Result
3:2
06/12/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Apertura - Play Offs - Semi-finals
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Mexico | Azteca 7, Azteca Deportes, Canal 5, FOX One, Fox Sports, TUDN, VIX+, ViX Premium |
 Usa | TUDN |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.36 | 1.71 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 50% | 50% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (331/386) | 85% (322/381) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.36 | 1.71 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 3.25 | 2.03 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 11 | 8 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 15 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (331/386) | 85% (322/381) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 40% (20/50) | 65% (53/82) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 70% (60/86) | 66% (63/96) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 36% (4/11) | 13% (2/16) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.48 | 0.34 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 21 | 20 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 15 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 83% (10/12) | 81% (13/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 41 | 44 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 18 | 9 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.03 | 3.25 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.03 | 0.25 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 0)
- 19', 1 - 0, Pereira F. ⚽, Helinho (A),
- 43', 2 - 0, Paulinho ⚽, Castro N. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 2)
- 46', Reyes L. ↓, Martial A. ↑,
- 46', Ambriz F. ↓, Fimbres I. ↑,
- 51', 3 - 0, Helinho (Penalty Awarded),
- 58', 3 - 1, Ramos S. (Penalty Awarded),
- 59', Torres O. ↓, Aguirre E. ↑,
- 59', Chavez R. ↓, de la Rosa R. ↑,
- 62', Helinho ↓, Briseno A. ↑,
- 72', Angulo J. ↓, Morales R. ↑,
- 75', 3 - 2, de la Rosa R. ⚽,
- 78', Rodriguez J. ↓, Ocampos L. ↑,
- 84', Paulinho ↓, Barbosa D. ↑,
- 89', Romero F. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Toluca
65.6% | Draw
19.6% | Monterrey
14.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Toluca - Monterrey Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.44 ↓
(1.68) |
4.73 ↑
(4.15) |
6.28 ↑
(4.43) |
6.7%
(6.4%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
What is the prediction for Toluca - Monterrey?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Toluca (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -1 - Toluca (1.68) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
Users Predictions:
Toluca will win
(7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- 1st leg result: 0-1. 2nd leg.
- The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 2.
- Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
- In this match, Toluca is seen as the favorite.
- There will not play in Toluca: Luan
(Muscle Injury)
Vega A.
(Muscle Injury)
- There will not play in Monterrey: Rodriguez M.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Monterrey: Ocampos L.
(Wrist Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 31:31. (average 1.6:1.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Toluca won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 23:11. (average 2.3:1.1).
How many head-to-head matches has Toluca won against Monterrey?
Toluca has won 4 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Monterrey won against Toluca?
Monterrey has won 3 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Toluca - Monterrey were as follows:
03.12.2025
Monterrey
-
Toluca
1:0
24.09.2025
Toluca
-
Monterrey
6:2
10.05.2025
Toluca
-
Monterrey
2:1
07.05.2025
Monterrey
-
Toluca
3:2
18.01.2025
Toluca
-
Monterrey
1:1
Latest results of Monterrey
Draw
Apertura - Play OffsQuarter-finals| 1 | Toluca (1) | Juarez (8) | 0 : 0, 2 : 1 |
| 2 | Club America (4) | Monterrey (5) | 2 : 1, 0 : 2 |
| 3 | Tigres UANL (2) | Club Tijuana (7) | 5 : 0, 0 : 3 |
| 4 | Cruz Azul (3) | Guadalajara Chivas (6) | 3 : 2, 0 : 0 |
Semi-finals| 1 | Toluca (1) | Monterrey (5) | 3 : 2, 0 : 1 |
| 2 | Tigres UANL (2) | Cruz Azul (3) | 1 : 1, 1 : 1 |
Final| 1 | Toluca (1) | Tigres UANL (2) | 3 : 1, 0 : 1 |
