Result
2:1
05/08/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Leagues Cup - Round 3
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Usa | MLS Season Pass |
 World | Apple TV |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.13 | 0.49 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 44% | 56% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (292/375) | 80% (389/484) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.13 | 0.49 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.84 | 1.06 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 5 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 24 | 25 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (292/375) | 80% (389/484) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 44% (28/63) | 29% (14/49) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 60% (51/85) | 67% (102/153) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 32% (6/19) | 14% (3/22) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.35 | 0.44 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 22 | 17 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 78% (14/18) | 70% (16/23) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 52 | 47 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 40 | 16 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 15 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.06 | 1.84 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.06 | -0.16 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 1)
- 10', 0 - 1, Martinez A. ⚽, Ojeda A. (A),
- 31', Gray T. ↓, Ilenic M. ↑,
- 37', 1 - 1, Angulo J. ⚽,
- 39', 2 - 1, Paulinho ⚽, Angulo J. (A),
- 45+8', Pereira F. 🟨,
- 45+8', Gallardo J. 🟨,
- 45+8', O'Neill A. 🟨,
- 45+9', Tanasijevic S. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 57', Romero F. 🟨,
- 59', Mercau N. ↓, Wolf H. ↑,
- 60', Ojeda A. ↓, Fernandez J. ↑,
- 60', Tanasijevic S. ↓, Shore J. ↑,
- 69', Castro H. ↓, Castro N. ↑,
- 69', Angulo J. ↓, Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ↑,
- 79', Vega A. ↓, Morales R. ↑,
- 79', Paulinho ↓, Arce F. ↑,
- 83', Haak J. ↓, Garfield Reid S. ↑,
- 87', Morales R. 🟨,
- 90+2', Romero F. ↓, Briseno A. ↑,
Chances of winning
Toluca
49.4% | Draw
23.1% | New York City
27.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)New York City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (+5.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Toluca, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for New York City than the current prediction. (-4.9%)
Toluca - New York City Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.91 ↑
(1.76) |
4.04 ↑
(3.95) |
3.41 ↓
(4.07) |
6.4%
(6.8%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
What is the prediction for Toluca - New York City?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
Toluca will win
(12 of 15 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.76% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- Right now, both teams are showing solid form.
- Toluca will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- Recently, the teams have not faced each other.
How many head-to-head matches has Toluca won against New York City?
Toluca has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has New York City won against Toluca?
New York City has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Toluca - New York City were as follows:
Latest results of New York City
Draw
Play OffsQuarter-finals| 1 | Los Angeles Galaxy | Pachuca | 2 : 1 |
| 2 | Seattle Sounders | Puebla | 1 : 0 |
| 3 | Inter Miami | Tigres UANL | 2 : 1 |
| 4 | Toluca | Orlando City | 0 : 1 |
Semi-finals| 1 | Los Angeles Galaxy | Seattle Sounders | 0 : 2 |
| 2 | Inter Miami | Orlando City | 3 : 1 |
Final| 1 | Seattle Sounders | Inter Miami | 3 : 0 |
3rd place| 2 | Los Angeles Galaxy | Orlando City | 2 : 1 |
