Result
3:4
26/07/2025 at 21:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Apertura - Round 3
- Referee: Ortiz M. (Mex)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Mexico | Azteca 7, Azteca Deportes |
 South-america | ViX Latin America |
 Usa | TUDN App, TUDN, Univision |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.45 | 1.43 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 54% | 46% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 0 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (366/438) | 79% (305/386) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.45 | 1.43 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.76 | 2.94 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 11 | 10 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 0 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 27 | 21 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (366/438) | 79% (305/386) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 51% (30/59) | 43% (26/61) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 69% (78/113) | 49% (38/78) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 25% (6/24) | 25% (1/4) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.61 | 0.76 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 19 | 17 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 7 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 69% (11/16) | 77% (10/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 36 | 50 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 24 | 28 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 18 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.94 | 1.76 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.06 | -1.24 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 3)
- 11', 1 - 0, Paulinho ⚽, Helinho (A),
- 21', 1 - 1, Pereira F. (Own goal),
- 30', Brunetta J. 🟨,
- 35', 1 - 2, Herrera O. ⚽,
- 40', del Villar E. 🟨,
- 45+1', 1 - 3, Ibanez N. ⚽, Aquino J. (A),
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 46', Isais M. ↓, Gallardo J. ↑,
- 46', del Villar E. ↓, Bruno Mendez ↑,
- 46', Herrera H. ↓, Ruiz M. ↑,
- 58', 1 - 4, Ibanez N. ⚽, Lainez D. (A),
- 65', Castro N. ↓, Vega A. ↑,
- 65', Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ↓, Virgen O. ↑,
- 67', Aquino J. ↓, Lorona V. ↑,
- 73', Gallardo J. 🟨,
- 76', Lainez D. ↓, Joaquim ↑,
- 76', Garza J. ↓, Rodriguez O. ↑,
- 80', Lorona V. 🟨,
- 80', Helinho 🟨,
- 82', Herrera O. ↓, Vigon J. ↑,
- 82', Brunetta J. ↓, Cordova S. ↑,
- 88', 2 - 4, Gallardo J. ⚽, Vega A. (A),
- 90+3', Virgen O. 🟨,
- 90+3', 3 - 4, Ruiz M. ⚽, Vega A. (A),
- 90+6', Romero F. 🟨,
- 90+7', Bruno Mendez 🟨,
Chances of winning
Toluca
55.8% | Draw
25.7% | Tigres UANL
18.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)Tigres UANL has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)
Toluca - Tigres UANL Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.72 ↓
(1.79) |
3.79 ↑
(3.56) |
5.23 ↑
(4.25) |
3.6%
(7.6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Toluca - Tigres UANL?
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Toluca will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Tigres will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Toluca: 50.6% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Toluca (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 3.
- Tigres may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Toluca is a strong favorite.
- There are questionable in Toluca: Helinho
(Knock)
Ruiz M.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Tigres: Flores L.
(Muscle Injury)
Guerrero R.
(Ankle Injury)
- We predict that Toluca will win today's game, with odds of 1.78.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 10 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 29:30. (average 1.5:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Toluca won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 19:8. (average 2.1:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Toluca won against Tigres UANL?
Toluca has won 5 of their last 10 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Tigres UANL won against Toluca?
Tigres UANL has won 3 of their last 10 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Toluca - Tigres UANL were as follows:
17.05.2025
Toluca
-
Tigres UANL
3:0
14.05.2025
Tigres UANL
-
Toluca
1:1
01.02.2025
Toluca
-
Tigres UANL
1:0
06.11.2024
Tigres UANL
-
Toluca
2:1
02.03.2024
Toluca
-
Tigres UANL
2:1
Latest results of Tigres UANL
Mexican Liga MX Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Toluca ✔ | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 39:16 | 23 | 32 |
| 2 | Tigres UANL ✔ | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 31:14 | 17 | 32 |
| 3 | Cruz Azul ✔ | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 27:17 | 10 | 32 |
| 4 | Club America ✔ | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 31:16 | 15 | 31 |
| 5 | Monterrey ✔ | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 30:24 | 6 | 30 |
| 6 | Guadalajara Chivas | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 24:20 | 4 | 23 |
| 7 | Club Tijuana | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 26:19 | 7 | 21 |
| 8 | Pachuca | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 19:17 | 2 | 21 |
| 9 | Juarez | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 24:25 | -1 | 20 |
| 10 | Atl. San Luis | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 20:20 | 0 | 16 |
| 11 | Atlas | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 24:33 | -9 | 16 |
| 12 | UNAM Pumas | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 17:22 | -5 | 15 |
| 13 | Santos Laguna | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 17:23 | -6 | 14 |
| 14 | Queretaro | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 15:25 | -10 | 14 |
| 15 | Mazatlan FC | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 19:27 | -8 | 13 |
| 16 | Club Leon | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 13:27 | -14 | 13 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 15:27 | -12 | 10 |
| 18 | Puebla | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 19:38 | -19 | 9 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Toluca is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Tigres UANL is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Cruz Azul is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Club America is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Monterrey is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
