Result
3:1 penalties
14/12/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Apertura - Play Offs - Final
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, Zapping |
 Mexico | Azteca 7, Azteca Deportes, Canal 5, FOX One, Fox Sports, Tubi TV, TUDN, VIX+, ViX Premium |
 South-america | ViX Latin America |
 Usa | CBS Sports Network, TUDN App, TUDN, Univision |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.70 | 0.44 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 67% | 33% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 30 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 12 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 5 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (545/657) | 65% (209/322) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.70 | 0.44 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.36 | 0.21 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 30 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 12 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 9 | 3 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 15 | 2 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 15 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 5 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 29 | 15 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 16 | 17 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (545/657) | 65% (209/322) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 43% (34/79) | 35% (35/101) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 71% (140/197) | 44% (52/117) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 26% (7/27) | 10% (1/10) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.76 | 0.33 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 34 | 17 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 17 | 16 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 70% (16/23) | 78% (18/23) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 69 | 68 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 16 | 33 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 17 | 17 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 10 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.21 | 1.36 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.79 | -0.64 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 12', Pereira F. 🟨,
- 14', 0 - 1, Gorriaran F. ⚽, Gignac A. (A),
- 40', 1 - 1, Helinho ⚽, Romero F. (A),
- 45+3', Simon S. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Farfan M. ↓, Aquino J. ↑,
- 52', 2 - 1, Paulinho ⚽, Helinho (A),
- 57', Gignac A. ↓, Ibanez N. ↑,
- 64', Correa A. 🟨,
- 69', Paulinho 🟨,
- 73', Helinho ↓, Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ↑,
- 78', Brunetta J. 🟨,
- 80', Angulo J. ↓, Vega A. ↑,
- 90', Brunetta J. ↓, Herrera O. ↑,
- 90+3', Paulinho ↓, Barbosa D. ↑,
- Extra Time (0 - 0)
- 91', Castro N. ↓, Bruno Mendez ↑,
- 96', Gorriaran F. 🟨,
- 105', Lainez D. ↓, Antuna U. ↑,
- 105', Romulo ↓, Vigon J. ↑,
- 112', del Villar E. ↓, Virgen O. ↑,
- 113', Ruiz M. ↓, Arce F. ↑,
- 117', Barbosa D. 🟨,
- Penalties (9 - 8)
- 1, Ibanez N. (Penalty Awarded),
- 1, Vega A. (Penalty Awarded),
- 2, Gorriaran F. (Penalty Awarded),
- 2, Simon S. (Penalty Awarded),
- 3, Herrera O. (Penalty Awarded),
- 3, Pereira F. (Penalty Awarded),
- 4, Antuna U. (Penalty Awarded),
- 4, Gallardo J. (Penalty Awarded),
- 5, Correa A. (Penalty Awarded),
- 5, Romero F. (Penalty Awarded),
- 6, Vigon J. (Penalty Awarded),
- 6, Virgen O. (Penalty Awarded),
- 7, Sanchez J. (Penalty Awarded),
- 7, Arce F. (Penalty Awarded),
- 8, Garza J. (Penalty Awarded),
- 8, Bruno Mendez (Penalty Awarded),
- 9, Aquino J. (Penalty Awarded),
- 9, Barbosa D. (Penalty Awarded),
- 10, Joaquim (Penalty Awarded),
- 10, Dominguez Chonteco J. P. (Penalty Awarded),
- 11, Guzman N. (Penalty Awarded),
- 11, Garcia L. (Penalty Awarded),
- 12, Correa A. (Penalty Awarded),
- 12, Vega A. (Penalty Awarded),
Chances of winning
Toluca
58.2% | Draw
23.7% | Tigres UANL
18.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Toluca - Tigres UANL Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.62 ↓
(1.83) |
3.95 ↑
(3.65) |
5.08 ↑
(4.32) |
6.6%
(5.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Toluca - Tigres UANL?
Users Predictions:
Toluca will win
(16 of 17 users predict this - 94.12%).
Confidence interval (95%): 82.94% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Toluca will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- 1st leg result: 0-1. 2nd leg.
- One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 2.
- The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
- In this match, Toluca is the team to beat.
- There will not play in Toluca: Luan
(Muscle Injury)
Morales R.
(Red Card)
- There are questionable in Toluca: Vega A.
(Muscle Injury)
- There are questionable in Tigres: Angulo J.
(Injury)
Tapia F.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 9 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 31:32. (average 1.6:1.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Toluca won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 21:12. (average 2.3:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Toluca won against Tigres UANL?
Toluca has won 5 of their last 12 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Tigres UANL won against Toluca?
Tigres UANL has won 5 of their last 12 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Toluca - Tigres UANL were as follows:
11.12.2025
Tigres UANL
-
Toluca
1:0
26.07.2025
Toluca
-
Tigres UANL
3:4
17.05.2025
Toluca
-
Tigres UANL
3:0
14.05.2025
Tigres UANL
-
Toluca
1:1
01.02.2025
Toluca
-
Tigres UANL
1:0
Latest results of Tigres UANL
Draw
Apertura - Play OffsQuarter-finals| 1 | Toluca (1) | Juarez (8) | 0 : 0, 2 : 1 |
| 2 | Club America (4) | Monterrey (5) | 2 : 1, 0 : 2 |
| 3 | Tigres UANL (2) | Club Tijuana (7) | 5 : 0, 0 : 3 |
| 4 | Cruz Azul (3) | Guadalajara Chivas (6) | 3 : 2, 0 : 0 |
Semi-finals| 1 | Toluca (1) | Monterrey (5) | 3 : 2, 0 : 1 |
| 2 | Tigres UANL (2) | Cruz Azul (3) | 1 : 1, 1 : 1 |
Final| 1 | Toluca (1) | Tigres UANL (2) | 3 : 1, 0 : 1 |
