Result
2:1
10/05/2025 at 21:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Clausura - Play Offs - Quarter-finals
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Mexico | Canal 5, TUDN, VIX+, ViX Premium |
 Usa | TUDN, Univision |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.28 | 0.38 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 35% | 65% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (181/247) | 82% (380/461) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.28 | 0.38 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.27 | 0.58 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 9 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 17 | 30 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (181/247) | 82% (380/461) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 43% (30/69) | 59% (45/76) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 57% (45/79) | 69% (101/147) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 36% (5/14) | 29% (7/24) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.67 | 0.68 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 25 | 18 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 9 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 57% (12/21) | 67% (14/21) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 46 | 48 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 28 | 8 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 12 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.58 | 1.27 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.42 | -0.74 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 12', Barbosa D. 🟨,
- 19', Chavez R. 🟨,
- 21', Helinho 🟥,
- 30', 1 - 0, Vega A. ⚽,
- 37', Ambriz F. ↓, de la Rosa R. ↑,
- 41', Medina S. 🟨,
- 45+1', Paulinho 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Chavez R. ↓, Corona J. ↑,
- 48', 1 - 1, de la Rosa R. ⚽, Fimbres I. (A),
- 48', de la Rosa R. 🟨,
- 56', Herrera H. ↓, Romero F. ↑,
- 56', Angulo J. ↓, Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ↑,
- 69', 2 - 1, Paulinho ⚽,
- 73', Paulinho ↓, Bruno Mendez ↑,
- 77', Medina S. ↓, Reyes L. ↑,
- 77', Rodriguez J. ↓, Torres O. ↑,
- 77', Fimbres I. ↓, Ocampos L. ↑,
- 80', Pereira F. 🟨,
- 90+2', Vega A. ↓, Violante I. ↑,
Chances of winning
Toluca
58.6% | Draw
23% | Monterrey
18.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.3%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Toluca's performance.Monterrey has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Monterrey might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-9.3%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Toluca that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monterrey than the current prediction. (+4.9%)
Toluca - Monterrey Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.63 ↓
(2.07) |
4.08 ↑
(3.3) |
5.1 ↑
(3.88) |
5.3%
(4.4%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Toluca - Monterrey?
Users Predictions:
Toluca will win
(19 of 19 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Toluca will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- 1st leg result: 2-3. 2nd leg.
- One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 2.
- Right now, both teams are showing solid form.
- Monterrey may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Monterrey has had a series of home games.
- In this match, Toluca is the team to beat.
- There will not play in Toluca: Paulinho
(Yellow Cards)
- There will not play in Monterrey: Salcedo C.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Monterrey: Aguirre E.
(Injury)
Ramos S.
(Leg Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 27:30. (average 1.4:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Toluca won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:9. (average 1.8:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Toluca won against Monterrey?
Toluca has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Monterrey won against Toluca?
Monterrey has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Toluca - Monterrey were as follows:
07.05.2025
Monterrey
-
Toluca
3:2
18.01.2025
Toluca
-
Monterrey
1:1
31.08.2024
Monterrey
-
Toluca
1:2
18.02.2024
Monterrey
-
Toluca
0:0
30.08.2023
Toluca
-
Monterrey
1:0
Latest results of Monterrey
Mexican Liga MX Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Toluca | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:3 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Pachuca | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:2 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Club America | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Atlas | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6:5 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Mazatlan FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:1 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Club Tijuana | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | -1 | 4 |
| 7 | Tigres UANL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Santos Laguna | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:5 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Necaxa | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:4 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Atl. San Luis | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Club Leon | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Puebla | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:5 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | UNAM Pumas | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:6 | -2 | 3 |
| 14 | Monterrey | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1:3 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3:3 | 0 | 2 |
| 16 | Juarez | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2:3 | -1 | 2 |
| 17 | Guadalajara Chivas | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Queretaro | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1:6 | -5 | 0 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )
