Result
6:2
24/09/2025 at 22:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Apertura - Round 10
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Mexico | Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV, Canal 5, Tubi TV, TUDN, VIX+, ViX Premium |
 South-america | ViX Latin America |
 Usa | TUDN App, TUDN |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.40 | 2.55 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 47% | 53% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 24 | 16 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 13 | 7 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (390/452) | 90% (455/508) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.40 | 2.55 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 3.25 | 2.91 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 24 | 16 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 13 | 7 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 8 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 16 | 12 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 28 | 22 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (390/452) | 90% (455/508) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 52% (27/52) | 73% (45/62) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 77% (63/82) | 81% (150/186) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 38% (5/13) | 33% (8/24) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.59 | 1.69 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 10 | 17 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 4 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 47% (9/19) | 80% (8/10) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 30 | 33 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 17 | 11 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.91 | 3.25 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.91 | -2.75 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (4 - 2)
- 10', 0 - 1, Berterame G. ⚽,
- 19', Ramos S. (Pen),
- 23', 1 - 1, Angulo J. ⚽, Simon S. (A),
- 26', 2 - 1, Paulinho ⚽, Vega A. (A),
- 34', 3 - 1, Castro N. ⚽, Romero F. (A),
- 39', 3 - 2, Torres O. ⚽, Aguirre E. (A),
- 40', 4 - 2, Paulinho ⚽, Ruiz M. (A),
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 46', Aguirre E. ↓, Chavez R. ↑,
- 46', Medina S. ↓, Martial A. ↑,
- 46', Corona J. ↓, Guzman V. ↑,
- 52', 5 - 2, Paulinho ⚽,
- 62', 6 - 2, Castro N. ⚽,
- 64', Simon S. ↓, Barbosa D. ↑,
- 64', Angulo J. ↓, Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ↑,
- 74', Canales S. ↓, Ocampos L. ↑,
- 76', Ruiz M. ↓, Morales R. ↑,
- 76', Paulinho ↓, Herrera H. ↑,
- 85', Romero F. ↓, Arce F. ↑,
- 85', Berterame G. ↓, de la Rosa R. ↑,
- 87', Gallardo J. 🟨,
- 90+4', Ramos S. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Toluca
58.8% | Draw
22% | Monterrey
19.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.3%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Toluca's performance.Monterrey has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.1%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Monterrey might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-14.8%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Toluca that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monterrey than the current prediction. (+12.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Monterrey could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Toluca - Monterrey Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.65 ↓
(2.2) |
4.29 ↑
(3.6) |
4.86 ↑
(2.75) |
4.4%
(9.6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Toluca - Monterrey?
Users Predictions:
16 users predict this event. Toluca will win (votes: 11 - 68.8%). Monterrey will win (votes: 2 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 18.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Toluca: 46.1% – 91.5%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 2.
- Toluca has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Monterrey is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- In this match, Toluca is a strong favorite.
- There will not play in Toluca: Bruno Mendez
(Red Card)
Luan
(Injury)
- There will not play in Monterrey: Bustos C.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Toluca: Helinho
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Monterrey: Berterame G.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 27:30. (average 1.4:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Toluca won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 18:10. (average 1.8:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Toluca won against Monterrey?
Toluca has won 3 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Monterrey won against Toluca?
Monterrey has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Toluca - Monterrey were as follows:
10.05.2025
Toluca
-
Monterrey
2:1
07.05.2025
Monterrey
-
Toluca
3:2
18.01.2025
Toluca
-
Monterrey
1:1
31.08.2024
Monterrey
-
Toluca
1:2
18.02.2024
Monterrey
-
Toluca
0:0
Latest results of Monterrey
Mexican Liga MX Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Toluca | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 39:16 | 23 | 31 |
| 2 | Cruz Azul | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 24:16 | 8 | 28 |
| 3 | Club America | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 27:13 | 14 | 27 |
| 4 | Monterrey | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 26:20 | 6 | 27 |
| 5 | Tigres UANL | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 27:13 | 14 | 26 |
| 6 | Pachuca | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 18:15 | 3 | 21 |
| 7 | Club Tijuana | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 26:17 | 9 | 20 |
| 8 | Guadalajara Chivas | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 20:18 | 2 | 20 |
| 9 | Juarez | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 18:17 | 1 | 19 |
| 10 | UNAM Pumas | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 16:20 | -4 | 14 |
| 11 | Atl. San Luis | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 19:20 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 | Santos Laguna | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 15:21 | -6 | 13 |
| 13 | Atlas | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 21:29 | -8 | 13 |
| 14 | Club Leon | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 12:24 | -12 | 12 |
| 15 | Mazatlan FC | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 15:23 | -8 | 11 |
| 16 | Queretaro | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 14:25 | -11 | 11 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 14:26 | -12 | 9 |
| 18 | Puebla | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 14:32 | -18 | 8 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )
