Barnet vs Swindon Town – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

17/02/2026 at 14:45 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

The Hive Stadium (London).

League Two - Round 33
Referee: Hicks C. (Eng)
Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	Paramount+

Match Stats


Expected goals (xG)
0.98	0.74
Ball possession
55%	45%
Total shots
8	9
Shots on target
2	4
Big chances
1	2
Corner kicks
3	1
Passes
66% (268/407)	68% (233/342)
Yellow cards
1	1
Expected goals (xG)
0.98	0.74
xG on target (xGOT)
0.90	1.47
Total shots
8	9
Shots on target
2	4
Shots off target
4	3
Blocked shots
2	2
Shots inside the box
6	6
Shots outside the box
2	3
Hit the woodwork
1	0
Big chances
1	2
Corner kicks
3	1
Touches in opposition box
26	20
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
3	2
Free kicks
10	11
Passes
66% (268/407)	68% (233/342)
Long passes
28% (25/88)	40% (36/89)
Passes in final third
54% (90/167)	59% (57/96)
Crosses
33% (5/15)	9% (1/11)
Expected assists (xA)
1.18	0.30
Throw ins
28	26
Fouls
11	10
Tackles
59% (10/17)	79% (15/19)
Duels won
81	47
Clearances
27	43
Interceptions
6	6
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper saves
2	1
xGOT faced
1.47	0.90
Goals prevented
-0.53	-0.10

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Senior A. ⚽, Shelton M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
50', 1 - 1, Clarke O. ⚽,
55', Batty J. ↓, Olakigbe M. ↑,
63', 1 - 2, Clarke O. ⚽, Holman F. (A),
64', Tshimanga K. ↓, Hawkins O. ↑,
68', Hoilett J. ↓, Palmer O. ↑,
68', Borland A. ↓, Nichols T. ↑,
69', Kanu I. ↓, Howland J. ↑,
69', Hartigan A. ↓, Winterburn B. ↑,
81', Kizzi J. ↓, Smith K. ↑,
81', Shelton M. ↓, Assombalonga B. ↑,
84', Winterburn B. 🟨,
87', Holman F. ↓, Kirkman B. ↑,
87', Wright W. ↓, Mabete F. ↑,
90+6', Snowdon J. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Barnet
53.6%

Draw
24.8%

Swindon Town
21.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.1%

26.4%

25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.5%

25.7%

24.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barnet has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Barnet's performance.

Swindon Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barnet than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Swindon Town than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Barnet - Swindon Town Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↓ (1.91)	3.77 ↑ (3.48)	4.33 ↑ (3.6)	6.7% (9%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

What is the prediction for Barnet - Swindon Town?

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Barnet will win (votes: 8 - 53.3%). Swindon will win (votes: 5 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 13.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Barnet: 28.1% – 78.5%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Barnet (votes: 1 - 50%). Swindon (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.

Preview Facts

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ League One).
In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Barnet won 3.
Right now, both teams are showing solid form.
Barnet may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, Barnet is a strong favorite.
There will not play in Swindon: Butterworth D. (Inactive) Glatzel P. (Inactive) Knight-Lebel J. (Inactive) Minturn H. (Groin Injury) Smith H. (Knee Injury) Tafazolli R. (Injury) Wilson-Brown T. (Inactive)
There are questionable in Barnet: Osadebe E. (Inactive) Stead C. (Inactive)
There are questionable in Swindon: Bodin B. (Inactive)
In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Barnet won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:3. (average 1.2:0.5).
Including home matches between the teams, Barnet won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.3:0.7).

How many head-to-head matches has Barnet won against Swindon Town?

Barnet has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Swindon Town won against Barnet?

Swindon Town has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Barnet - Swindon Town were as follows:

19.08.2025 Swindon Town - Barnet 0:2

Latest results of Barnet

14.02.2026 Barnet - Cheltenham Town 0:0 ✺

07.02.2026 Walsall - Barnet 1:3 ✺

03.02.2026 Barnet - Crewe Alexandra 1:1 ✺

31.01.2026 Shrewsbury Town - Barnet 0:0 ✺

27.01.2026 Barnet - Tranmere Rovers 1:0 ✺

Latest results of Swindon Town

14.02.2026 Shrewsbury Town - Swindon Town 3:1 ✺

11.02.2026 Swindon Town - Newport County 2:0 ✺

07.02.2026 Swindon Town - Oldham Athletic 3:0 ✺

03.02.2026 Harrogate Town - Swindon Town 0:1 ✺

31.01.2026 Swindon Town - Barrow 3:1 ✺

English League Two Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Bromley	39	22	13	4	62:36	26	79
2	MK Dons	39	21	11	7	76:40	36	74
3	Cambridge Utd	38	20	12	6	56:28	28	72
4	Notts Co	38	21	7	10	65:39	26	70
5	Swindon	39	21	6	12	63:45	18	69
6	Salford	39	21	4	14	54:48	6	67
7	Grimsby	38	17	11	10	56:40	16	62
8	Chesterfield	39	16	14	9	61:52	9	62
9	Crewe	39	17	9	13	58:47	11	60
10	Walsall	39	17	9	13	48:41	7	60
11	Oldham	37	15	13	9	44:31	13	58
12	Barnet	39	15	12	12	49:43	6	57
13	Fleetwood	39	14	12	13	48:46	2	54
14	Colchester	38	14	11	13	50:41	9	53
15	Accrington	38	13	9	16	38:42	-4	48
16	Gillingham	38	11	12	15	44:56	-12	45
17	Bristol Rovers	39	13	4	22	40:60	-20	43
18	Cheltenham	38	11	9	18	43:65	-22	42
19	Shrewsbury	39	11	8	20	37:63	-26	41
20	Tranmere	39	9	9	21	48:69	-21	36
21	Crawley	39	6	13	20	36:60	-24	31
22	Newport	39	8	7	24	39:67	-28	31
23	Harrogate	39	7	9	23	29:58	-29	30
24	Barrow	38	7	8	23	36:63	-27	29

      Promotion ~ League One
      Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
      Relegation ~ National League