Result
4:1
06/12/2025 at 12:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Super League - Round 16
- Referee: Schnyder U. (Sui)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Switzerland | Blue Sport D1, Blue Sport D1 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.64 | 1.59 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 43% | 57% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 25 | 16 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 11 | 4 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (222/302) | 81% (349/429) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.64 | 1.59 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.70 | 0.29 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 25 | 16 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 11 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 9 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 16 | 10 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 6 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 43 | 21 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (222/302) | 81% (349/429) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 31% (15/48) | 56% (35/63) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 66% (97/147) | 70% (99/142) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 35% (12/34) | 38% (5/13) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 2.08 | 0.94 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 21 | 16 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 68% (13/19) | 77% (10/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 59 | 43 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 21 | 42 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.29 | 2.70 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.71 | -1.30 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (3 - 0)
- 18', 1 - 0, Labeau B. ⚽, Ibayi C. (A),
- 33', Bajrami A. 🟨,
- 34', 2 - 0, Montolio G. ⚽, Fehr F. (A),
- 36', 3 - 0, Bamert J. ⚽, Fehr F. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 57', Burki M. 🟨,
- 58', 4 - 0, Meichtry F. ⚽, Burki M. (A),
- 59', Bajrami A. ↓, Ottiger S. ↑,
- 59', Silva Ferreira L. M. ↓, Villiger L. ↑,
- 60', Wyss S. ↓, Spadanuda K. ↑,
- 65', Janjicic V. ↓, Rupp N. ↑,
- 70', Grbic A. ↓, Kabwit O. ↑,
- 71', Ibayi C. ↓, Gutbub M. ↑,
- 71', Montolio G. ↓, Balaruban A. ↑,
- 80', Owusu T. ↓, Winkler L. ↑,
- 80', Meichtry F. ↓, Ilic A. ↑,
- 80', Labeau B. ↓, Stewart L. ↑,
- 87', Ilic A. 🟨,
- 90+2', 4 - 1, Villiger L. ⚽, Ciganiks A. (A),
Chances of winning
Thun
43.5% | Draw
27.2% | Luzern
29.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Thun - Luzern Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.17 ↑
(2.05) |
3.45 ↓
(3.79) |
3.2 ↓
(3.25) |
6.3%
(5.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Thun - Luzern?
Users Predictions:
18 users predict this event. Thun will win (votes: 14 - 77.8%). Luzern will win (votes: 2 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Thun: 58.6% – 97%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Thun will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: ) and 9 in the zone Super League (Relegation Group: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Thun won 2.
- In recent matches, Thun has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Luzern has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- There will not play in Thun: Bertone L.
(Yellow Cards)
Kait M.
(Foot Injury)
Rastoder E.
(Red Card)
Ziswiler N.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Luzern: Ciganiks A.
(Inactive)
Dorn P.
(Inactive)
Lofgren J.
(Hernia)
Zimmermann M.
(Hip Injury)
- There are questionable in Luzern: Von Moos J.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Thun won 9 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 27:26. (average 1.4:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Thun won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 15:14. (average 1.4:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Thun won against Luzern?
Thun has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Luzern won against Thun?
Luzern has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Thun - Luzern were as follows:
09.08.2025
Luzern
-
Thun
1:2
16.09.2023
Thun
-
Luzern
1:3
31.01.2023
Thun
-
Luzern
3:2
Swiss Super League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Thun ✔ | 18 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 35:21 | 14 | 37 |
| 2 | St. Gallen | 18 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 36:21 | 15 | 34 |
| 3 | Basel | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 27:19 | 8 | 31 |
| 4 | Lugano | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 25:23 | 2 | 30 |
| 5 | Young Boys | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 38:35 | 3 | 29 |
| 6 | Sion | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 27:23 | 4 | 27 |
| 7 | Zurich | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 26:31 | -5 | 24 |
| 8 | Lausanne | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 27:23 | 4 | 21 |
| 9 | Servette | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 29:35 | -6 | 19 |
| 10 | Luzern | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 31:35 | -4 | 18 |
| 11 | Grasshoppers | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 25:33 | -8 | 17 |
| 12 | Winterthur ✔ | 18 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 23:50 | -27 | 10 |
Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: )
Super League (Relegation Group: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Thun is Qualified for Super League (Championship Group )
Winterthur is Super League (Relegation Group )
