Result
1:2
17/02/2026 at 14:45 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- League Two - Round 33
- Referee: Hicks C. (Eng)
- Where to Watch on TV:
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 Usa | Paramount+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.98 | 0.74 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 55% | 45% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 66% (268/407) | 68% (233/342) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.98 | 0.74 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.90 | 1.47 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 26 | 20 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 66% (268/407) | 68% (233/342) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 28% (25/88) | 40% (36/89) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 54% (90/167) | 59% (57/96) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 33% (5/15) | 9% (1/11) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.18 | 0.30 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 28 | 26 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 59% (10/17) | 79% (15/19) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 81 | 47 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 27 | 43 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.47 | 0.90 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.53 | -0.10 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 9', 1 - 0, Senior A. ⚽, Shelton M. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 2)
- 50', 1 - 1, Clarke O. ⚽,
- 55', Batty J. ↓, Olakigbe M. ↑,
- 63', 1 - 2, Clarke O. ⚽, Holman F. (A),
- 64', Tshimanga K. ↓, Hawkins O. ↑,
- 68', Hoilett J. ↓, Palmer O. ↑,
- 68', Borland A. ↓, Nichols T. ↑,
- 69', Kanu I. ↓, Howland J. ↑,
- 69', Hartigan A. ↓, Winterburn B. ↑,
- 81', Kizzi J. ↓, Smith K. ↑,
- 81', Shelton M. ↓, Assombalonga B. ↑,
- 84', Winterburn B. 🟨,
- 87', Holman F. ↓, Kirkman B. ↑,
- 87', Wright W. ↓, Mabete F. ↑,
- 90+6', Snowdon J. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Barnet
53.6% | Draw
24.8% | Swindon Town
21.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Barnet has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Barnet's performance.Swindon Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barnet than the current prediction. (-4.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Swindon Town than the current prediction. (+3.2%)
Barnet - Swindon Town Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.75 ↓
(1.91) |
3.77 ↑
(3.48) |
4.33 ↑
(3.6) |
6.7%
(9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Barnet - Swindon Town?
Users Predictions:
15 users predict this event. Barnet will win (votes: 8 - 53.3%). Swindon will win (votes: 5 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 13.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Barnet: 28.1% – 78.5%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Barnet (votes: 1 - 50%). Swindon (votes: 1 - 50%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ League One).
- In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Barnet won 3.
- Right now, both teams are showing solid form.
- Barnet may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Barnet is a strong favorite.
- There will not play in Swindon: Butterworth D.
(Inactive)
Glatzel P.
(Inactive)
Knight-Lebel J.
(Inactive)
Minturn H.
(Groin Injury)
Smith H.
(Knee Injury)
Tafazolli R.
(Injury)
Wilson-Brown T.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Barnet: Osadebe E.
(Inactive)
Stead C.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Swindon: Bodin B.
(Inactive)
- In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Barnet won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:3. (average 1.2:0.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Barnet won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.3:0.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Barnet won against Swindon Town?
Barnet has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Swindon Town won against Barnet?
Swindon Town has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Barnet - Swindon Town were as follows:
19.08.2025
Swindon Town
-
Barnet
0:2
Latest results of Swindon Town
English League Two Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Bromley | 35 | 19 | 12 | 4 | 58:35 | 23 | 69 |
| 2 | Cambridge Utd | 34 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 49:27 | 22 | 64 |
| 3 | MK Dons | 34 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 63:34 | 29 | 62 |
| 4 | Swindon | 35 | 19 | 5 | 11 | 57:41 | 16 | 62 |
| 5 | Notts Co | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 52:33 | 19 | 61 |
| 6 | Chesterfield | 35 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 55:44 | 11 | 56 |
| 7 | Crewe | 35 | 16 | 8 | 11 | 52:41 | 11 | 56 |
| 8 | Grimsby | 34 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 49:38 | 11 | 55 |
| 9 | Salford | 34 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 47:46 | 1 | 55 |
| 10 | Barnet | 35 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 44:37 | 7 | 53 |
| 11 | Walsall | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 42:37 | 5 | 53 |
| 12 | Colchester | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 48:38 | 10 | 49 |
| 13 | Fleetwood | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 44:42 | 2 | 48 |
| 14 | Oldham | 33 | 11 | 13 | 9 | 36:30 | 6 | 46 |
| 15 | Accrington | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 37:36 | 1 | 46 |
| 16 | Gillingham | 33 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 41:41 | 0 | 44 |
| 17 | Shrewsbury | 35 | 10 | 8 | 17 | 34:54 | -20 | 38 |
| 18 | Cheltenham | 33 | 10 | 6 | 17 | 34:55 | -21 | 36 |
| 19 | Tranmere | 35 | 9 | 8 | 18 | 47:62 | -15 | 35 |
| 20 | Bristol Rovers | 34 | 9 | 4 | 21 | 33:57 | -24 | 31 |
| 21 | Crawley | 35 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 33:56 | -23 | 28 |
| 22 | Newport | 35 | 7 | 7 | 21 | 35:61 | -26 | 28 |
| 23 | Barrow | 33 | 7 | 6 | 20 | 33:51 | -18 | 27 |
| 24 | Harrogate | 35 | 6 | 9 | 20 | 25:52 | -27 | 27 |
Promotion ~ League One
Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Relegation ~ National League
