Toluca vs New York City – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football CONCACAF League Cup Toluca - New York City
Result
2:1
05/08/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Leagues Cup - Round 3
  • Where to Watch on TV:
usaUsaMLS Season Pass
worldWorldApple TV

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.130.49
Ball Possession
44%56%
Total shots
139
Shots on target
63
Big Chances
42
Corner Kicks
24
Passes
78% (292/375)80% (389/484)
Yellow Cards
42
Expected Goals (xG)
2.130.49
xG on target (xGOT)
1.841.06
Total shots
139
Shots on target
63
Shots off target
44
Blocked Shots
32
Shots inside the Box
95
Shots outside the Box
44
Hit the Woodwork
21
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
42
Corner Kicks
24
Touches in opposition box
2425
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
42
Free Kicks
1310
Passes
78% (292/375)80% (389/484)
Long passes
44% (28/63)29% (14/49)
Passes in final third
60% (51/85)67% (102/153)
Crosses
32% (6/19)14% (3/22)
Expected assists (xA)
1.350.44
Throw-ins
2217
Fouls
1013
Tackles
78% (14/18)70% (16/23)
Duels won
5247
Clearances
4016
Interceptions
159
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
24
xGOT faced
1.061.84
Goals prevented
0.06-0.16

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 1)
  • 10', 0 - 1, Martinez A. , Ojeda A. (A),
  • 31', Gray T. , Ilenic M. ,
  • 37', 1 - 1, Angulo J. ,
  • 39', 2 - 1, Paulinho , Angulo J. (A),
  • 45+8', Pereira F. 🟨,
  • 45+8', Gallardo J. 🟨,
  • 45+8', O'Neill A. 🟨,
  • 45+9', Tanasijevic S. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 57', Romero F. 🟨,
  • 59', Mercau N. , Wolf H. ,
  • 60', Ojeda A. , Fernandez J. ,
  • 60', Tanasijevic S. , Shore J. ,
  • 69', Castro H. , Castro N. ,
  • 69', Angulo J. , Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ,
  • 79', Vega A. , Morales R. ,
  • 79', Paulinho , Arce F. ,
  • 83', Haak J. , Garfield Reid S. ,
  • 87', Morales R. 🟨,
  • 90+2', Romero F. , Briseno A. ,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Toluca
49.4%
Draw
23.1%
New York City
27.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
53.3% 23.7% 23%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.6% 23.1% 22.5%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)
  • New York City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (+5.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Toluca, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for New York City than the current prediction. (-4.9%)
  • Toluca - New York City Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.91
    (1.76)
    4.04
    (3.95)
    3.41
    (4.07)
    6.4%
    (6.8%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
  • What is the prediction for Toluca - New York City?
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • Users Predictions: Toluca will win (12 of 15 users predict this - 80%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 59.76%100%.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • Right now, both teams are showing solid form.
    • Toluca will hold a modest advantage in this match.
    • Recently, the teams have not faced each other.
    Latest results of Toluca
    01.08.2025 Toluca - CF Montréal 2:1
    29.07.2025 Toluca - Columbus Crew 2:2
    26.07.2025 Toluca - Tigres UANL 3:4
    20.07.2025 Club América - Toluca 1:3
    16.07.2025 Santos Laguna - Toluca 2:4
    Latest results of New York City
    CONCACAF League Cup Table
    Main

    Liga MX
    PlWWOLOLPts
    1Toluca321006:48
    2Pachuca320106:47
    3Tigres UANL320017:46
    4Puebla320016:46
    5Juarez311107:46
    6Guadalajara Chivas311014:45
    7Mazatlan FC311013:35
    8UNAM Pumas311015:65
    9Atl. San Luis311014:65
    10Club America302106:65
    11Necaxa310116:84
    12Cruz Azul302013:104
    13Club Tijuana310025:83
    14Monterrey301023:62
    15Club Leon300121:41
    16Queretaro300031:60
    17Atlas300033:90
    18Santos Laguna300032:80


    MLS
    PlWWOLOLPts
    1Seattle Sounders3300011:29
    2Inter Miami321007:48
    3Los Angeles Galaxy3201010:37
    4Orlando City320109:37
    5Portland Timbers320106:17
    6Columbus Crew320106:37
    7Real Salt Lake311105:46
    8Los Angeles FC311104:36
    9New York Red Bulls311103:26
    10Minnesota United310117:64
    11FC Cincinnati310116:64
    12Colorado Rapids310115:54
    13Charlotte310115:64
    14Atlanta Utd310027:73
    15San Diego FC310025:53
    16New York City310023:53
    17CF Montreal301023:52
    18Houston Dynamo300032:80

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