J. ↓, Rozga F. ↑,
- 74', Drexler T. 🟨,
- 74', Vertessen Y. ↓, Kitano S. ↑,
- 74', Fosso R. 🟨,
- 75', Baidoo E. ↓, Redzic D. ↑,
- 77', Chase A. 🟨,
- 83', Kratzig F. ↓, Yeo M. K. ↑,
- 85', Konate K. ↓, Onisiwo K. ↑,
- 87', Diabate S. 🟨,
- 87', Fosso R. ↓, Weinhandl L. ↑,
- 87', Jatta S. ↓, Kayombo A. ↑,
- 90+1', Chase A. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Sturm Graz
26.5% | Draw
26.2% | Red Bull Salzburg
47.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Sturm Graz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sturm Graz's form might have worsened.Red Bull Salzburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Red Bull Salzburg's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sturm Graz than the current prediction. (+7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sturm Graz, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Red Bull Salzburg than the current prediction. (-8.3%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Red Bull Salzburg, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Sturm Graz - Red Bull Salzburg Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.54 ↑
(2.88) |
3.57 ↑
(3.43) |
1.99 ↓
(2.3) |
6.7%
(7.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Sturm Graz - Red Bull Salzburg?
Users Predictions:
15 users predict this event. Sturm will win (votes: 5 - 33.3%). Salzburg will win (votes: 9 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 6.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Salzburg: 35.2% – 84.8%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Sturm (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Salzburg (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- DC - Sturm (1.81) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- AH 0 - Sturm (2.24) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DNB - Sturm (2.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 7 high ROI users predict this event. Sturm (votes: 6 - 85.7%). Salzburg (votes: 1 - 14.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sturm won 3.
- Sturm is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Salzburg is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Salzburg could have a small edge in this match.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sturm won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 33:31. (average 1.7:1.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Sturm won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:13. (average 1.9:1.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Sturm Graz won against Red Bull Salzburg?
Sturm Graz has won 6 of their last 15 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Red Bull Salzburg won against Sturm Graz?
Red Bull Salzburg has won 4 of their last 15 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Sturm Graz - Red Bull Salzburg were as follows:
09.11.2025
Sturm Graz
-
Red Bull Salzburg
1:1
20.09.2025
Red Bull Salzburg
-
Sturm Graz
0:2
09.05.2025
Sturm Graz
-
Red Bull Salzburg
4:2
13.04.2025
Red Bull Salzburg
-
Sturm Graz
1:2
02.03.2025
Red Bull Salzburg
-
Sturm Graz
3:1
Latest results of Sturm Graz
Latest results of Red Bull Salzburg
Austrian Bundesliga Table
Championship Group | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Sturm Graz | 25 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 41:29 | 12 | 26 |
| 2 | Salzburg | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 45:29 | 16 | 22 |
| 3 | SK Rapid | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 31:29 | 2 | 22 |
| 4 | LASK | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 38:35 | 3 | 22 |
| 5 | Austria Vienna | 25 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 38:39 | -1 | 21 |
| 6 | Hartberg | 25 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 30:27 | 3 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
