Result
0:0
17/01/2026 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Clausura - Round 3
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Mexico | Azteca 7, Azteca Deportes, FOX One, Fox Sports |
 Usa | Estrella TV, Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports 2, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, Fox, NBC Universo, Telemundo |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.26 | 0.45 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 50% | 50% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (263/362) | 74% (271/366) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.26 | 0.45 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.53 | 0.34 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 8 | 21 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 24 | 19 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (263/362) | 74% (271/366) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 47% (28/60) | 37% (22/59) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 53% (48/90) | 64% (77/121) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 23% (3/13) | 0% (0/14) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.37 | 0.69 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 30 | 18 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 19 | 24 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 68% (15/22) | 81% (13/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 58 | 53 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 27 | 27 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 13 | 19 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.34 | 0.53 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.34 | -0.47 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 45+2', Angulo J. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 54', Sanchez J. 🟨,
- 57', Ibanez N. ↓, Flores M. ↑,
- 59', Perez P. ↓, Helinho ↑,
- 72', Paulinho 🟨,
- 73', Gallardo J. 🟨,
- 76', Angulo J. ↓, Castro N. ↑,
- 76', Simon S. ↓, Cordova S. ↑,
- 76', Sanchez J. 🟨,
- 83', Lainez D. ↓, Antuna U. ↑,
- 89', Correa A. ↓, Vigon J. ↑,
- 90+3', Brunetta J. 🟨,
- 90+3', Guzman N. 🟨,
- 90+6', Cordova S. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Tigres UANL
44.5% | Draw
28.1% | Toluca
27.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Tigres UANL has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tigres UANL than the current prediction. (-2.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (+3.7%)
Tigres UANL - Toluca Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.1 ↓
(2.27) |
3.33 ↓
(3.35) |
3.42 ↑
(2.87) |
6.9%
(8.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Tigres UANL - Toluca?
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Tigres will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Toluca will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tigres: 11.9% – 76.9%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Tigres (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- DC - Tigres (1.30) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.25 - Toluca (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.5 - Toluca (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Tigres (votes: 3 - 50%). Toluca (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tigres won 2.
- In recent matches, Tigres has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Toluca is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- Tigres could have a small edge in this match.
- There will not play in Toluca: Vega A.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Tigres: Angulo J.
(Injury)
Farfan M.
(Injury)
Herrera O.
(Muscle Injury)
- There are questionable in Toluca: Luan
(Muscle Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Tigres won 9 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 32:32. (average 1.6:1.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Tigres won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 19:8. (average 1.9:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Tigres UANL won against Toluca?
Tigres UANL has won 5 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Toluca won against Tigres UANL?
Toluca has won 6 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Tigres UANL - Toluca were as follows:
14.12.2025
Toluca
-
Tigres UANL
3:1
11.12.2025
Tigres UANL
-
Toluca
1:0
26.07.2025
Toluca
-
Tigres UANL
3:4
17.05.2025
Toluca
-
Tigres UANL
3:0
14.05.2025
Tigres UANL
-
Toluca
1:1
Latest results of Tigres UANL
Mexican Liga MX Table
Clausura | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Guadalajara Chivas ✔ | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 28:17 | 11 | 31 |
| 2 | Cruz Azul | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 25:15 | 10 | 28 |
| 3 | Pachuca | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 21:13 | 8 | 28 |
| 4 | UNAM Pumas | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 26:15 | 11 | 27 |
| 5 | Toluca | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 19:8 | 11 | 26 |
| 6 | Tigres UANL | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 22:16 | 6 | 20 |
| 7 | Club America | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 15:13 | 2 | 19 |
| 8 | Atlas | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 14:18 | -4 | 19 |
| 9 | Club Leon | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 16:24 | -8 | 19 |
| 10 | Club Tijuana | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 15:15 | 0 | 18 |
| 11 | Juarez | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 21:24 | -3 | 16 |
| 12 | Necaxa | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 17:20 | -3 | 16 |
| 13 | Monterrey | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 19:17 | 2 | 15 |
| 14 | Queretaro | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 13:18 | -5 | 15 |
| 15 | Atl. San Luis | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 20:22 | -2 | 14 |
| 16 | Puebla | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 11:17 | -6 | 13 |
| 17 | Mazatlan FC | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 16:28 | -12 | 11 |
| 18 | Santos Laguna | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 17:35 | -18 | 9 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Clinched Spots for Teams
Guadalajara Chivas is Qualified for Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
