Result
1:1
28/03/2026 at 11:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- League Two - Round 40
- Referee: Barlow M. (Eng)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 United-kingdom | Sky Sports+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.54 | 0.88 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 55% | 45% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 69% (255/370) | 61% (176/288) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.54 | 0.88 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.59 | 1.42 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 1 | 7 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 9 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 9 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 16 | 28 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 17 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 69% (255/370) | 61% (176/288) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 40% (29/73) | 37% (30/82) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 55% (59/108) | 59% (61/103) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 35% (6/17) | 18% (5/28) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.86 | 0.51 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 24 | 33 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 8 | 17 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 53% (8/15) | 65% (11/17) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 55 | 45 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 31 | 26 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.42 | 1.59 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.42 | 0.59 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 18', Neal H. 🟨,
- 25', Tafazolli R. 🟨,
- 28', Kirkman B. 🟨,
- 41', Potter F. 🟨,
- 45+3', 1 - 0, Bodin B. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 57', 1 - 1, Helm M. ⚽, Evans C. (A),
- 61', Bodin B. ↓, Holman F. ↑,
- 61', Kirkman B. ↓, Batty J. ↑,
- 69', Clark M. 🟨,
- 76', Kilkenny G. ↓, Borland A. ↑,
- 76', Palmer O. ↓, Nichols T. ↑,
- 77', Tafazolli R. ↓, Ball J. ↑,
- 78', Clark M. ↓, Powell J. ↑,
- 82', Virtue-Thick M. ↓, Morrison G. ↑,
- 86', Davies W. 🟨,
- 86', Knight-Lebel J. 🟨,
- 88', Evans C. ↓, Norwood J. ↑,
- 88', Davies W. ↓, Osong D. E. ↑,
Chances of winning
Swindon Town
45.3% | Draw
27% | Fleetwood Town
27.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Swindon Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)Fleetwood Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Swindon Town than the current prediction. (+3.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fleetwood Town than the current prediction. (-1.5%)
Swindon Town - Fleetwood Town Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.07 ↑
(1.97) |
3.45 ↓
(3.59) |
3.38 ↓
(3.44) |
6.9%
(7.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Swindon Town - Fleetwood Town?
Users Predictions:
Swindon Town will win
(8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 13).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Swindon won 3.
- Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
- Swindon will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Swindon: Butterworth D.
(Inactive)
Clarke O.
(Inactive)
Glatzel P.
(Inactive)
Minturn H.
(Groin Injury)
Smith H.
(Knee Injury)
Snowdon J.
(Injury)
Wilson-Brown T.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Fleetwood: Hume D.
(Inactive)
McCann L.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Swindon: Ball J.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Fleetwood: Bolton J.
(Inactive)
Mullarkey T.
(Inactive)
- In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Swindon won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:12. (average 1.5:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Swindon won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:4. (average 1.2:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Swindon Town won against Fleetwood Town?
Swindon Town has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Fleetwood Town won against Swindon Town?
Fleetwood Town has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Swindon Town - Fleetwood Town were as follows:
15.11.2025
Fleetwood Town
-
Swindon Town
1:1
05.04.2025
Fleetwood Town
-
Swindon Town
0:4
07.12.2024
Swindon Town
-
Fleetwood Town
3:1
Latest results of Swindon Town
Latest results of Fleetwood Town
English League Two Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Bromley | 43 | 23 | 14 | 6 | 68:43 | 25 | 83 |
| 2 | MK Dons | 43 | 22 | 13 | 8 | 79:43 | 36 | 79 |
| 3 | Cambridge Utd | 42 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 62:31 | 31 | 77 |
| 4 | Notts Co | 43 | 23 | 7 | 13 | 71:49 | 22 | 76 |
| 5 | Swindon | 43 | 22 | 8 | 13 | 67:51 | 16 | 74 |
| 6 | Salford | 43 | 23 | 5 | 15 | 57:50 | 7 | 74 |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 42 | 18 | 15 | 9 | 64:53 | 11 | 69 |
| 8 | Grimsby | 41 | 19 | 11 | 11 | 62:45 | 17 | 68 |
| 9 | Barnet | 43 | 18 | 13 | 12 | 60:49 | 11 | 67 |
| 10 | Crewe | 43 | 19 | 9 | 15 | 63:53 | 10 | 66 |
| 11 | Oldham | 42 | 17 | 14 | 11 | 52:36 | 16 | 65 |
| 12 | Walsall | 43 | 17 | 11 | 15 | 52:50 | 2 | 62 |
| 13 | Colchester | 42 | 16 | 12 | 14 | 56:45 | 11 | 60 |
| 14 | Fleetwood | 43 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 53:54 | -1 | 58 |
| 15 | Bristol Rovers | 43 | 17 | 4 | 22 | 49:63 | -14 | 55 |
| 16 | Accrington | 42 | 14 | 9 | 19 | 41:48 | -7 | 51 |
| 17 | Gillingham | 42 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 48:60 | -12 | 50 |
| 18 | Shrewsbury | 43 | 13 | 8 | 22 | 40:66 | -26 | 47 |
| 19 | Cheltenham | 41 | 12 | 10 | 19 | 48:67 | -19 | 46 |
| 20 | Tranmere | 42 | 9 | 10 | 23 | 49:72 | -23 | 37 |
| 21 | Crawley | 43 | 8 | 13 | 22 | 41:65 | -24 | 37 |
| 22 | Newport | 43 | 10 | 7 | 26 | 43:73 | -30 | 37 |
| 23 | Barrow | 42 | 8 | 9 | 25 | 40:68 | -28 | 33 |
| 24 | Harrogate | 43 | 8 | 9 | 26 | 35:66 | -31 | 33 |
Promotion ~ League One
Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Relegation ~ National League
