Result
0:3
21/02/2026 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Clausura - Round 7
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Mexico | Azteca 7, Azteca Deportes, Claro Sports, VIX+, ViX Premium |
 South-america | ViX Latin America |
 Usa | TUDN App, TUDN, Univision |
 Venezuela | Inter |
 World | Pluto TV |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.47 | 2.22 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 45% | 55% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 20 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 7 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 72% (224/312) | 76% (283/373) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.47 | 2.22 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.91 | 2.03 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 20 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 0 | 7 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 15 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 7 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 16 | 32 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 72% (224/312) | 76% (283/373) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 41% (27/66) | 44% (28/64) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 59% (52/88) | 63% (78/124) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 29% (4/14) | 39% (9/23) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.61 | 1.79 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 21 | 34 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 8 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 68% (15/22) | 72% (13/18) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 48 | 39 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 21 | 15 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 11 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.03 | 0.91 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.97 | 0.91 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 9', Martinez R. 🟨,
- 14', Ruiz M. 🟨,
- 22', Monreal R. 🟨,
- 22', Gallardo J. 🟨,
- 29', Pena A. 🟨,
- 37', Pereira F. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 3)
- 52', Unsain E. 🟨,
- 57', Pena A. ↓, Ruiz J. ↑,
- 57', Almendra A. E. ↓, Lara E. ↑,
- 62', Perez P. ↓, Diaz J. ↑,
- 75', Angulo J. ↓, Cordova S. ↑,
- 76', Carranza J. ↓, Badaloni T. ↑,
- 79', 0 - 1, Paulinho ⚽, Diaz J. (A),
- 83', 0 - 2, Paulinho ⚽, Diaz J. (A),
- 85', Gallardo J. ↓, Isais M. ↑,
- 85', Simon S. ↓, Luan ↑,
- 85', Paulinho ↓, Rossi F. ↑,
- 87', Leyva D. ↓, Gutierrez K. ↑,
- 87', Martinez R. ↓, Rossano F. ↑,
- 90+4', 0 - 3, Pereira F. ⚽, Cordova S. (A),
Chances of winning
Necaxa
18.3% | Draw
24.1% | Toluca
57.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Necaxa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Necaxa's form might have worsened.Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Toluca's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Necaxa than the current prediction. (+5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-5.4%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Toluca, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Necaxa - Toluca Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
5.12 ↑
(3.93) |
3.92 ↑
(3.74) |
1.65 ↓
(1.86) |
5.7%
(5.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Necaxa - Toluca?
Users Predictions:
7 users predict this event. Necaxa will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Toluca will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +1 - Necaxa (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Necaxa (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 10 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Necaxa won 0.
- Recent performances by Necaxa have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Toluca is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Necaxa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Toluca is seen as the favorite.
- There will not play in Necaxa: Lara E.
(Injury)
- There will not play in Toluca: Vega A.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Necaxa: Rosero K.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Toluca: Castro N.
(Injury)
Helinho
(Muscle Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Necaxa won 3 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 20:36. (average 1:1.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Necaxa won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:14. (average 1.2:1.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Necaxa won against Toluca?
Necaxa has won 0 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Toluca won against Necaxa?
Toluca has won 4 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Necaxa - Toluca were as follows:
12.07.2025
Toluca
-
Necaxa
3:1
08.03.2025
Toluca
-
Necaxa
5:2
27.10.2024
Necaxa
-
Toluca
1:3
10.02.2024
Necaxa
-
Toluca
3:3
02.07.2023
Toluca
-
Necaxa
0:0
Mexican Liga MX Table
Clausura | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | UNAM Pumas | 17 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 34:17 | 17 | 36 |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 33:17 | 16 | 36 |
| 3 | Cruz Azul | 17 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 31:18 | 13 | 33 |
| 4 | Pachuca | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 25:19 | 6 | 31 |
| 5 | Toluca | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 28:16 | 12 | 30 |
| 6 | Atlas | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 16:18 | -2 | 26 |
| 7 | Tigres UANL | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 28:18 | 10 | 25 |
| 8 | Club America | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 20:17 | 3 | 25 |
| 9 | Club Tijuana | 17 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 19:17 | 2 | 23 |
| 10 | Club Leon | 17 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 22:32 | -10 | 22 |
| 11 | Queretaro | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 17:21 | -4 | 20 |
| 12 | Juarez | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 26:32 | -6 | 19 |
| 13 | Monterrey | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 22:24 | -2 | 18 |
| 14 | Atl. San Luis | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 24:27 | -3 | 18 |
| 15 | Necaxa | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 19:25 | -6 | 18 |
| 16 | Mazatlan FC | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 22:37 | -15 | 15 |
| 17 | Puebla | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 13:26 | -13 | 13 |
| 18 | Santos Laguna | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 20:38 | -18 | 12 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
