Result
2:1
28/02/2026 at 12:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Super League - Round 27
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 6 |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 1x2 |
 Switzerland | Blue Sport 4, Blue Sport 4 |
 Ukraine | Sport 1 |
 World | Sport 1 Baltic |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.12 | 1.44 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 43% | 57% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 18 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 68% (197/289) | 75% (292/390) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.12 | 1.44 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.13 | 1.34 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 18 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 9 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 9 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 40 | 27 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 68% (197/289) | 75% (292/390) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 26% (16/62) | 48% (33/69) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 52% (62/120) | 67% (82/123) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 10% (2/21) | 8% (2/24) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.43 | 0.67 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 18 | 32 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 86% (6/7) | 64% (7/11) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 48 | 40 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 30 | 54 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.34 | 1.13 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.34 | -0.87 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 1)
- 24', 1 - 0, Imeri K. ⚽, Matoshi V. (A),
- 29', 2 - 0, Rastoder E. ⚽,
- 43', 2 - 1, Kabwit O. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 58', Villiger L. ↓, Von Moos J. ↑,
- 58', Silva Ferreira L. M. ↓, Winkler L. ↑,
- 60', Imeri K. ↓, Roth J. ↑,
- 60', Heule M. ↓, Montolio G. ↑,
- 70', Labeau B. ↓, Dursun F. ↑,
- 70', Matoshi V. ↓, Meichtry F. ↑,
- 73', Abe T. ↓, Karweina S. ↑,
- 82', Freimann B. 🟨,
- 84', Rastoder E. ↓, Dahler L. ↑,
- 85', Steffen N. 🟨,
- 86', Kabwit O. ↓, Vasovic A. ↑,
- 90', Vasic V. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Thun
52.1% | Draw
23.3% | Luzern
24.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Thun has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)Luzern has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Thun than the current prediction. (+7.8%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Thun, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luzern than the current prediction. (-5.3%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Luzern, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Thun - Luzern Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.8 ↑
(1.63) |
4.05 ↓
(4.08) |
3.84 ↓
(4.61) |
6.2%
(7.6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
What is the prediction for Thun - Luzern?
Users Predictions:
13 users predict this event. Thun will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Luzern will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Thun: 35% – 88%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH 0 - Luzern (2.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- DC - Thun (1.27) (votes: 1 - 50%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- DNB - Thun (1.39) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Thun will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 8 high ROI users predict this event. Thun (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Luzern (votes: 3 - 37.5%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: ) and 7 in the zone Super League (Relegation Group: )).
- Thun is Qualified for Super League (Championship Group )
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Thun won 3.
- Thun has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).
- Luzern is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Luzern may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Thun is seen as the favorite.
- There will not play in Thun: Ziswiler N.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Luzern: Spadanuda K.
(Injury)
Zimmermann M.
(Hip Injury)
- There are questionable in Thun: Janjicic V.
(Inactive)
Meichtry F.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Luzern: Knezevic S.
(Inactive)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Thun won 10 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 30:25. (average 1.5:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Thun won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 18:13. (average 1.6:1.2).
How many head-to-head matches has Thun won against Luzern?
Thun has won 3 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Luzern won against Thun?
Luzern has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Thun - Luzern were as follows:
06.12.2025
Thun
-
Luzern
4:1
09.08.2025
Luzern
-
Thun
1:2
16.09.2023
Thun
-
Luzern
1:3
31.01.2023
Thun
-
Luzern
3:2
Swiss Super League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Thun ✔ | 30 | 23 | 2 | 5 | 71:33 | 38 | 71 |
| 2 | St. Gallen ✔ | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 59:36 | 23 | 55 |
| 3 | Lugano ✔ | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 47:37 | 10 | 50 |
| 4 | Basel ✔ | 30 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 45:39 | 6 | 49 |
| 5 | Sion | 30 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 43:34 | 9 | 45 |
| 6 | Young Boys | 30 | 13 | 6 | 11 | 60:55 | 5 | 45 |
| 7 | Luzern | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 58:56 | 2 | 36 |
| 8 | Lausanne | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 45:49 | -4 | 36 |
| 9 | Servette ✔ | 30 | 7 | 12 | 11 | 48:56 | -8 | 33 |
| 10 | Zurich ✔ | 30 | 9 | 4 | 17 | 42:59 | -17 | 31 |
| 11 | Grasshoppers ✔ | 30 | 5 | 9 | 16 | 38:56 | -18 | 24 |
| 12 | Winterthur ✔ | 30 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 34:80 | -46 | 19 |
Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: )
Super League (Relegation Group: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Thun is Qualified for Super League (Championship Group )
St. Gallen is Qualified for Super League (Championship Group )
Lugano is Qualified for Super League (Championship Group )
Basel is Qualified for Super League (Championship Group )
Servette is Super League (Relegation Group )
Zurich is Super League (Relegation Group )
Grasshoppers is Super League (Relegation Group )
Winterthur is Super League (Relegation Group )
